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what do you think will happen, politically (not economically) post-Brexit?(19 Posts)
I think, that however Brexit is negotiated, there will be many unhappy people out there, who (rightly or wrongly) will feel let down by democracy, and far fewer people will go out and vote in future elections.
I expect to see Labour and the Conservatives diminish substantially in importance, and other parties, from either side of the existing political spectrum, take their places. This has happened in both France and Italy recently, after all.
I would love to see the emergence of a centrist party, but, if the reasonable Labour politicians sitting it out on the back benches aren't prepared to do anything apart from bide their time, it's not going to happen.
The Tory party will be a spent force. Apart from anything else, no party has managed to do more than 3 terms in power (I think that's the case anyway).
I'm just throwing this out, as I'm interested to know what others think.
The two main parties do seem to have moved to the far left and far right. I don't know why the Lib Dems aren't doing better, maybe because they're anti Brexit and the voters all love Brexit because it's going so great and looks set to deliver all it promised?
I hope I haven't ruined your thread OP because I think you ask a very interesting question and I'd like to hear what more knowledgeable posters think.
The Tory party will be a spent force
I don't think this is true - they will shift the blame somehow and people will vote them in any case! I don't think we can look to Italy as an example as the political landscape (and voting system) is very different there.
people will still vote tory - the reason they haven't stabbed May in the back yet is because this is a clusterfuck of immense proportions that no-one wants to take on as PM in the tory party.
ireland is complicated, and she can't negotiate a trade deal worth anything.
we are going to be a poorer country still paying out to the EU because of xenaphobic little englanders. this will ensure that public services still dont get the funding they need and this will give the tries the excuse to introduce back door privatisation in an even greater way than they do now.
the whole thing makes me apoplectic
and the reasonn the lib dems aren't getting anywhere is because clegg fucked it the traitorous bastard
I think the FPTP system is acting as a brake both on the development of smaller parties and also on the development of a centrist party and any shift to the LibDems. I, personally, think that's a problem.
I also think this limits political engagement - and I think you may well be right about a drop in political participation.
I think the Conservatives are going to shift to the right - partly because of a shrinking base at constituency level and subsequent reliance on big donors. That's my prediction. I'm not betting on them being a spent force at all.
FPTP is interesting. If we didn't have FPTP, I'd suggest we'd see the growth of something like Legatum: some kind of regionalist-based political group. But FPTP inhibits that. So what happens when people find their political feelings aren't expressed in the representative parties? Interesting times ahead.
I was thinking about this after reading an article in last week's FT, by Tim Harford. The gist was that Referendums were a bad idea. The majority of voters don't understand the complexities of political life, and should stick to voting for a MP who will do the thinking for them.
My thought was, well, that would be great if I had someone I felt I wanted to vote for. But I haven't. And I think that many voters feel that way.
I happily voted for Blair twice, and I'm not happy with his legacy.
I really wish I'd have been more politically connected when the AVR Referendum came up, as I think the FPTP system is just not working.
About the Lib Dems - and this is a genuine question, not point scoring - they were the only party to openly state that they were anti-Brexit. Why didn't more people vote for them?
I think it's FPTP, lucy. In a lot of areas - because of FPTP - we have effectively a 2 horse race and the LDs aren't either of the 2 horses. In that situation, your vote is wasted, or worse - it's a gift to a party that is your least-favourite option.
I think FPTP is really letting us down at the moment.
unfortunately in my area cat it's a one horse race
It's so bad for encouragement of ordinary people into political life, too. Where's the incentive?
I really don't see any way we're going to et rid of FPTP in my life-time. I think it's such a shame the boat was missed.
This has happened in both France and Italy recently, after all.
The French political system is very different. It would be literally impossible to "do a Macron" in the UK. He got about 23% of votes in the first round of the presidential election, which is incidentally very close to what the Lib Dems got in the 2010 GE. They ended up with fewer than 10% of the seats in the HoC.
I think the LibDems will gain more support mainly from Labour voters
Tory Party (which has moved more to the centre than under Cameron) will get another leader maybe Amber Rudd I think Boris’ ship may have sailed and the Tories shall probably win the next election comfortably
UKIP would have been in national office for years & the push for referendum even stronger if we had had PropRepresentation. EDL or BNP might have had a seat, too.
The UK is 'exceptional' in Europe for having a faily inflexible electoral system. The far-right in the UK (and technically the centrists too) gained popularity at the EU but notably not at Westminister - due to FPTP.
Notably, Canada has FPTP, but it's dominant party are the Liberals (centrists, right-leaning in certain subdivisions), but they've frequently come third behind the Tories and NDP (Labour). It's a situation where there are three parties likely to form government alone, with the Greens and Quebec nationalists also having an influential role.
Australia and New Zealand have left-wing parties willing to form collation governments with far-right parties, something even Continental Europe won't do.
I don't think the Tories will collapse but rather split off a far-right party. Labour might collapse in concorde with the rest of Euopre:
There isn't a party representing the middle class anymore, just the corporates and lower class (both sides are doing this right now), which can't linger around for too long.
The Tories will retain support from the Non-Muslim Indian community and Jewish communities too, who may not want to vote for a left-wing party that's too supportive of Muslims.
Change.org petition called final say will hopefully mean we get a say in the final deal if enough of us sign it
UKIP would have been in national office for years & the push for referendum even stronger if we had had PropRepresentation
Because UKIP were "protest votes"
hence why Farridge could never get elected - even in Thanet.
You cannot convert FPTP votes into PR votes because people will vote very differently if they think their vote will count
one of the reasons the referendum was so badly thought out was that lots of people voted against the Government to "send a message"
If there was PR and the 10% of LibDem votes even in safe Labour areas turned into 10% of MPs being Libdem, votes for minority parties would surge.
If there was PR the Tories would shatter into three or four smaller parties
If there was PR Labour would split into about eight parties
I think this a bit like the Thatcher era. Certain people have been manipulated (like when the Council houses were sold off to raise those who would never have ever been in the property owning class) but it will all fail as Brexit is not the main reason for the uk woes eg the 10 bn or whatever we save from EU membership will not be enough to refuel the public service . The same as the sell off of the Council houses led to a shortage of affordable housing and the State shielding private landlords etc The outcome depends on whether certain people now see through all this and realise that politicians do things for gain for themselves not only because they believe in something.
Where the Tories do have the lead though is their argument that the deficit must be reduced. People fear the spend spend approach of the Left . They know it costs. The younger generation will not forget the high cost of housing and the high care bills and NHS being full with older people -a problem that is only going to get worse .
Any party wishing to win in the future will need to come up with new ideas for solving the problem of the ageing population . Ironically such ideas are prevalent among our European neighbours and it is a TRAGEDY that the Uk has not used its EU membership to learn from its European neighbours as they have some very good ideas.
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