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Predicted GCSE Results

(65 Posts)
SanityClause Wed 16-Oct-13 11:54:24

DD1 is in year 10, and has just been given her predicted results - A* in every subject. These are, apparently, based on the CAT scores from year 7.

She is having a major wobble, as that's obviously a pretty tall order, even for a bright child.

She is going in today to ask her maths teacher if her maths prediction can be reduced to an A.

I get that the school want her to "aim high", in each subject, but do they not look at the whole picture? Surely this is just setting her up to fail?

I am sure others have had this. How did you and your DC handle it?

(Please don't accuse me of stealth boasting. This is a very real issue for us.)

SanityClause Wed 16-Oct-13 21:28:37


Dominodonkey Wed 16-Oct-13 22:01:47

If it is based in cat scores it is not a prediction it is a target. It is most likely based on data from the Fischer family trust who have never met your child and base the targets on things like where you live.

KatyMac Wed 16-Oct-13 22:04:18

& what car you drive hmm

It's daft imo

SanityClause Wed 16-Oct-13 22:13:59

We drive an old Volvo, KatyMac! This just gets worse, doesn't it! shock

ontheallotment Wed 16-Oct-13 22:15:12

Targets only have as much importance as you attach to them, so just tell her to do her best so she will have no regrets later.

What her targets were will be irrelevent if she can look back and think that she did the best she could.

Unexpected Wed 16-Oct-13 22:47:23

How do the school know which car I drive? confused

KatyMac Wed 16-Oct-13 22:51:43

The school don't the Fischer Family Trust do - it's all about trends and large numbers of children rather than anything connected to the child

eg when DD started school (at 4, then 11) my highest qualification was A levels so her GCSEs were based on that; however I have since got a degree. If I had the degree when she started school her predicted grade would be higher - of course DD's capabilities haven't changed because I now have a higher qualification but the trend for children with mothers with degrees are that they have higher grades at GCSE

The car thing was a bit of a throw away line but it's not very accurate imo

& I don't like it

CressidaMontgomery Wed 16-Oct-13 22:58:31

My DD is in year 10 and is predicted 12 A* grades.

How do I deal with it? I tell her to revise, do her homework and concentrate. Apart from that ... Nothing

LightasaBreeze Thu 17-Oct-13 06:17:07

My DS was predicted all A* based on CAT score, He did well but did not get all A*. We wasn't expecting it and we were being realistic. Just tell her to do her best.

kitchendiner Thu 17-Oct-13 06:33:12

Just wondering approx what kind of CAT score predicts all A*? It does seem to pile the pressure on.

BeckAndCall Thu 17-Oct-13 06:37:15

I don't understand why it's pressure to be predicted good grades? Would you be happier if she were predicted 'C's, even if she were working above that level right now? What would that do for her motivation?

SanityClause Thu 17-Oct-13 06:46:47

Yes, well that would be a problem, BeckAndCall, but it's not the problem we have.

I have downplayed the importance of the target grades, but it seems that's all I can do.

BeckAndCall Thu 17-Oct-13 07:15:09

I still don't understand sanity - is there a penalty in not achieving the high predicted grades - or does it affect the set she's in which you think is too high for her - or does it put her above her friends and that's an issue?

Why is predicted high achievement not something to be proud of?

ThePuffyShirt Thu 17-Oct-13 07:28:07

Our ds was predicted all A*, he is now in y11.

I can't say we have given it a lot of thought since. He is in the top sets & doing fine, but I'd be amazed if he does achieve those grades next summer.

stillenacht Thu 17-Oct-13 07:36:28

This is FFT.

As teachers we hate them. FFTD (what our school uses) predicts impossibly high results for GCSE. Our PRP will be linked to kids results based on FFT.

My whole yearv11 class have been predicted As. Its a nonsense, in the class I have A*-D/E range in real terms.

nkf Thu 17-Oct-13 07:37:02

I can see why it's.a problem. Some children, girls in partular, get very twitchy when pressure is high.

MrsCinnamon Thu 17-Oct-13 07:47:30

Sanity, my dd got the same predictions, but she doesn't seem too stressed about it. The school should either succeed in calming her down or lower those grades.
I told her to revise and come to us immediately when she feels she's out of her depth in any subject so we can help her. Tbh she doesn't seem to be too stressed about school in general so for her it has given her the kick into action she probably needed.

MrsCinnamon Thu 17-Oct-13 07:49:51

Gah, I don't want her stressed, that sounds awful. But she has been in teenage lazy mode for a good year now, and I hope this has shaken her awake.

ohnoimnot Thu 17-Oct-13 09:05:26

Why is it such a shock? She must be in all the top sets to be predicted A*

wordfactory Thu 17-Oct-13 09:36:17

They are targets.

Something your DC could achieve with hard graft, a fair wind and no more grade boundary pissing about from Gove!

Many many DC are predicted a straight flush of A*s. Very few get it.

titchy Thu 17-Oct-13 10:06:39

We're in the same position. Unsurprisingly (given he has the same parents and postcode as his sister!) year 8 ds has the same A* targets - which as he hasn't even chosen his GCSEs shows how ridiculous it is!

The thing to remember is that these are NOT predicted grades that her teachers, knowing her ability, have set. They are based on a set of statistics, and broadly, given the size of the data set, will be largely accurate on a global scale. But NOT at an individual level.

AS others have said they are based on your qualifications, postcode, her KS2 scores etc.

Oh and I think FFT only takes the best 8 grades anyway, so a child with an A* target who got 8 x A*s and 4 x Cs would be deemed to have met their predicted grade.

SanityClause Thu 17-Oct-13 10:13:39

No, it's not a mad surprise that she is expected to do very well at GCSE.

She finds the expectation that she should achieve A* in every subject very stressful. This is what she is expected to aim for, and if she does not get it, she will have failed.

I think it's very unfair to put so much pressure on her.

FWIW, she did GCSE Drama outside of school last year. They changed the boundaries for the practical part - in previous years she would have got an A*, in her year an A. They also made the written exam much harder. They were expected to quote directly from the script, and this has never come up before. So, her result there was lower than expected, as well.

So, she got an A overall, and we were very proud of that. BUT, she knows how precarious those A*s can be, and that makes it much harder to be told that she should be achieving them across the board.

I have told her that we will be very proud of a mixture of high marks, and will not think she has failed if she doesn't get A* across the board. But I still think it's unfair on the school to put this pressure on them. And it's giving mixed messages - this is what you should aim for, but don't worry if you don't achieve it. confused

SanityClause Thu 17-Oct-13 10:19:14

Sorry, titchy I sort of x posted with you - it took ages to type that, because RL got in the way!

Anyway, that's a really useful thing to be able to tell her, and frankly, 8 A*s is a much more achievable target for her.

That's quite a relief, actually.

titchy Thu 17-Oct-13 10:27:42


Weird to think that if I hadn't bothered with that MA, my dcs would probably have A targets rather than A*s, if we had stayed in our old house as well their targets probably would have been Bs!

Same kids, same parents, same work ethic....

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