2015 Reception Starters - do we know how big a birth year it is?

[TheOnlyOliviaMumsnet]

I guess it is a local thing? But know that there have been "boom" years -
DS2's nursery class isn't too bad at all - but the current reception year is HUUUUUUGE for e.g.
Just wondering.
TIA

(All personally not in my work clothes like.)

[BingoBonkers]

Wasn't the latter half of 2010 a baby boom? Apparently this was due to severe snow and weather.

[wingcommandergallic]

Sure the ONS will have statistics because they compile the popular baby names from the info.
Trouble is, you need to know for your area.
I'd still apply to the schools you like most as there's no knowing how many other parents will apply.

[wingcommandergallic]

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/search/index.html?newquery=*&nscl=Live+Births+and+Stillbirths&nscl-orig=Live+Births+and+Stillbirths&content-type=publicationContentTypes&sortDirection=DESCENDING&sortBy=pubdate

Anything here to help?
Suspect my morning is now lost to statistics! Reckon I have an hour of peace before DD wakes up.

[Sirzy]

I don't think the nursery class size necessarily says much about intake. DS was at the school nursery last year which had spaces all year but they had more applications than any year recently for reception and a lot of people didn't get in.

I think it's hard to predict where people will apply for - although obviously some schools will always be more popular than others - so I would stick with applying for the school you want as first choice but if your not close to that school (the school should have some distance statistics for 'catchment' in recent years) then have a good look at other local schools and pick one you would be happy with as a second choice. I know a few people who only put one school last year assuming they would get a place but who ended up with a place in a school they didn't want at all

[catslife]

I am thinking 2011 Census data, but guess that would be used by the ONS.
The trouble is OP that in many areas the birth data hasn't been enough as this doesn't give information about families with pre-school children moving into a new area. This has meant that in some cases the number of school places needed has been greater than expected and has led to a shortage of places.

[TheOnlyOliviaMumsnet]

BingoBonkers - I hadn't thought about that - literally half of my (small) NCT group's babies were the result of teachers on a snow day

catslife - that is also true about preschool children moving areas
Wingcommander - so MANY stats - didn't know where to start.

We are q close to school and already have DC1 in the school, so would hope to be high up the list.

Just interested.

[Bunnyjo]

DS was born May 2011, so will be starting in 2015.

DD already attends our catchment school, so thankfully DS will b a catchment sibling. However, the school is tiny - PAN is 8 - and for his year there will be 7 catchment siblings!

We only need one LAC or SEN statement listing the school and there will be no places for first born catchment children without the school going over the PAN.

[bearwithspecs]

Where we are the birth rate has gone up every year for years. Nursery classes are no indication as so many people are SAHM or use CM, GP or private nurseries pre reception

[LuckyLopez]

Oh I hope not. We've already had nightmares with school applications with ds1 and 2 born in 2003 & 2006.

[LuckyLopez]

Both baby boom years but fine in years either side of them.

[BingoBonkers]

I remember going to buy nappies and every time I went to buy nappies in that size (so assuming the other babies were of a similar age) they were always out of stock. This I took to be evidence of a baby boom. Highly scientific you will agree. My DC1 is a late 2010 baby due to start school Sept 2015.

[Littlefish]

My area is a large year in 2015. The next year is lower, followed by a high year again.

[JuniperTisane]

Now you say it, ds1's nursery is full this year. We live on the edge of catchment for the closest 3 schools. I hope this doesn't mean we lose put on all of them.

[Gileswithachainsaw]

Oh don't tell me this. Stressed enough first time round. My chances of a decent school are slim enough as it is.

I Daren't look

[CantBeBotheredThinking]

I know in our area that 2015 intake is a boom year but the pre school nursery still has room but they have another 2 intakes to do before the sept 2015 intake go up to school. My dd is slightly later and will go Sept 2016 but she was the youngest of all the children at baby groups and all her friends will go into reception in 2015.