Friday's weather - potential travel problem

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm giving this post a thread of its own. It may come to nothing and I may end up being thought about as rather like 'Chicken little' but I'm somewhat surprised that though the met office have a number of advisories up they aren't advising about this aspect.

The forecast (and remember things change!) for Friday looks very interesting . A weather system moves across from the NW to the SE. It could end up being a rain/sleet/wet snow/freezing rain situation.

In particular I think people should be aware that evening rush-hour could be nightmarish for some in the SE and CS England - the councils are going to have a real challenge to work out when to grit. Too early - and it gets washed away - too late and the snow starts laying while the traffic is slower and the gritters can't do anything.

So, if you have rain Friday afternoon, keep a really close eye on the temps and how hard the rain falls - heavy rain when temps are close to freezing can under some conditions turn to snow and if you need to travel Friday afternoon/evening be aware that the traffic situation could possibly become rather horrid and standstillish. (rather like the week Monday before Christmas last year in fact)

Will try to update daily and let you know if this event is getting more or less likely to occur.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok - latest GFS model run delays things until friday night - which would probably make it more likely to be snow but less likely to grind part of the country to a complete halt through Friday tea time.

It will be interesting to see what tomorrow mornings model run brings. (the latest one also gives a complete snow fest for Saturday night into Sunday for a large part of England and Wales.)

[CathyTheMonkey]

OYBBK - you are a gem. Thanks for all the weather reports. DH and I are supposed to be going away for a romantic weekend this weekend I'm just hoping we don't get stranded there

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

:) you are very welcome. I hope your wishes come true!

[CathyTheMonkey]

Oh and I know it was aaaaages ago, but how has your hand healed up? I am reg but compulsive name changer - might have been SamVimes summat or other then, can't remember. I hate this blardy name change. Can't remember why I did it! Will find better one (not hard) later.

[Fimbo]

Noooooo. I do like "proper" snow for building snowmen and the like but I am going out on Saturday night to an 80's do and really really don't want to get stranded in my "outfit". Arrgghh.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It is really good thank you :) I'm amazed by it. It just looks rather crinkly really and the colour (unless I'm hot or had a little bit to drink) looks near normal. No restricted movement or anything!!! You'd never know it was such a horrid thing.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

lol Fimbo!!!!! It really would be like a throw back to the '80's!

[CathyTheMonkey]

LOL @ fimbo being stuck out looking like <a class="break-all" href="http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=www.thecheapdesignerpurses.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/1980s-fahion-styles.jpg&imgrefurl=www.thecheapdesignerpurses.com/blog/1980s-fashion/&usg=__t5PRJV9G8QiCdCxtvRMqgoR4G0Q=&h=424&w=283&sz=187&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=m0rdpr_QEmHqXM:&tbnh=107&tbnw=69&prev=/images%3Fq%3D1980%2527s%2Bfashion%26hl%3Den%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D618%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:10%2C163&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=411&vpy=236&dur=110&hovh=275&hovw=183&tx=103&ty=137&ei=rvbrTInbMNOahQfHr5jODA&oei=qfbrTJvEO8mWhQeX4unNDA&esq=2&page=1&ndsp=26&ved=1t:429,r:19,s:0&biw=1280&bih=618" rel="nofollow noindex" target="_blank">this or maybe <a class="break-all" href="http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=www.eightiesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/81_physical_98.jpg&imgrefurl=www.eightiesonline.com/eighties-fashion/more-80s-fashion-and-style&usg=__nOIx_OXPD0ks52DSKEIaCWl9NVE=&h=478&w=322&sz=37&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=aZbdx3PZv5R5HM:&tbnh=115&tbnw=78&prev=/images%3Fq%3D1980%2527s%2Bfashion%26hl%3Den%26biw%3D1280%26bih%3D618%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=239&ei=5vbrTNXZNYyEhQflzfzMDA&oei=qfbrTJvEO8mWhQeX4unNDA&esq=12&page=1&ndsp=26&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0&tx=16&ty=56" rel="nofollow noindex" target="_blank">this

That's great news about the hand OYBBK - it did sound AWFUL when you did it.

[Fimbo]

Lol yes, I remember my cousin and I getting stuck in snow one night at 5 o'clock whilst leaving work (worked in same office) and we ended up abandoning her car at the side of the road and walking, it just kept coming and we were in snow up to our knees whilst wobbling around in stilettos. I think we may have abandoned shoes in the end too.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Fimbo this must be a picture of you then (scroll down a bit)

[Fimbo]

Yes thats me!



Only joking but that is exactly what it was like!

[laughalot]

Oh no iv got to get from nottingham to southampton on friday we are going on a cruise for my birthday

[hmc]

I've got to go from Salisbury to Cotswold water park for a weekend away with the gels!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

laughalot what are your timings like for travelling? If in the daytime, then at the moment the gfs model shows the southern half ok, so you may just need to clear your area. Will update properly tomorrow. even a day is a long time in snow forecasting and it may well be all change again.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

system moves much slower on the midnight run of GFS not really arrivng in SE. Friday night chaos may be averted. Next update mid/late morning.

tis ever the problem with forecasting much in advance (and why the met office are a multi million pound successful organisation and I am an unpaid Mum sat at my desk!)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think - having read a decent analysis of what the different models are showing that gfs isn't really inline with the other models at the moment. This is one of my problems - overly relying on gfs because it is easy.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

GFS is sticking to its theme on the 06Z of not pushing the snow/rain south.

[laughalot]

Thanks for your updates we will be travelling friday morning around 9 ish we dont sail until saturday but dh wanted to go the day before in case of any problems .

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

lol!!!At least you've allowed plenty of time!

[WilfShelf]

Do we know more precisely where the snow line will be yet OYBBK?

Am Midlands/Cheshire border?

[DanceInTheDark]

OYBBK - can you give a rough guess where the snow will lie? Our boiler was kind of working until the man came to look at it and now its barely working We can borrow a heater tomo if things look prolonged over south manchester.

(nol pressure or anything!)

[DanceInTheDark]

Actually - i just read this and will dig out the sleeping bags and hot water bottles.!!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think that is a good idea. The doom and gloom I forecast for friday seems to have evaporated, but it is going to be bloody cold and there will be snow about. Not quite sure where - losing the plot slightly at the moment - different models have been saying different stuff.

[DanceInTheDark]

I just saw your post on a different thread.

You put too much pressure on yourself to get it right for everyone :) Even the pro's can't agree!

[EnnisDelMar]

It's so confusing...seems that all the different sites are predicting totally different things, and are also changing their minds all the time. Especially the met office!

We're going from light snow to no snow to sun and cloud and rain.

I guess some weather fronts are difficult to predict.