Predicted grades in YR10 how accurate

[Fleurdelise]

Hi all! DS is in year 10 and we just had his mock GCSEs exams results. From your experience how accurate are they? Obviously I know they can go up and down but what should I expect?

I am asking because DS is on track to achieve really good results but I can never see him revising. Ever. He does his homework, apparently he's lovely in class and participates well to the lessons but is that enough?

Can I relax and trust the mocks and the teachers telling me he is doing fine?

[Fleurdelise]

Nobody? No experience about how many of the predicted grades became reality in your DCs case?

[NewLife4Me]

hello fleur.

They were pretty accurate when my two took theirs, but it was a while ago now.
I think there were a couple of borderline results, but unfortunately in the actual exam they went down rather than up.

Sorry can't help more.

[noblegiraffe]

Teachers can't predict the future, so while we try our best to be accurate, look on a predicted grade as a ballpark figure until the actual mocks.

In maths and English, because we won't know the grade boundaries until after they've sat the exam, and because there is currently a consultation going on about changing how many of the top grades are awarded, we might as well roll a die.

[ChalkHearts]

I think teachers would expect you to increase one grade between Y10 mocks and GCSEs.

With the caveat that nobody knows what the new maths and English exams will really be like.

[ChalkHearts]

Also I think they do a lot of revising in class.

Which is why my DS never needs to do any at home.

[crazycatguy]

I'm a teacher and don't trust them much. They do at least take societal factors into consideration, one student five years ago had his go down solely on the basis he'd moved house.

In most of my cases they're wrong, but kids get stressed out by them and teachers are held to ransom by them.

[ChalkHearts]

Crazy - the OP is talking about mock results - not predicted grades.

Do you trust your own mock exams?

[Fleurdelise]

Thank you all! My question comes from the fact that DS had mock exams in March and we had parents evening last week. His grades at GCSEs next year are now predicted as a mix of what he achieved in the mocks and the level he is working in class.

He is predicted As and A*s with two exceptions, Chemistry a B but capable of an A if he pushes for it and Computer Science a C.

So while I would like to relax and stop nagging I am now wondering if there is a chance that they will drop dramatically by next year.

With regards to maths and English I am again puzzled, he got 7 in mocks in maths and 8 in English (predicted a 7-8 in maths next year and 9??? In English). So how can the teachers mark an 7-8 in these if they don't yet know the boundaries in these subjects?

I know it may come across as a stealt boast but I am worried that we will relax and believe the above will be achieved and come to a big surprise next year. The lack of revision at home is worrying me.

[ChalkHearts]

Lack of revision, for bright kids, I think is normal nowadays.

They really do a lot of revision in class. Because the teacher cares a lot (i.e. her pay is related to) how her pupils do. She can't afford to leave revision to home. Therefore they do it in class.

I think you can relax. His grades aren't likely to drop.

Teachers don't know if he'll get a 6,7,8 or 9. But they're using their best guess. 7 is meant to be the same as an A last year. So a 7 means he's currently working at an A.

[catslife]

Am not sure yet as dd in Y11 has her exams to come in a few weeks.
If the Y10 mocks only covered the material studied in class from September to March then it is hard to say exactly how accurate they are. For some subjects they may have covered the easier parts of the course and in others the content covered may be more difficult. In Y11 they will have mock papers that cover the entire course and then you can be more certain about the results and which areas your ds needs to concentrate on.
Yes they need to revise but for many subjects this year the homework tasks often help with this e.g. by looking at past paper questions.

[Wordsmith]

They are given all sorts of grades IME. DS is taking his GCSEs this month and so far he's had his mocks grades (dreadful, but he hardly revised), 'predicted' grades which change every term, and 'reference' grades which are what his teachers think he could get if he pulls his finger out! Because a percentage of the final grade is made up of coursework (until next year if course when it all changes again) the exam can make a difference in terms of pulling up or dragging down the grades he will get. TBH I am completely confused by the whole thing. DS just has an idea of what he needs to get for the 6th form courses he wants to follow so fingers crossed he buckles down and achieves them.

[Fleurdelise]

Thank you for your answers! In English and Maths I have been told that the mock papers for his set was an actual exam mock so not only certain topics, more so the English teacher told us he marked them very hard as he would mark YR11s mocks. That is why I am puzzled.

I do hope they cover a lot of revision at school.

DS is also uncertain what courses he would like for A levels so trying to narrow down the "important" subjects in order to get into A levels is proving difficult. He has no clue (as I didn't have a clue either at 14) of what he wants to study later on. Is this the normal pattern?

Good luck to all the DCs taking their exams this year, it must be nerve racking...

[Tigerblue]

My friend's DD was forecast to get As in all subjects! Ended up with one A, 2 Bs and the rest were As.

My own DD did her mocks in March as well. Even though she's pretty much achieved her predicted GCSE levels already (based on teacher's previous assessment and Year 6 SATs levels), but they've been told that on average they should go up a grade. With regard to the new levels for maths and English, it has been pointed out that these aren't 100% accurate but give an idea.

Fingers crossed for ours, they will achieve what they're capable of and not fall back like my friend's DD.

[Wordsmith]

Yes they do a lot of revision in school - nothing but since Easter and probably before. Also a lot of after school revision sessions and one exams start, normal lessons are suspended and the kids just go in for revision sessions on the days when thy're not in an exam.

[noisyrice]

I got C's and B's in my GCSE mocks and came out with 6 A*-A grades, 2 B's and only one C!

I didn't really bother for mocks, but trust them.

[Hexor]

They're not accurate at all to be honest, they will most likely get better in y11 as they are more prepared

[buckingfrolicks]

My DCs twins were predicted As and A Stars across the board. They sat back and relaxed. Hey, they'd got their predictions, no worries. DD did some revision DS naff all

Fast forward to results
DD does ok 2A stars 8 As 3Bs

DS ? Passes everything but only just
Tell your DC they are grades which they are predicted to get if they revise! Good lyck

[Fleurdelise]

Thank you! Apparently he will revise in year 11. I'll have to wait and see...

[CalebHadToSplit]

I'm conservative with my predictions in Y10, but by Autumn Y11 they are about 95% accurate.

With the change in grading for 2017 exams (I'm English), I'm being extra conservative. At the moment we have about 5 students predicted 8, who are our really high fliers. I would not be surprised if they achieved 9s, but there is no way that I am allowing my department to predict them at this stage.

[pointythings]

DD1 is in Yr10 and she does most of her revision at school - both in class and during break and lunch. She does some at home as well though, especially when she has tests coming up. Last parents' evening I was told she was working (currently) at A and A* in everything, though they were not allowed to say that (because of needing to show progress for the statistics).

I think bright students can really be doing this well in Yr10, especially if they are made to revise in class. DD1 is on course for a 9 in maths.