So, property gurus, what is going on with the housing market these days?(16 Posts)
I read on the cover of the Saturday Express that house prices are 'rocketing' but obviously am taking that with a large pinch of salt. What is the situation where you are or what have you read recently?
Well I would say we are in strange times as no-one really knows what is happening with the economy and housing market at the moment. Any talk of another boom is extremely premature IMHO. Definitely a problem with supply of family houses but hopefully lots of people will read headlines like this and put their houses on the market - hence problem solved!!
We've held off buying another house for 5 years now - been in rented (thank goodness). Will definitely be holding off for the foreseeable future as still very unstable out there as far as I can see!!
We have just sold our house in a week. Now under offer and we are not far off the 2007 peak valuation price. Prices have increased since Feb 09 when we started looking. We live in Ashford Surrey and the number of houses/flats coming onto the market is increasing each month. Our buyer also sold in week so now is the difficult situation of finding a bigger house to stay in for quite some time. I think it is a good time to buy if you can find the right house and I would imagine most people selling are not expecting the asking price and would accept an offer. I think the impulsiveness has gone slightly and been replaced with more cautious buyers and sellers.
Definately picked up here (Bucks)but still very much lower than the peak. However family homes in decent school catchments are being fought over. Homes in not such good areas are languishing. Seems that the buyers are cherry-picking the best and not taking a gamble on areas 'being on the up' as EAs used to say!
Here is one view.
And here is the link I always post about what happens in house price crashes. Especially the 'Return to normal' section.
I am renting, planning to buy at some point in the next few years so am enjoying the current crop of more bearish articles (the Express excluded!) in the media. I do think they are right, though. It seems obvious when you think about it. Where is the money going to come from to sustain this? The levels of transaction are so low at the moment that it's very misleading to suggest the housing market is actually recovering. Like the Monty Python parrot nailed to its perch - it maybe technically be upright but it's not very healthy .
Oops, trying the Telegraph link again:
Agree with Jimmy (love the MP analogy ).
Think about the news in the past 24 hours; potentially we're going to have to work until we're 66 just to draw a basic pension, and high earners in the public sector are starting to feel the cool winds blowing. The daft prices we've seen this summer are not sustainable - they merely reflect the lack of supply/ fool's rally.
IMO it is early to talk about recovery. Well, maybe it has recovered from the very bottom. There is never a one-sided trend. Prices are fluctuating. I expect them to go up and down. I think that price will go down maybe 5-10% and then recovery up to todays level maybe in 2 years or so. But hey, I just bought a house myself I do not have to sell in a short time if I dont want to, I like idea of my own home and my mortgage payment for 2 bed house is nearly the same as my previous rent of 1 bed flat. No matter what prices do or will do, I just needed my own home and as long as I could afford it, I bought it. IMO if you are not looking to sell within 5 years, you can definitely buy. If you are looking to sell within 2 years, it might be risky.
Exactly what JimmyMcN said
We're in rented as of a few weeks ago, having sold, and very very little coming on in our area - but the summer rush of higher prices has slowed down. People are very wary, waiting to see what happens next, I think.
We're hoping to buy in the next year or so.
The classic Bull trap, hold on it's going to be at least 2011 before we will buy again.
I'm inclined to side with the more pessimistic side of the argument, although I am also convinced that long term the number of housing transactions will stay at the lower level - I think the whole picture has been reset. Now, people move because they have to not just to speculate and cash in.
I would however agree with the comment that good family houses in good areas will continue to fly. We were looking for a 4 bed near some nice schools in June/July and had a hell of a time. Overpriced crap languished on the market week in week out but the good ones went fast. In the end we found what we were looking for but I think just got lucky because they overpriced initially, we saw the subsequent reduction and pounced FAST - offer made and accepted within 24 hours. Our own 2+1 bed terrace sold in a week but only because we priced it realistically - we took a slight hit on what we paid in 2005 but considered ourselves lucky it was a small hit. We more than made up for it with what we negotiated on our dream home!
I think given the economic pain ahead actvity levels will remain depressed and hence prices will stay on an evenish keel. Not convinced that there is another huge slump coming simply due to the shortage of stock, certainly in the family space.
MillyMollyMoo, I think it is not a classic Bull trap anymore, the economy has expanded globally since the Bull trap theory was created, and we need to look at the broader picture - not only what happens in the UK, but also what happens in the world. If the world's economy will recover it would drag the UK up as well. The U.S. is already recovering...
I don't think it's as simple as recovery for the UK - we are in debt up to our neck as a nation. That will take many, many years to pay back - via working longer, hikes in income tax, less public spending therefore more funding required to come from our pockets etc.
Unemployment is lagging 18 months behind the economy therefore it will be at least 18 months before people have the money/security/confidence to borrow again and then how long will it take to save the required equity/deposit especially if you bought in 2007 as we did.
2011 is the absolute earliest we will be able to save £50,000 and then it'll be by living like church mice, so if we're saving not spending I'd imagine others are too and what effect will that have on the recovery ?
We exchanged to buy a house 3 weeks ago and it was nail biting stuff. We are is a highly desirable catchment which completely drives the local market. We pounced on day One of advertising with an offer £1k OVER asking! In all the weeks between offer and exchange, I winced at every 'Saturday Express' style item announcing house prices were rising and cheered every Guardian article that said it's a fool's market, PRAYING our vendor wasn't taking any notice of the former and thus collapsing our deal!
4 br family homes have been selling like hot cakes (we kept seeing the same people viewing the few suitable places that came up!)- but even here, the heat has gone out of the market as it's far too late to buy to get DC into the school for 2010 intake.
IMO, the only thing that's keeping our economy afloat is the millions upon millions of pounds the Treasury has pumped into it. Yes, it WILL genuinely recover eventually but there's nothing in place, really, to keep house prices up: we have rising unemployment, a crackdown on public spending (a huge employer) with a MASSIVE debt to service on top of the silly levels of personal debt we appear to hold. Yes, there have been pockets of stability, even growth but I believe the overall trend will be downwards towards far more sensible, sustainable levels. At least, that's what I'm hoping, and I speak as one who has just thrown a 1/3 of a million quid at a house which I suspect will be worth £290 in a couple of years' time, but that's OK. It's a home, we have no mortgage. And it permits the thought that our OWN DCs may one day be able to afford their own home as well thus won't be living with us to 35!
there is a slight bounce atm fuelled by QE low interest rates and the press reporting green shoots of recovery.meanwhile the uk economy contnues to be an almighty debt bubble and unemployment is rising.A secong fall in house prices is sure to come post election when interest rates rise and things like council tax gas and electric all rocket.So if you want to cash in any equity or move I would do it now because 2011 will be rocky!
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