I have heard similar, though again anecdotal.
Things to factor in, might be:
- The school hit a very high watermark a couple of years ago. This probably was unsustainable.
- They had very significant success with US applications this year. Including from British applicants who a few year back might have applied to stay in the UK.
- Westminster does not seem to encourage "tactics" as much as other schools, and a majority of students seem to be aiming for subjects that, year on year, are becoming more competitive. I have heard of similar schools suggesting Oxford rather than Cambridge for STEM subjects, simply because the competition appears less fierce, and have I certainly come across parents with children elsewhere, who encourage their children to try subjects like Land Economy, Geography or MFL to increase the odds of an Oxbridge place. From observation Westminster pupils tend to choose their subject, whether it be law, medicine, engineering, economics or history of art, and take their chances. The school certainly tries to damp down the idea of Oxbridge being the be all and end all. Even in a good year only 50% gain places.
- My understanding is that the picture is pretty mixed, so some subjects have had "bumper" years, others have not.
- Oxbridge places is a measureable output so can be a proxy for judging a school's performance, so could presumably be a basis for an investment decision. However I would argue that for most students and parents individual outcomes are more important. DS was not offered a place at Cambridge and is at the LSE, where he is thriving. One really valuable aspect of his education was an expectation that he would engage and contribute, and in an institution where the ability to self-direct is critical, this is really paying off. In employment/postgraduate terms he can expect to do as well with a good LSE degree as he would have done with a similar Cambridge degree, and though he won't have seen many dreaming spires he will have had the benefit of an education in an invigorating international environment, and for him a better range of course options. My understanding is that at least some of the very able students who are happily accepting their places at Imperial feel the same.
Each year, and like with similar schools, there seem to be a few surprises both in terms of pupils who gain places and pupils who don't. This year there seem to be more of the latter. Who knows. With increasing EU and international competition, plus improved state school performance both in London and elsewhere, it is unlikely that schools like Westminster would be able to retain their near 50% Oxbridge acceptance rate. However I am not sure that a change between one year and the next tells you much about changes in the quality of education Westminster provides. And though Oxford and Cambridge will offer the fantastic educations they are not the only institutions, both in the UK and US, who do so.