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Tory leadership election

(5 Posts)
Spinflight Sun 12-Nov-17 16:01:20

Whilst always a distinct possibility news reports that 40 of the needed 48 signatures have been received make this pretty likely in the coming days.

There's other signs too. Theresa May took the time to send an email to all tory members it appears, seemingly taking a brexity line despite her... image.

Also the strange shenanigans with Priti Patel, who was widely tipped to be a strong runner if there were a leadership race.

There's some interesting electoral calculus at play here assuming a further 8 signatures are received.

Firstly he who wields the knife doesn't wear the crown. Bringing down a tory PM is, oddly, seen as a disloyal act and to be punished. Oddly because there is unlikely to be a nest of vipers more disloyal or plotty than any conglomeration of tory MP's. smile

Hence the tactics, generally a few weeks or months after the conference, tend towards a stalking horse. A no hoper who is actually a supporter of one of the main candidates triggers the election and is then voted out.

The dynamics however are interesting. Theresa May was spared the need to ask the entire tory membership ( the Turnip taliban) as Andrea Leadstrom strangely dropped out in the final round of the last one. I somehow doubt that will happen this time.

Also if Jacob Rees Mogg gets to the final two he is almost certain to win, as he appears to command a lot of support in the party.

Hence the, mainly remainer, MPs who whittle the candidates down to two have quite a tricky job. If there is a single brexiter left in the final two they will likely see a Brexiter elected. Also they need to find a way of getting the inimitable Mog out early on before his campaign gains traction.

There are other curious dynamics too. A no hoper candidate can earn high ministerial position merely by running ( nests of vipers prize ambition in their leaders above all other things). You might think a no hoper wouldn't get any support however... Anyone who pledges their support to even a no hoper is pretty much assured promotion should they win. With 28 ministries or cabinet positions available it therefore makes 28 supporters quite easy to get. Pledge early to a favourite ( who rarely win in the end) for a small share of the spoils, remain as a floating voter hoping for higher promises later or pledge early to a no hoper hoping that the others all knife each other in the back tend to be the the options. smile

Meanwhile backing a favourite, who might have over 100 supporters pledged, doesn't necessarily result in much likely personal gain.

So should a no hoper survive the first round they can then pledge their support to one of the other remaining candidates in return for a ministerial position, access to private dungeon and gimp or other rewards. smile

Gove and Boris are clearly in advanced stages of plotting, indeed a letter from the two of them eyes only to Theresa May and her private secretary has been leaked. It doesn't take a genius therefore to see who has leaked it.

Whilst a bit of speculation over candidates etc can be interesting doesn't it strike you that this is all a shambles?

As a way of picking a party leader it seems reasonably democratic. As a way of picking ministers of state however.. You have to be kidding me.

Take Gavin Williamson, recently elevated with no prior experience to the Ministry of Defence, one of the four great offices of state. He was picked not for his experience, but for his lack of it.

The other likely candidate, Penny Mordaunt, was looked over for the MoD based upon her having actual experience of the military. The civil service considered that it would make it harder to house train her. So the PM actually taking into account the wants of the civil service in ministerial appointments....

Shine2018 Sun 12-Nov-17 16:07:05

Boooring

GhostofFrankGrimes Sun 12-Nov-17 16:08:22

I love a good Tory civil war, just in time for xmas too. They brought it on themselves. smile

mummmy2017 Mon 13-Nov-17 09:46:20

I blame the newspapers, they seem to be determined to create a massive story, and the HARM this is going to do the UK at this moment in time is beyond measure.
Just wait till they find a chink in Corbyn's persona and see how well you like that.
This is not about what is good for the UK, but about making money from selling papers.

GhostofFrankGrimes Mon 13-Nov-17 16:37:34

Just wait till they find a chink in Corbyn's persona and see how well you like that.

Gutter press have be character assassinating Corbyn for the last 2 years

Sun and Mail Online both take down stories claiming Jeremy Corbyn was 'dancing a jig' on way to Cenotaph

www.pressgazette.co.uk/sun-and-mail-online-both-take-down-stories-claiming-jeremy-corbyn-was-dancing-a-jig-on-way-to-cenotaph/

This is not about what is good for the UK, but about making money from selling papers

May dosen't seem to mind

Theresa May rounded off another shit day by paying homage to Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre

www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/11/09/theresa-may-another-day-paid-homage-daily-mail-paul-dacre/

Sadly this country is getting what it deserves.

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