How’s the London market doing?

[Bouncycastle12]

I’m looking to sell my flat as will be moving around for work for a bit, and not sure where I will end up. But not sure what the market is doing at the moment. Estate agents are being buoyant (but aren’t they always?). But would rather rent it than sell it the market’s down in the short term. I’m in south London. How are people finding it?

[Houseplantmad]

In our area, sw London, there seems to be a shortage of stock and what is going on is selling quickly and at record prices. Our neighbour's house sold before they'd put the board up recently.
Prices in our area have never dropped, just plateaued at times over the years. Two years ago a modernised terraced family home could achieve £1.1m. Now it's more like £1.3m.

[Houseplantmad]

I would say, I have been told that flats are harder to shift, particularly if no garden. After lockdown people want some outdoor space.

[Thecazelets]

Nothing seems to be shifting round here (also SW London) and lots of reductions.

[Bouncycastle12]

Thanks, that's helpful. Yes, it mainly seems to be driven by a shortage of stock (I guess that is why the estate agent is so keen!). I just wondered if the London market was a bit slow at the moment, partly August and partly the sodding virus!

[Bouncycastle12]

@Thecazelets

Nothing seems to be shifting round here (also SW London) and lots of reductions.

Cross post - and now I'm confused! Thanks though!

[JoJoSM2]

I’m out in Sutton and half decent houses go to best and final within days. For sth to hang around it really needs to be compromised and overpriced.

[NewHouseNewMe]

Three weeks ago it was booming around here (N London) for all properties with outside space, especially houses. But now we are seeing houses that were ambitiously priced get reduced, properties are taking longer to sell and it seems to have quietened down.

[Thecazelets]

Probably lots of local micro-markets. Someone posted this link a while ago - it's quite interesting comparing areas even within London.

www.theadvisory.co.uk/propcast/

[ComtesseDeSpair]

I just this morning accepted an above asking price offer on my flat from a BTL landlord buying with cash - there were three competing bidders in the end, all professional landlords looking for rental properties and, it seems, very eager to snap up what they can. It had been on the market for three weeks with loads of viewings. From that I’d say it seems relatively buoyant. Certainly things at the lower end of the market (under £500k) aren’t hanging around long.

[JoJoSM2]

@Thecazelets It does say that it’s a hot market around me so looks like it’s working

[Bouncycastle12]

Thanks for that prop cast link... I just don’t know what to do! It’s so confusing. It seems to be different everywhere...

[Bouncycastle12]

I wonder if everywhere will pick up in September too. I guess August isn’t a fantastic time to sell a flat at the best of times!

[Thecazelets]

[quote JoJoSM2]@Thecazelets It does say that it’s a hot market around me so looks like it’s working [/quote]
Icy cold and falling for my postcode, alas....!

[Requinblanc]

My East London 1 bedroom flat found a buyer after 5 viewings.

[JoJoSM2]

OP, do you feel like you’ve got much to lose? You can always list your flat and see how it goes?

@Thecazelets Are you in London too?

[Bouncycastle12]

I mean, that’s true @JoJoSM2 - I just think if it’s not going to find a buyer I’d rather crack on with renting it.

[Thecazelets]

JoJo - yes, a popular bit of SW London for families. There was a bit of a flurry a few weeks ago when lockdown first lifted but it seems to have slowed right down again. Seems to be an over-supply if anything.

[Multiplying2020]

We're selling and buying in SW London at the mo - it seems a funny market, very patchy - some areas doing much better than others, and there are loads of properties coming to the market, which wasn't happening before, and this was keeping the prices artificially high so interesting to see what's going to happen.

We agreed both prices before the stamp duty announcement and we're just trying to keep going in our very short chain.

It doesn't bother us too much as we're in secure jobs (hopefully!) and planning to stay in one place for at least the next 4-5 years, but if we were starting to look now we'd probably hold off for a bit as there's a long recession/depression coming.

I'm also noticing that a lot of people who were WFH are now moving out of London altogether so they can WFH somewhere green! Not a massive movement, but I think enough to make a difference to London prices in the short term at least, despite the stamp duty holiday.

[Bouncycastle12]

Yeah, I thought that. But then I don’t actually think that many people will actually move if they’re selling low in London to buy high outside (although two of my friends who left London for the countryside are leaping at the chance to try and come back. Haha. I’ve never known houses go on the market so fast.)

[JoJoSM2]

But then I don’t actually think that many people will actually move if they’re selling low in London to buy high outside.

It might not matter too much as prices outside London are quite a lot lower and there’s always the risk that if you wait to move, then prices could work in your favour but they could work against you too.

[GreyGardens88]

I've been keeping an eye on Rightmove over the last months, flats in London with no outdoor space and languishing on there for months I'm afraid, no one wants them.

[ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia]

I believe the double whammy of Covid medical and economic lifestyle impacted changes AND Brexshit economic challenges will have a sizeable impact on London's residential property markets.

There will inevitably be numerous other global geopolitical factors and large corporates business failings which all influence supply and demand and indeed forward funding for new housing projects and equity debt financing etc.

I believe there may be some (obvious!) volatility in the core prime London residential market. This will naturally have a knock on top down negative pricing impact on Greater London, Home Counties and possibly to a lesser extent the provincial market sub segments. Overall despite the geopolitical and economic instability there is actually I believe still physical demand in an perpetually under supples market though first time buyers have king been priced out leaving issues at the important lower starting rung of the residential property ladder which of course means issues in market movements further up the property ladder. I believe recent property tax changes will have a limited positive market impact though.

It is a tough and uncomfortable market to deal in. The only positives are as usual in favour of international high net worth cash investors using usual tax efficient off shore tax wrapper corporate entities and vulture capitalists doing heavily discounted deals for those sellers wanting to cash out and exit their exposure in the current possibly downward trend short to medium term market.

I have access through long standing international City corporate contacts but obviously this is an anonymous public forum and so one must play according to set parameters! For those interested here are some intriguing basic research material from two of usual suspects major players published in the public domain for general consumption which may be of interest to some here (if you have not read these already as I have not in detail yet):

http://cbre.vo.llnwd.net/grgservices/secure/COVID199ResidentialMarkettUpdateAugustt_Final.pdf?e=1597269619&h=dfafad21103f30bfb8400113b41fe502

https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/302319-0

https://www.coutts.com/insight-articles/news/2019/real-estate/coutts-london-prime-property-index-Q3-2019.html

[JoJoSM2]

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

I couldn’t open the first document but read the other two. I just do wonder how much impact there might be outside prime London. Those areas have been struggling for a while.

[JoJoSM2]

Those areas= prime

[appletreeinthesun]

In my bit of zone 3 south London I have noticed a lot of flats being reduced at the moment. Quite a lot coming in the market though.