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What month will the property crash be obvious in?

(529 Posts)
roneik Wed 10-Dec-14 21:24:44

Not doom but a question, and I would like to hear some opinions

I reckon by july

NoArmaniNoPunani Wed 10-Dec-14 21:25:59

What property crash?

BumWad Wed 10-Dec-14 21:28:17

As above, what property crash?

OddBoots Wed 10-Dec-14 21:30:56

I wish there would be a drop or at least a sustained levelling in prices but I'm not sure there will be one of those, never mind a crash.

financialwizard Wed 10-Dec-14 21:32:50

Not a snowball's chance of a property price crash.

roneik Wed 10-Dec-14 21:36:38

The crash that has started ,and been obvious to anyone keeping up with the plot
You know like in we are only a trillion or two in debt , people earning less than they were ten years ago
People seeing one bed flats in tower blocks for quarter of a million ex council.

Unemployment figures being fiddled by 56 thousand sanctions last month.

roneik Wed 10-Dec-14 21:45:05

Bank of england thinks it's all go for a

No I cant mention the word , I must not think negative, I am entitled , I am entitled

www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/01/bank-of-england-warns-housing-market-property-price-boom-crash

roneik Wed 10-Dec-14 22:03:44

The bubble is the economy,this bubble is political. The negative social costs of the bubble will force those in power to deflate it as best they can. Which is coincidentally what they are doing now. But will it work?
The signs are there it is working. Things could get very interesting indeed. Not until after the election will the truth out

NoArmaniNoPunani Wed 10-Dec-14 23:07:32

The crash that has started ,and been obvious to anyone keeping up with the plot

Must be a regional thing. I take a very keen interest in property in my area and there's no sign of a crash here

lessonsintightropes Wed 10-Dec-14 23:16:58

I think we've seen a bubble in London which is now flattening out (can't comment on other areas, as I'm not familiar with the markets). We bought in July this year at the top of it. But we intend to be in this house for at least 8 years - and property in London doesn't go permanently down and won't unless moves are made to exclude foreign capital distorting the market. No government would do that - ergo any 'crash' in London is either price stagnation or small falls followed by slow growth. The rest of the country outside the south east isn't in that position though in terms of external impact and lack of supply (apart from perhaps Aberdeen, until the oil dries up). It looks as if we are slowly moving to a permanent correction with less than 65% of people owning the houses they live in - i.e. much more in line with the rest of Europe. The main problem though is that tenant's rights are much weaker here.

Not sure there's enough in your original post to comment on in detail.

Seabright Wed 10-Dec-14 23:23:20

I think the market is slowing. I work in the property industry & whilst this is the slow time of year, it feels more so than usual.

Crash? No, not in London, SE, Silicon Fen & Thames Valley. But other areas? Maybe.

It's also partly that we're in the pre-election period; that always causes additional uncertainty.

DarylDixonsDarlin Wed 10-Dec-14 23:24:24

You know that article you've linked above is from May this year, yes?

peteneras Thu 11-Dec-14 10:07:45

And that was the month I exchanged, completed and moved (London) and then waited week after week for the market to crash.

The last time I looked, according to Zoopla at least, the value has gone up 10.5% in just over 6 months! Sorry, what crash?

specialsubject Thu 11-Dec-14 10:31:27

this is roneik's pet ramble. I had tenants waiting for the property crash. They were still waiting in 2008 and they will still be waiting now.

prices have gone down in some areas since 2006 of course.

these headlines are as accurate as the ones prophesying a freezing winter. Or indeed any other kind of long range weather.

roneik Thu 11-Dec-14 12:20:30

RICS and Land reg would put you in the "you are the weakest link" category
#Of course a landlord is going to drum up the market , I read today you lot are becoming a bigger threat to the economy than when the bankers were at it

Heres a prediction for you , next year there will be taxation of rents in the buy to let sector if newliarbor get in

IssyStark Thu 11-Dec-14 13:14:06

I had hoped that from 2007 there would be zero growth and the market to slowly readjust without a huge crash, but no such luck for us (we're in the SE).

Looking at the local property market, houses are being reduced regularly and many are taking a long time to move (especially probate sales as heirs get greedy). Prices have defnintely deflated somewhat since earlier in the year, however I would be happier if they were more like 2006 levels. And of course the change in stamp duty will effect the prices around the £250-300K mark in the short term, so the fall in the past few months may stall again.

We're lucky. We bought in 2005 and have been able to overpay our mortgage so we have less than 5 years of our original 25 year term left. And when we sell, which we would like to in the next year or so, I would be happy to get what we originally paid, regardless of the £30k or work we did on it. After all, it is somewhere we will have lived for a decade, and if we hadn't had a mortgage we would have been paying rent and there's no way we would have been able to finda house to rent for £250 a month. (And on a tangent, I really hope that rent laws are changed in the next parliament to give tenants better rights).

thebellsofsaintclements Thu 11-Dec-14 13:42:06

I agree Issy. I sold a flat earlier on this year (got the offer in the summer, supposedly at the top of the market, but still had to drop the asking price by 10%) and the estate agent (Foxtons, no less!) actually told me that the market was going down and if I'd waited any longer I wouldn't have been able to sell it even at that price. Looking at all the price reductions since then, I think he's right and I was lucky!

I would be more than happy for prices to go down to 2006 levels, as the current prices are unsustainable, and are having the effect of forcing families out of their communities in order to be able to afford a house that suits their family.

In the last couple of years I've known loads of families to move out from our Zone 2 area to further out into the suburbs or out of London altogether. The high prices are destroying communities and the only people profiting are the bankers and property speculators.

christmaspies Thu 11-Dec-14 13:50:16

I can't see it happening in London. Property here will always be unaffordable for most

Bowlersarm Thu 11-Dec-14 13:54:18

Oh Ron, the housepricecrasher expert.

fakenamefornow Thu 11-Dec-14 13:54:33

Were I live (SW) prices have been pretty stagnant since the 2008 peek. I think it's only London and the SE that have seen big rises.

bryonyelf Thu 11-Dec-14 16:22:14

No crash here.

Landlords already pay tax on their rents.

thebellsofsaintclements Thu 11-Dec-14 19:22:14

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-house-buyers-slash-offers-after-chancellors-stamp-duty-shakeup-9917683.html

"market conditions now are not dissimilar to 2009"

"it's a buyers' market"

This afternoon's Evening Standard front page - just a taste of things to come IMHO

HaveToWearHeels Fri 12-Dec-14 09:46:04

Heres a prediction for you , next year there will be taxation of rents in the buy to let sector if newliarbor get in

UMMM hate to burst your bubble but rent is already taxed, so not a great prediction really !

Here's my prediction Christmas will be on the 25th December this year !

DoctorTwo Fri 12-Dec-14 10:25:18

I think London will be largely insulated from a crash due to buyers from the far east swapping their government issued paper for tnagible assets, namely property. They're already doing this in parts of the US.

If Mark Carnage decides to raise interest rates then yes, there will be a crash. But why would he do that when all he has to do is issue more fake money in the form of QE? It's free money for the banks which they buy government bonds with. After all, you can't taper a Ponzi scheme...

The towel folder's entire economic plan is predicated on us, the great British public, taking on an extra £360Bn debt. That's personal debt, not public debt, and that's what will crash the economy.

Note that Carnage has stated there will be no more bail outs for the banks, but they will be protected from going bust. Get ready for bail ins, or theft from all of our bank accounts. It's how the Cypriot banks were 'rescued'.

minipie Fri 12-Dec-14 10:26:49

There's definitely been a price reduction here (SW london) recently - was happening pre stamp duty change but that's made it accelerate. Prices have only come down to 2013 levels though from their frankly insane levels earlier this year. Nothing like 2009 let alone 2005/6. I wouldn't call it a crash and don't see a crash coming.

Back to HPC with you roneik.

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