OYBBK- chances of a white christmas?

[CherryMonster]

what do you think? will the uk be buried under 6 foot of snow, or will cheltenham be cold, wet and windy?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

blimey CM - not quite sure I can really help you with that one. The charts I can see only go out to 1st December and even then they are rather entering fantasy land. I guess the most I can say is that at the moment, you have as much chance as you did last year - so far it seems like a similar setup in the run up.

[CherryMonster]

well last year we had snow a week before christmas, and more a week after christmas, but no actual white christmas. was very disappointed

[DancingIceDragons]

I like that view CM - it helps with my holiday plans.

PLease keep us informed if the situation is likely to change OYBBK.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Will do. As soon as it appears in the charts, I'll do a bit of a count down.

[CherryMonster]

dancingicedragons- which bit of it did you like?

[DidEinsteinsMum]

No snow between the 24th and 26th as i have around 500miles to drive within that time late at eveing on roads that are likely to be shut by snow. Not sure i like the idea of snow for new year though as has a repeat 1 day round trip of that just before new year.

[DidEinsteinsMum]

Shit forgot the name change again. sorry.
Am also dancing.

All i can say though is Bring on the snow. I love snow and cold crisp weather. just dont like having to drive in it so much.

[Unwind]

Any updates on this? Only because I am planning a 300 mile drive for Christmas, and am wondering whether to invest in snow chains/winter tyres

[winterpetunia]

They were reporting on News24 this morning that this cold snap could last into the New Year! It's probably a bit early to say what the actual weather will be like e.g whether we'll have snow etc but I think it was on TheWeatherOutlook website that they were saying there's an increased chance of snow over Christmas.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Petunia is right in all that she says :)

At the moment the GFS model reaches out to the 20th. You can imagine how unreliable it is in that time frame!!!! but it shows lots and lots of precipitation and temps below freezing for the 20th. at the moment nothing indicates us flipping to mild westerlies.

I'm strongly considering winter tyres - dh has a lot of driving over the next few weeks.

[Unwind]

Thanks OYSSK

I think I'll go for the cheaper option of snow socks or snow chains

and a shovel

[duckyfuzz]

I got winter tyres fitted today :) I'm now wondering why BBC says our temp will be up to 6 or 7 by the end of the week, but met office says still around 0

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Christmas is not quite in the models I can see yet but ee by gum it looks a cold run up to Christmas after a milder interlude for 3-4 days at the end of this week.

[Unwind]

right, I'm ordering lots of emergency snow gear now

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I've just ordered some yaktrax for myself.
Would have got them for dh but they are out of stock in his size - oh well, I did offer to get some for him a couple of weeks ago.

Next week is still showing a high building to our north (or thereabouts) It looks huge!

And for Christmas eve GFS shows.......

dramatic pause.......

drum roll......

.......A huge gigantic snow fest. aaaarghhhhhh - seriously, it is the only model I can look at in detail that far out and of course it is way off into la-la land where forecasting is concerned. the model reaches midnight of 23rd/24th. Lots of precipitation and temps below freezing for the whole of the week running up to Christmas showing.

blimey. If it comes off there won't be much going off to visit relatives and what not.

[sethstarkaddersmum]

Putting it a different way, is there any chance at all that I will get the last of my tulip bulbs in?
I am thinking not

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Probably not in the ground!! Could you plant them in a bucket or a tub and put that in a shed and then transfer them in spring? Not the ideal way but better than letting them rot.

[sethstarkaddersmum]

yes, I think that will be the way to go

my compost is probably frozen though!

[winterpetunia]

What the metoffice are saying at the moment for Christmas week:
UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Dec 2010 to Thursday 6 Jan 2011:

For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain very cold, well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and the risk of ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.

Perhaps you could use one of <a class="break-all" href="http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/941/697866.JPG&imgrefurl=lamourelectronique.blogspot.com/2008/09/negativ-and-non-negativ.html&usg=__yhydXc67-fjHcNwEWXzU_MAZ8LY=&h=460&w=425&sz=33&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=xkvUVjj8C3QglM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=71&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dpneumatic%2Bdrill%26hl%3Den%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D624%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=598&vpy=185&dur=144&hovh=234&hovw=216&tx=127&ty=149&ei=Jnn_TOfwEtS7hAei2dTLCQ&oei=Jnn_TOfwEtS7hAei2dTLCQ&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=19&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0" rel="nofollow noindex" target="_blank">these for putting tulip bulbs in the frozen ground! Good for digging up veg as well!

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

looked at the next GFS model run for the 24th - now goes to 6am. It shows warm air moving in from the SW and gigantic bucket loads of precipitation everywhere. The temps are really different to the earlier model run so it shows that you really can't take individual model runs seriously this far in advance.

[fatsatsuma]

But OYSSK - by 'precipitation' do you mean snow??

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

looking at the temperatures given that particular model run then it would probably a mix - rain in the SW, turning more wintery probably the further north you go.

I bet the next run will look all different anyway - it usually does!

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Well GFS goes up to midnight on Christmas Eve :)

DISCLAIMER: Models are never accurate at this range, they can show a trend perhaps, but not any detail and other models may completely contradict them! As more models start to show Christmas I will talk about what they are showing too.

GFS Model now shows the warm air not really making it to the UK - just tickling parts of the SW and perhaps south. Lots and lots of snow showing up for the whole of the week running up to Christmas, perhaps confining itself more to coasts by the end of the week

[Saltire]

So what chance then of parents getting from South West scotland (dumfries area) to York? on 24th?

[Unwind]

Never have I planned to do so much driving around Christmas.