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SERIAL discussions and theories! **May contain spoilers**

(89 Posts)
KeatsieMincePie Thu 11-Dec-14 16:14:11

A place to put forth our questions and theories without worrying about spoilers for those who are not caught up grin

For anyone interested in, here are links to the Serial SubReddit and the Slate.com podcasts-about-the-Serial-podcasts and the many other podcasts from This American Life.

PTAblues Thu 11-Dec-14 16:24:42

Ok I'm marking my place. I like a good theory.

KeatsieMincePie Thu 11-Dec-14 16:29:50

I don't have a theory as such but will go ahead and put forth my current huge doubt: I really do not believe that the time of death is correct.

I am puzzled about this b/c I thought that establishing time of death was a pretty exact science -- I didn't think a qualified medical examiner could really get it wrong -- but I just do not see how she could have died in that 21-minute window. It seems impossible from what we've heard about who saw her late in the school day and just after school.

BOFster Thu 11-Dec-14 18:04:26

Here's a timeline from the cellphone evidence which discredits Jay. I feel so sad at how badly Adnan was let down by Gutierrez in court.

BOFster Thu 11-Dec-14 18:06:21

And here is Rabia explaining why she thinks Sarah has given Gutierrez far too easy a ride. It makes for shocking reading.

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 18:09:04

Thanks Keats

I guess they established the time she disappeared, or rather didn't turn up somewhere she was supposed to be (picking cousin up from school). But it was some time before the body was found, so rather than counting back hours to establish time of death from how the body was, which maybe they could do if she was found within hours, I think they went by Jay's testimony only.

MrsUnderwood Thu 11-Dec-14 18:10:15

I haven't listened to Ep11 yet so I might eat these words but there is no way Adnan should have been convicted based on the weakness of the evidence. I'm not saying he definitely didn't do it, but I really don't get why the cops didn't think Jay was the more suspicious of the two of them.

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 18:14:38

And from what I remember, he even changed his story about where Adnan supposedly opened the car trunk to show him Hae. I mean you'd remember that detail wouldn't you. Even if you'd been smoking. There was some really odd reasoning about where he thought security cameras might be? It made no sense to me

KeatsieMincePie Thu 11-Dec-14 18:24:25

I guess they established the time she disappeared, or rather didn't turn up somewhere she was supposed to be (picking cousin up from school). But it was some time before the body was found, so rather than counting back hours to establish time of death from how the body was, which maybe they could do if she was found within hours, I think they went by Jay's testimony only.

See that's what I've been wondering about, and unless I missed it, Sarah hasn't addressed this yet: did they not use a medical examiner, a coroner, to establish her time of death?? Going only by Jay's testimony to establish time of death seems totally mad to me.

KeatsieMincePie Thu 11-Dec-14 18:24:52

Not trying to just ignore everything else people are posting, just short on time right now smile

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 19:13:15

I agree Keats as far as I know, that's the only thing they are pinning time of death on, I don't think SK covered any other scientific method unless I misunderstood. And the link BOFster posted shows the cellphone records prove Jay was lying about where he was for a huge chunk of time that afternoon. The alibi given by Jenn about being at her house has to be dodgy, at the very least in the times they both say. The link also explains about the 'trunk pop' with an interesting theory. Potentially he changed his story once he knew there weren't cameras at a certain location, so it wouldn't show he was there alone perhaps, not with Adnan. And if the trunk pop never happened, and the times are all false, she probably wasn't killed within that very narrow time. It does all seem to hang from what Jay says, and the fact she never turned up for her cousin. It just seems such a mess

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 19:31:46

BOFster's other link to Rabia's blog helps explain why these assumptions went unchallenged at trial.

BOFster Thu 11-Dec-14 19:44:47

I am just gobsmacked that the police never searched Jay's home. It's like they just made up their mind and decided to retrofit all the evidence to that theory, even when it depended on the wildly inconsistent statements provided by Jay. And not only that- they actually arranged a lawyer for him! Completely unorthodox.

People wonder what motive Jay could possibly have, but we have no idea because it was never addressed as an issue.

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 21:53:56

There was a theory that came up on one of the Slate website podcasts about Serial (there are a few podcasts there) that Jay was cheating on his girlfriend Stephanie. Theory goes that Adnan told Hae, Hae was going to tell Stephanie, providing Jay with a possible motive. Not sure who put this forward, but as the series has unfolded different people from back then have apparently come out with details, so it's not a totally academic theory in that sense, not from the way they were speaking. It sounded more like an avenue that wasn't investigated.

The thing I just keep coming back to is they had so much on Jay. He told them where Hae's car was, and about the burial. What did they have on Adnan, other than that he was the most recent ex, and was a bit hazy about the events of that day. Jay's timeline was all over the place yet they appear to have made bits of it fit the phone log (after discussing the log with him) while ignoring the rest. Like his assertion that they went to one of the state parks to smoke weed that day, when according to his own timeline that just was not possible.

omletta Thu 11-Dec-14 21:54:36

Stacey....Jay would do anything for Stacey...

clangermum Thu 11-Dec-14 22:10:14

It's under 'Are there alternative theories' on the slate.com link given by Keats in the opening post

MrsUnderwood Thu 11-Dec-14 23:37:19

Jay also destroyed evidence- shovels, clothes...

PTAblues Fri 12-Dec-14 09:00:55

Last night's episode just made me really sad and even more confused. It just hadn't really occurred to me before that he was suspicious of SK. I didn't realise it was his cousin that had contacted her. That everything he said had to be so guarded because it could be used against him. Presumably his lawyer will have warned him.
I just sort of assumed, like other people who have never been in that position, that you would take any chance to get out but actually it is probably easier on your MH to accept your life if you just accept it. The only problem with that is that he has a post conviction lawyer and an appeals process which was ongoing even before the Serial podcast so I'm just not sure. Then I feel bad because there really wasn't enough evidence to convict him and the man with the smoking spade, as it where, was allowed to put him away.

Swingball Fri 12-Dec-14 09:06:05

Motive is the thing for me. The motive presented for Adnan is kind of weak as it is (and potentially imbued with racial profiling), but I need a plausible motive to believe Jay acted alone - beyond him being paid for his involvement by Adnan or somebody else.

I will have a look a the theories on the website.

daddyorchipsdaddyorchips Fri 12-Dec-14 11:18:21

Omletta, do you mean Stephanie?

I'm in the "I think he did it but no way he should have been convicted on such flimsy evidence" camp. I also think Jay was more heavily involved than he admits to. Jay was giving the cops what they wanted to hear, that's why he got an easy ride.

newrecruit Fri 12-Dec-14 11:43:39

Marking place. Just catching up on lay nights.

newrecruit Fri 12-Dec-14 11:43:55

Last night's!

TheMagicToyshop Fri 12-Dec-14 11:56:09

This blog gives a really good breakdown of jays inconsistent statements and shows just how much the police helped in tailor his narrative to fit the call logs and what they wanted to hear.

Re. Time of death, I think it couldn't be exactly determined as the body wasn't found for so long and it was cold weather. But jays first testimony placed adnan's 'come get me' call over an hour later than the 2.36 time given at trial. They decided on this time because it fit with the call logs and his (altered) testimony.

The whole thing is baffling to me. How they managed to convict... Racial profiling and his lawyers monotonous interrogation were the two big factors it seems. The evidence just was not there.

clangermum Fri 12-Dec-14 17:30:35

I think the lawyer's monotonous interrogation, confusion and going off at tangents at times, and the fact Jay appeared to keep his cool when she did this, worked for Jay and against Adnan.

clangermum Fri 12-Dec-14 17:36:32

Because of the whole confusion about Best Buy having a pay phone or not, at one point SK says something along the lines of totally not believing the 2.36 'come get me' call, and it was definitely a 'retro fit' part of Jay's story to cell phone logs. Amazing that it stuck.

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