5th-10th position in waiting list / 35 metres away from offer - chances?

[Jomomope]

Unfortunately my son has not been offered a place in our 1st choice school.
Based on the published cut off distance we are 35 metres away from an offer. My guess is that we will be in the 5th-10th position in the waiting list to be confirmed on the 15th.
Any experience on getting an offer at the first round (acceptance/declines)? Any sense of our chances of getting a place in a outstanding school in London (35 metres!)?
Thanks,

[Mary21]

If it's in an area where lots go private chances are probibly good

[NotCitrus]

How big is the school?

[Jomomope]

North London. Muswell Hill. Intake of 232 pupils.