...I know the article is in the sensationalist DM, but thought I'd ask anyway - is it possible to predict with any kind of likelihood this far in advance? When we see reports like this, does it mean, it could snow, as in it is technically possible, or that it may well, or that it is likely that it will?
Basically, should we start to plan for a long cold winter!
Well apparently we are having another cycle of La Nina which made the winter so cold last year... and all signs are pointing to another cold winter like the solar activity and all that. I'm ready anyway just in case with clip on shoe/boot crampons, warm clothes, stockpiled logs and all that!
It is not possible to predict that far in advance with any certainty but we can start to look at possibilities.
Lubeybooby is correct in that it does look like La Nina is stating to come into being again and this does seem to correlate quite well with colder, early winters over northern Europe.
We need to also keep an eye on the north atlantic oscillation which at the moment is positive When this is negative it means that the jet stream tends to be shifted far south of its usual position, so that the (usually mild, wet windy) atlantic weather is steered towards southern europe, leaving us much more susceptible to cold air from northern continental europe.
Going back to your question. It is quite possible that some parts will see snow in Oct/Nov - its not that unusual for say parts of the peak district and hilly parts of Scotland and Wales. So if that were to occur it would not be particularly out of the ordinary. Who knows whether this winter will be a repeat of the last couple of years? All we know at the moment is that some of the factors that made last year happen seem to be falling into place again.
I've been meaning to look for your opinion on this since I first heard snow in October mentioned OYBBK. I really hoped you'd say it'd be Scotland though.
I'm due DC2 October 24th. Parents live in Sheffield, we live just over the other side of the Pennines. Last year the 2 roads between our houses were shut umpteen times, one of them was shut for 3 weeks. My Dad hates driving in rain never mind snow. In-laws live 40 miles away in the other direction... so would be able to get to us.... if they weren't on holiday in the Philipines and Cambodia when LO is due. (it was booked before I got pregnant.)
I need to sort out a contingency plan.... or get Mum to come and live with us if the weather looks bad.
It might be just Scotland, or it might be nowhere bilblio. Personally I've been stranded in the Pennines when we had ridiculous heavy snowfall one October afternoon, so it is always a possibility. Good idea to have a contingency! Would be a horrible scenario....
I'll keep my fingers crossed it's November, and I don't go overdue.
We're only 5-10 minutes from the hospital, but last November our road was only passable with a 4x4 for a few days.... and we don't have a 4x4. I've been meaning to ask the neighbours if they mind being woken in the middle of the night if things happen quickly.... like last time.
DD was born in 2007 on the day large parts of southern England flooded and FIL couldn't get here, he was stuck on a motorway watching cars float past him... it'd be typical if this one was born in the middle of similar weather chaos.