GCSE predicted grades from Year 6 Sara results

[PAtothegruesometwosome]

Our son is in Year 10 and his first year of his GCSE's.

We've been very side swiped by the school and received a report for our son that states he is predicted to only achieve a level 3 in most of his results. They have told us in a letter that they are based on their Sats results from when they were in Year 6.

This is the first that I've heard from the school that my son is so far behind. To now find out he is potentially not even due to gain any passes is horrifying. All parents evening and reports previously he has always been on target.

To say that this is a complete shock to the system and no follow up from the schools has really angered and worried me in equal measures. I've got a meeting next week and want to know why we are only just finding out now that this is the case and what they, us and our son can do to improve upon this.

Our son is very articulate and I believed to be doing well in school, having had no concerns raised at all before this point.

Does anyone have any advice on how to address this with the school? What we can do to ensure that he at least gains the minimum pass rates to enable him to go onto study his BTEC he has been desperate to do for years?

I don't want this to come across as a pushy parent, as that really isn't the case and I understand fully that if he is genuinely not academically able to obtain level 4/5's to pass then I understand. My main issue here is that it is such a shock to find this out now and am worried about my sons self esteem as he is upset and shocked by this news too.

Any experiences of this, advice, help or guidance really appreciated.

Thank you.

[handmademitlove]

What were his SAT results?

[noblegiraffe]

If it’s based on his KS2 results then it is not what he is predicted to get in his GCSEs, but his targets, because the data is nearly 4 years out of date. You should also have predicted grades which are what his teachers think he will actually get in his GCSEs. These could be higher or lower than his KS2-based targets.

Presumably he got below the expected level at KS2? This would mean that he would be expected to get below expected (pass) in his GCSEs. Unfortunately this isn’t well communicated at primary and people will say things like ‘oh they’re so young, they’ll catch up’ giving parents a false sense of security.

So the first question is what do his teachers think he will get based on his current attainment?

If that is below a pass, then you need to figure out what he needs to proceed to his chosen next level. Maths and English are a priority, then look at requirements for college courses (may be 5 GCSEs at 4+).

Ask the school about intervention and after school support sessions that your DS could attend. They will also most likely have passwords for online packages he can use to do independent work. Buying the appropriate CGP workbooks and working through them at home is also useful.

[Ylvamoon]

My DD has the same problem...
She is in year 11.
She has worked soo hard in secondary school. Only to be told numerous times that her target is below pass and she shouldstay in loer sets. We managed to move her to higher sets through pestering the school/ teachers. All backed up by her overall performance ...
The system is flawed, in their eyes nobody is allowed to improve and grow. OR it's about performance tables. Classified failing students suddenly pass because of the schools fabulous teaching and support.

[RedskyAtnight]

yes, what everyone else said.
You need to distinguish between "targets" which are based on SATS (so if your child had low SATS results they will have low targets) and "likely to achieve" predictions which are based on how your child is currently doing in class.

the second thing is important, the first thing is of no value to your child (the school will care because that's how they get measured).

It's also worth noting that if your DC is in year 10, they are the first year group to have taken "new style" SATS, so these "predictions" are literally guesses - there is no data at all about how new style SATS results correlate with GCSE results.

[RedskyAtnight]

Ylvamoon I think it is your school that is flawed, not the system!!
Your child should be able to progress according to their ability, not stuck in a low set because of a result at age 11.
And most schools do do this!!

[Johnathonripples]

Presumably he had below average sats results in yr 6, so you knew in year 6 that he had a bit of catching up to do (although his current targets are only just below the pass mark aren’t they?).
As people have already said, it’s more about what his teachers think he is capable of doing now rather than targets based on exams he did a few years back.

[knackeredmumoftwo]

Don't panic and talk to school ASAP, our kids are the first year of the new curriculum and using sats to predict GCSE performance is beyond stupid if you ask me.

My son also year 10 targets from DATs are 4/5 and he's achieving 7/9s in some and 6s in the rest - it's a farce so schools can show they have added value in my opinion.

Plus performance at 11 in maths and English is not a reliable indicator of performance in subjects they actually love, or the new curriculum or the new really hard GCSEs - talk to school I'm sure it will help x

[Ylvamoon]

43RedskyAtnight - you clearly have not had any of these problems. It is really like that. The low target grades do follow pupils around. And in a system where teaching is very inconsistent (due to teachers leaving mid year...), the one thing that a pupil is judged by is target grades, whatever their ability. The "Oh why are you in my x class with y target- you better move to a y class" is very familiar to us. Chat with school - of course DC can stay in x class (where DC does very well) . Next new teacher, same thing again. Very demoralizing for DC.

[TeenPlusTwenties]

OP My DD is y10 and she scored 100, 97, 96 in her SATs.

Her current predictions are based on SATs, CATs, attainment in KS3, and results in class tests.
As y10&y11 progress predictions will change to be more biased towards what she's actually been achieving in y10/y11 rather than historical data.
At Christmas she was predicted to pass everything, even though SATs will have led to her formal target for maths probably being a 3.

Is he having tests/exams which are graded? For some subjects DD has been doing tests with real GCSE questions and being given approximate grade as well as marks. Generally her grades are 4/5, which is giving me confidence.

So what everyone else said really. Are these predictions taking current attainment into account, or just generated from KS2 SATs?