Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

[wheresmymojo]

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for the CV or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario. As do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Hand sanitiser needs to be 60% or more alcohol content

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

• Frequent and thorough hand washing, not touching your face and social distancing (no handshakes, hugs, etc) are some of the most effective ways to stay virus free

[BlackeyedSusan]

Thank you. Can't believe we are on thread 4.

[ofwarren]

Just checking in. Number 4 already!

[ofwarren]

www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/health/leeds-mp-alex-sobel-be-assessed-coronavirus-after-attending-conference-infected-patient-1741206

Leeds MP Alex Sobel to be assessed for coronavirus after attending conference with infected patient

Leeds MP Alex Sobel has cancelled all his upcoming engagements after attending a conference a coronavirus patient.

[wheresmymojo]

Japan have just announced another 4 confirmed cases.

This article shows that they're getting to the point now where they're unable to understand how some of the cases popping up now got infected.

IMO Japan are past containment now...that's not to say contact tracing and isolation isn't worth it as it still slows the spread but it seems to me the virus is already out there


www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-after-first-death-japan-sees-first-possible-case-of-doctor-to-patient

[BottomleyPottsSpots2]

I managed to get some FFP3 masks from Wickes yesterday - had to click and collect rather than ordering online as sold out. Ordered goggles which bizzarely were sold out in store but available for delivery ... however now a bit more equipped.

I'm hoping that public health england get in gear and some protective equipment reaches my DH's surgery today.

[wheresmymojo]

Don't know if this has been posted already - potential impact on dentists in the UK


www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-covid-19-china-uk-british-dentists-a4361806.html

[MissusMaker]

Checking in. Less than an hour to go till I can pick my kids up from school for the holidays and it will be a relief to get them out of that germ-soup. I'm hoping in a weeks time things will look clearer one way of the other.

[FourTeaFallOut]

So the phe 2pm update shows we're still holding at 9 confirmed cases. That has to be good, right?

[LittleSwede]

Thanks for the new thread wheresmymojo.

[brainfogg]

Thank you for the thread, I followed all the others with interest. Even though I have bad anxiety and have struggled a lot with this recently, I find these threads so helpful in a practical sense.

As others have said it helps to feel slightly more in control.

I don’t have much money so it’s hard for me to prep too far in advance, however here’s what I’ve got so far in case it helps others:

4 x bottles of Virashield foam sanitisers
3 x bottles of antibacterial gels
I’m buying whatever toilet rolls and tissues happy to be on offer to stock up
Paracetamol
Dettol cleaning wipes
2 big bottles of liquid hand soap
Toothpaste
Shower gel
Lip balm and vaseline
Multivitamins
Frozen jacket potatoes
Frozen ready meals
Tins of baked beans
I bought a loaf of bread yesterday, put 4 slices in a bag and froze them and will do the same every couple of days
Nuts
24 small bottles of water
Emergency chocolate!

That’s all for now, just realised we won’t have much to eat if we’re stuck in so will need to maybe buy one extra food item every day to spread the cost. All of the above are things I’ve been gradually getting over the past 3 weeks.

[JaneDarcy]

I haven't even had a chance to read Thread 3 and we're on thread 4!
Wrt stocking up on inhalers etc - they need a prescription, don't they? If someone gets really sick the only OTC options are lemsip and paracetamol. Or am I missing something?

[EagleVisionSquirrelWork]

Hello. Thanks mojo. I still haven't been paid so no prepping going on here atm. Got a list tho!

[HasaDigaEebowai]

I still have my brexit stash and so we are ok for everything now that I've got a few more disposable masks. I've asked DH to grab a couple more boxes of cold and flu tablets when he passes lidl later and we've both reordered our repeat prescriptions (his are necessary every day without fail for medical reasons, mine is HRT and necessary to stop me from killing everyone else in the house..)

Not that Im expecting us to go into lockdown anytime soon. We seem to be at the "nothing to see folks - move along" stage and I suspect we'll be at this stage for a good while.

[IrisMarch]

NC as you'll understand.

I'd be grateful for your thoughts on managing my rather sudden cold. I am coughing and sneezing a lot. I don't feel particularly ill but very tired.

I don't want to alarm other people by going around coughing like a loon. As far as I know I haven't had any contact qualifying for worry that it's COVID19.
Like others on the previous thread I have a child with ASC, vulnerable people in my close family and I'm not in the 'no need to worry 35 and fit as a flea camp' myself.

Feel free to ignore as not exactly prepping but prepsense appreciated.

[floatygoat]

Does anyone have any good guesses on if the virus being milder for children includes babies under 1?

Would you consider a baby under 1 as particularly vulnerable to this as a caution?

I am starting to believe that it will be impossible to avoid this virus and that maybe it would be better to catch it sooner rather than later in light of the fact that hospitals will be overwhelmed with patients needing clinical care.

It seems that without decent clinical care the CFR jumps quite high.

[ofwarren]

HasaDig the Metro are now reporting the "8 planes on runway" story.

[nldnmum]

As bad as it sounds, I kind of hope one of the MPs or VIPs from the conference is tested positive, so then perhaps the government will take it more seriously, like banning flights from affected regions and more strict self-quarantine policies

[wheresmymojo]

Dr John Campbell's latest video is a good one to share with family and friends about the basic steps to take...

[SleepWarrior]

Wow, thread four already!

[MissusMaker]

@floatygoat it is believed to be milder for babies and children. Unfortunately you can catch it more than once so 'catch it early while the NHS is coping' isn't a useful plan unfortunately.

[HasaDigaEebowai]

Blimey. No official reports of any numbers or cases in North Korea however the news is reported that a top official has been shot and killed for leaving quarantine.

I'd guess they have a significant issue with cases then!

[wheresmymojo]

The 8 planes thing is weird....all of the articles say '8 planes' in their headlines but only actually reference one - the San Fran flight.

I'm going to guess it was just the one flight, someone got confused and thought there were more and then each paper copied the other ones IYSWIM.

[ofwarren]

Probably wheresmymojo it's like a cut and paste of the mail article

[EagleVisionSquirrelWork]

I'm not an expert, floaty, but generally babies are more vulnerable when they have respiratory conditions simply because small people's airways are smaller and more irritable than adults'.

There is currently a lack of clarity about why some people have mild sniffles or are totally asymptomatic, and others are so unwell they end up in ICU. Elderliness and underlying conditions are obviously a factor, but there may be other things. Anecdotally, men get it more acutely than women (well...). Genes play a role in most things and I doubt this is any exception. So there's probably no way to predict how severe your baby's symptoms would be.

BUT, what we do know is that the reported breathing difficulties are inflammation-mediated.

So, while babies/children reportedly get it more mildly, if your little one were to be in the 'getting it badly' category for any reason at all, I would think they might struggle more than an adult just because of being so small.

I hope that makes sense and is helpful. I don't want to cause you any extra worry.