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Does anyone else wish that we could follow France's example in the polls?

7 replies

lucydogz · 29/09/2017 11:46

i.e. ditch the two main parties in favour of something completely new?
Part of me thinks it's bound to happen - I feel so much distaste for both parties right now, especially Labour, who, IMO, are indulging themselves in an orgy of self-congratulation for not doing as badly as everybody said they would. Which won't translate to a victory next time.
The non-Corbyn MPs seem to be quietly sitting on their hands, waiting for it all to pass over, when they should recognise that the party has slipped out of their grip and get out there and start a party that people like me can vote for.

OP posts:
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GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/09/2017 14:09

Yes, let's blame Labour for the last 7 years of Tory rule. Hmm

I wholeheartedly welcome corbyns break from the failed neo liberal consensus.

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Mistigri · 29/09/2017 21:13

Very different electoral context in France. The system makes it easier for a new party to make a breakthrough. Much harder in a FPTP system.

There is a huge problem in the UK, though, where a huge slice of the population feels that their views are not represented by either of the parties that has any chance of forming a government. My personal circle is left-leaning liberal and few of us feel that either of the main parties work for their interests. But it's not only left-leaning people who are effectively disenfranchised. I work for a big UK listed company, in a business unit where almost everyone is well paid and highly educated. Lots of habitual Tory voters as you'd expect, some Lib Dem, the odd Lab - all remainers. I don't think any of us feel that the current government represents our views, but few of us think that a pro-brexit Labour government would be much better.

People like us number in the millions and include some of the best educated sections of society. It's a very odd situation where such a huge and potentially influential segment of the electorate (people who keep abreast of current affairs, are articulate, often politically motivated) is effectively ignored by the main political parties. But I don't see any obvious solution to the problem.

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Carolinesbeanies · 29/09/2017 23:45

Never one to hide your light under a bushel hey Misti. Wink

OP, its useful to look at the wider picture. Almost entire western democracies as we know them, are in or headed for, coalition and minority governance. Heres a quick run down;

France, whilst Macron managed around 66% of the vote in a two horse race, (against Le Pen, could he have a worse opponent?) turn out around 60%, the following French parliamentary elections had the lowest turnout in their history of about 35%. Since that point Macrons dropped through the floor in popularity. He now has around a 36% approval and dropping. (He had a 62% approval immediately post election) French truckers are currently blockading fuel depots, and fuel shortages are spreading, though of course its not widely reported here. Dont wish for a UK Macron OP, hes really not what hes portrayed as.

German elections last weekend, saw Merkel hit 32% of the vote leaving her massively short of what she needed and currently in a coalition nightmare.

In Belgium, the largest party achieved 20% of the vote at the last elections, but the current Prime Minister, Charles Michel, comes from a party which polled 9%. They still hold the world record for a democracy not having a government, the longest, at nearly 2 years in 2010/11.

Spain too, failed to elect a government in their 2015 elections, so had another go in 2016. Rajoy is now in power with 28% of the vote. (And currently firefighting in Catalonia as well as elsewhere)

Cant keep track of Italy, a coalition since the last election, electoral law changes since, and the right wing 5 star currently leading polls for the next election that must be held before next spring. Think its safe to say itll be a coalition again. Last time, the lead parties polled about 25% of the vote.

Netherlands, election held March 2017, Geert Wilders far right party 2nd highest vote. Havent had a formal government since (they cant agree, so its a caretaker government) and as an aside their GDP has gone up 3% . Grin

Greece has had 6 elections since 2007, and currently a coalition.

In Ireland, the largest party is Fine Gael, with 25% of the vote.

Heading north, Denmark has had minority governments since 2011, largest party achieving 26% of the vote, Finland has been coalition since 2011, last election largest party acheived 21%. Sweden too in coalition.

In short, if youre a betting person, the days of any majority governance are over. Where does that leave the electorate? Well some would argue more fairly represented.
In reality, no one happy, and impotent governments unable to organise a piss up in a brewery and therefore utterly reliant on corporate governance.

Congratulations EU.

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Mistigri · 30/09/2017 07:49

French truckers are currently blockading fuel depots, and fuel shortages are spreading, though of course its not widely reported here. Dont wish for a UK Macron OP, hes really not what hes portrayed as.

I'm still not sure what I think of Macron (my OH is a Macronista so I like playing devils advocate Wink) but he's doing what he said he would do. He's doing it quite cleverly too, only pissing off one or two interest groups at a time. It is much too early to know how successful he will be, but some of the things he is trying to do - notably, reduce the cost and the administrative burden on small businesses - is something that I would expect Tory supporters like Caroline to approve of (in fact I find it baffling that they seem so negative about Macron - I can only assume it's because he is pro Europe).

One of the issues for centre parties is that they get attacked by ideologues from both sides, even though they inevitably have a fair bit of policy overlap with both sides. The French system with its second round run-off which forces voters to choose from only two alternatives seems to (partly) solve this problem. Under FPTP, it is very hard for third parties to make any headway in the UK: the collapse of UKIP and - going back a few decades - the SDP are a good illustrations of this.

The other issue right now is that the politically disaffected in the UK currently span too wide a political range to fit easily into a new party, although I suppose that Macron has shown that it is possible to fit the equivalent of one nation Tories and centre left social democrats into a single party. In the case of En Marche the common feature is a pragmatic/ technocratic rather than a ideological approach to politics. I don't think that would translate well to the UK (for a start you'd struggle to find many MPs or political candidates who qualify as technocrats).

By the way, the fuel blockades haven't really gone anywhere (so far anyway) - I know that certain MN posters like to spread fear of the imminent collapse of the French economy from their bedrooms in Tunbridge Wells, but speaking as a French resident of two decades, I can now indulge in a rare moment of yah boo sucks since our economy is growing faster than yours Grin.

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Carolinesbeanies · 30/09/2017 10:53

Coo Misti, youre sailing close to the wind on your economy claims. GDP 1.7% to UKs 1.5%. Public debt France 99.2% of GDP? Yep Macrons gone for a business boost in his budget to relaunch the slumping French economy, but its not just French truckers sitting around eating Yorkies muttering dissent, as you well know.

www.marketwatch.com/story/french-public-debt-rises-to-992-of-gdp-2017-09-29-34852610

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Mistigri · 30/09/2017 12:08

Protest is part of the French way of life. I know it looks radical from a British point of view, but people here are much less passive.

The French economy certainly has its issues, but consistently predicting imminent collapse in European economies, which then consistently fails to occur, makes you look a bit hysterical.

It also strikes me as thoroughly odd that British conservatives are so furiously anti-Macron when many of his policies are seeking to introduce in France some of the labour market liberalisation that has occurred under right and centre governments in the UK over the last 30 odd years. What is it that you have against him?

I can understand why a lot of people in the UK would like their own Macron figure: millions of Britons, including the OP, no longer feel that they are adequately represented by any political party. That's not healthy for democracy. Whether or not a Macron clone is what is needed is another question - as I said above the British electoral context is very different, it's difficult to see a politician as (objectively) dull as Macron being elected.

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Spinflight · 01/10/2017 00:05

No.

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