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Risk of Down's Syndrome....how do you convert risk into a percentage?

(81 Posts)
ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:13:37

I have seen somewhere on here that some of you clever boffins can convert the 1/? risk into a percentage risk.....how do you do it?

Tinker Tue 15-Mar-05 16:14:47

What risk have you/someone else been given?

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:15:08

it depends - if it's 1/100 then it's 1%. but that "risk" itself will vary according to your age ie older women "naturally" have more DS pregnancies than younger ones, but it doesn't mean it's impossible if you're say 20.

mrsflowerpot Tue 15-Mar-05 16:15:18

1 divided by the number, then multiply by 100 for the percentage, eg 1 in 250 is 1/250 = 0.004, x 100 = 0.4%

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:17:00

Well I am considering a nuchal scan....but weighing up whether to bother or not......based on my age alone I have a 1/895 chance.

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:18:03

sounds good to me. how old are you?

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:18:44

30

Tinker Tue 15-Mar-05 16:19:11

Your age alone risk is very low but scan will give you a more precise (but not the exact) risk. Will give you more idea. But with your age alone risk I wouldn't bother. Depends what you woudl do with the results.

mrsflowerpot Tue 15-Mar-05 16:19:50

I would say it depends how much you want to know your personal risk, and what you would do with the information if you get a high-risk result. If your scan or tests did come back higher risk (usually 1 in 250 or above), you'll have to decide on invasive testing which can be risky for the pregnancy. So it's best imho to think through what you would do in that event, and base your decision on that.

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:20:18

More children with Down's syndrome are born to younger women, but that's beacuse there are more younger women having babies. All the mums I know whose children have DS are all my age and younger.

I know that doesn't answer you question sorry.

Oh and i was very low risk when i had my bloods done, was 30 years old and still had a little girl with Down's syndrome.

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:21:05

buttonmoon, what would you do if you had a high risk of a DS baby?

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:21:28

Just confused as what to do really. Would put my mind at rest but don't think I could end the pregnancy anyhow........God it's so hard.....

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:23:33

Hi Button

If you want to talk about your fears or anything with me I'd be more than happy to chat to you, on the boars or you can email me.

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:25:19

if you don't think you would opt for a termination then i would seriously think about not having any more tests. think of yourself in a classroom of 30 people - that's 1/30. think of 895 that's a whole lot more. but as Thomcat says there is still a a risk. i had a risk of a far more serious chromosomal problem with my 2nd pregnancy and opted for an amnio, but i was v clear about what i would do if the result was positive (ie a termination). an obs/gynae i spoke to during my 1st pg (not treating me, just giving advice) suggested if your result was "better" than 1/250 then you should go home & forget about it (but that's easy for him to say..). plus the tests which can detect various syndromes/problems cannot pick up on other things which worry parents eg deafness, autism, etc etc etc so you can never be truly "sure". sorry that sounded a bit grim. but just trying to put it into perspective.

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:25:43

you have to sit and think about what it is that scares you about having a child with Down's syndrome?
What is it that you think would be so bad that yu would terminate your pregnancy.
If you can't think of anything then there's your answer.

I'm here, talk to me, about anything, let me help if I acan okay?
No pressure, nothing like that, but any questions, anything I can please let me.

Love TC x

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:26:50

I had bloods done at 16 weeks with DD and they came back 1/1200 ( I was 27) but like you say there is still a risk there....someone has to be that one.

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:29:45

Shall we wheel out the old line........about the only guarantee is that there is no guarantee.

Just becasue DS is the test that is out there for everyone to have and you get the option to opt out from having a child with DS..... what I'm saying is but don't want to spell it out really, is that DS is really not the worst thing that can happen to your child / you, far from it.

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:30:45

Yeah I was that someone, and bloody glad about it too.
Someone out there has to have children with Down's syndrome, and i'm glad it was me.

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:33:52

i hope I didn't sound like I was being cross with you then btw, far from it, just passionate about my beautiful daughter and upset at how hospitals put the fear of God into expectant mothers.

cori Tue 15-Mar-05 16:35:23

My test for last pg was 1 in 150. I was told that 60% of women who have this result go on to have DS babies. ( I dont understand how this works though) I went on to have a non DS baby.


I dont have a lot faith in these tests. I had the same test repeated in Australia and my results were 1 in 2000. Needless to say I did not have any further investigations.

I am seriously considering whether I should have the triple test for this pregnancy.

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:35:59

btw, my bloods indicated a 1/30 risk of edwards syndrome (which is life-limiting), higher than it should have been for my age (38). i had a low risk of spina bifida and ds.

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:37:13

I know that and I know that the fact there is a test is the problem....am seriously considering not bothering with nuchal now....my cousin had DS with severe learning/physical difficulties due to extremely prem birth, she couldn't control that.... I agree with you Thomcat.....

ThomCat Tue 15-Mar-05 16:44:13

At the end ogf the day babe it's a big decision.
All I can say I have never regretted stepping off the conveyor belt and not having tests.
Don't be bullied by anyone to do anything. This is your decision. All i know is that if these nucal tests picked up everything that could possibly go wrong, at birth or 20 years down the line, the worlds population would rapidly decrease.

Good luck and I hope your pregancy is a happy and healthy one with a baby to match. That's all we can really ask for, and it's what I got.

Love TC x

bundle Tue 15-Mar-05 16:47:00

tc, i know you're offering friendly advice but it's not a conveyor belt, you have to "do" something to make the tests happen, they do not happen automatically nor are they (in my experience) forced upon you. it is - as you've said - a hard decision to make. it isn't automatic and i wouldn't want anyone reading this to think they had to opt for the tests or had to opt out because of your/my opinions
()

ButtonMoon Tue 15-Mar-05 16:47:39

Going to have a long chat with DH tonight and i'll update tomorrow....thanks to you all (esp ThomCat) for all your help and advice...am sitting here blabbing must be all those preg hormones again!

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