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WTO here we come!(54 Posts)
If one side Can't, and the other side Won't.
We get no deal and get WTO.
Thought this from the start and each day makes me surer this is what will happen.
We are not even prepared for WTO terms. New schedules would need to be agreed and, at least in the medium term, certified.
What a total mess.
UK-EU Trade would only remain a mess if the EU non negotiated schedule to March 2019, continues to put unreasonable ‘Round 1’ demands on the UK, and the more fundamental mutual prosperity of future Trade, last on the agenda.
The UK as a mainly ‘Services’ economy, and the City here is already assuming no ‘passporting’ rights to do financial services business with the EU from London (so moving on average around 20% of their total business that is EU related, to Europe), one would assume that IF the EU is commercially orientated – that an EU that sells far, far more solid ‘stuff’, and of a much higher net cash value TO the UK – would get their ‘stuff together on Trade a lot earlier, as WHAT would the UK be paying a divorce bill premium, for?
If European businesses don’t want to speak up on their own commercial behalf, then so be it, WTO is the only option, and ‘the man from……the WTO’ doesn’t seem to think it will be major problem for parties of good-will – but that’s the problem of a UK-EU trade agreement in the first place e.g. the bottom wipes on the OTHER side, trying to extort tens of Euro billions cash, without the basic respect of a detailed invoice.
“Brexit will not cause UK trade 'disruption' - WTO boss”
”“The head of the World Trade Organisation has vowed to ensure Britain will not face a trade "vacuum or a disruption", however tough its exit from the European Union.”
Brexit may not cause trade disruption with trade partners with whom we already trade on WTO terms. But the 44% of UK exports that are destined for the EU (along with 53% of UK imports) most certainly would be disrupted by a move to WTO terms.
(Those figures exclude trade with countries where the UK benefits from an existing FTA with the EU - those FTAs fall away on brexit day unless they are renegotiated).
Yes misti WTO trade will not change for those we currently trade with under WTO rules.
It will be massively disruptive to thosse countries we have deals through the EU with.
I’m sure the Europhile’s on here know far more about WTO trade effects than that nice Mr Azevedo as head of the World Trade Organisation mentioned further above.
There is a reason the UK government negotiating position mentions the ‘mutual benefits’ of retaining trade between the UK-EU as close to current terms as possible, and equally there is a reason why the EU want to stiff us for up to Euro 100 billion in divorce penalties before THEY want to start to discuss post Brexit ‘relations’.
“Hard Brexit would cost EU £8bn more than Britain every year”
“EU companies would have to pay £13 billion year in tariffs compared to £5 billion for British firms, says thinktank”
Of course, if the EU hadn’t become a political project, rather than the original trading project we joined called a Common Market, Brussels bureaucrats and larger member state governments (who will have to stump up our annual fees when we leave), their so called ‘elites’, might care a feck for the small to medium sized EU businesses - who now see that those who represent THEM and theirs future prosperity, put UK-EU Trade last on their list of negotiating priorities.
Is writing this guff your day job thea, or do you actually work in a trade related area? What's your expertise?
I suspect Mr Azevedo's day job at the WTO is trade, and that is what we are talking about - do you trump his expertise?
Are you disputing that in VALUE terms, the EU exports more to us, than we do to them?
As the UK's economy is over 80% Services, and some of our 'higher value' trade via Investment Banking, that is EU related, is already looking to move the EU - as the EU Negotiators in a feeble attempt to get their all their Headquarters and 100% of the fees generated here over THERE failed - how much would that reduce our 'exports' to the EU?
So my 'trade' expertise, which FYI was for over 30-years, is none of your beeswax, just stick to the facts rather than the Europhile Project Fear, and we'll have some interesting debates.
His expertise is trade under WTO terms. We don't trade with the EU under WTO terms.
You appear to be conceding that a big chunk of higher value trade in services will move out of the UK into the EU. What I don't understand is why you think destroying UK jobs and tax revenues is a good thing.
We are talking about using the WTO as a "IF we can do nothing else" position.."
It's there as a safety net for trade.
Each country will have to think about how this is going to effect them, so this means due to the EU as a whole sending more goods to us, they must have in meeting expressed a worry that no trade deal with the UK won't all be sunlight and roses.
This is part of the reason I don't understand why it's got to be left till after the Divorce bill to be discuss.
WTO terms will be damaging for both sides, although the impact will be relatively greater on the UK because we are one country losing privileged access to 27 markets (whereas the EU27 are losing privileged access to just one market).
For this reason it is odd that the UK negotiators have been so slow out of the gate.
Re your ” We don't trade with the EU under WTO terms.”
The EU negotiating schedule clearly want the UK to pay a contribution divorce bill PREMIUM first, yet offers nothing in return e.g. ‘frictionless trade not possible’, ONCE they get around to talking about Trade, which on their insistence is around last on the list.
So with the EU not bending on EU courts supreme over our re their citizens (when the ECJ doesn’t in any other non EU country), or sensibly offering the ACTUAL Brexit divorce liability bill before negotiating the premium they are clearly after, we ain’t going to get very far - and so as Mummmy eludes to, realistically WTO trade terms looks the only option open come March 2019 - if EU negotiating tactics continues backing us into a non-negotiations basis, corner.
As it is due to the German Elections on September 24th, and perpetual German coalitions can take months of horse trading to form agreed policies, there is talk about resuming negotiations at the end of this year.
”You appear to be conceding that a big chunk of higher value trade in services will move out of the UK into the EU. What I don't understand is why you think destroying UK jobs and tax revenues is a good thing.”
You know full well the EU already insists that EU business currently conducted from London, after Brexit will not get regulatory ‘passporting rights’, and so those relatively few jobs within the 130,000 direct and related financial jobs in London, will have to move to an office with additional reserve capital (and the profit centre) within a Eurozone capital - and capitals like Frankfurt and Paris are already planning to deregulate some of their labour laws for this ‘hire and fire’ industry.
Even though I’d bet that in ADDITION to new EU financial ‘rules’, taking EU corporate finance, trading, sales departments away from the similar global relationship managers in the London HQ, and the need for additional EU capital (putting up the cost of conducting investment banking activities), will DIMINISH the investment banking service the EU currently gets from London.
Another ‘cut EU nose, to spite Brexit face’ as the EU negotiating Schedule looks ever more like Corbyn’s General Election manifesto, where different members were asked to send in demands, and they were ‘cut and pasted’ into a document without much thought to the end result.
"WTO terms will be damaging for both sides, although the impact will be relatively greater on the UK because we are one country losing privileged access to 27 markets (whereas the EU27 are losing privileged access to just one market)."
I repeat, in value terms the EU sells more stuff to us than we do them, especially solid stuff, and for a mainly services economy country like the UK, that gap will get larger when all things EU financial has to be relocated the Eurozone cities.
Surely its the EU negotiators not looking at the Eurozones woeful unemployment rates, and all those millions of poor youngsters on Temp Contracts - who would be let go in an instant if the EU ceased trading with us.
P.S. Add more jobless to an EU thinking they may have to put up taxes to cover the Euro 20 million they estimate they will lose from Brexit, and the EU economic ‘recovery’ that several years after the crash finally emerged after the ECB began (and still) printing money and throwing it out of helicopters - will be short lived.
There is a MUTUAL benefit to UK-EU Trade, and its time the EU and their ‘5th column’ of MPs in Westminster, constructively recognised that, and treated the UK position with respect.
in value terms the EU sells more stuff to us than we do them
This is hardly surprising as the EU27 economy is much larger than the UK's. And the pain is split 27 ways (not equally, of course).
UK loses privileged access to a trading bloc of 450m consumers with GDP > €12000bn. Meanwhile EU27 lose privileged access to one €2000bn market with 65m consumers.
Plus as you've pointed out yourself individual EU27 countries will gain from taking service sector jobs and revenues from the UK.
EU Negotiator Barnier is supposed to be negotiating for the EU's individual members as a WHOLE, although as I've pointed out on many an occasion, Brussels don't give a rats tail about major problems within individual states - so I get your point.
UK loses privileged access to 450 mil where in the largest economies apparently its 'natural' to have over 10% unemployment, tens of million are on Temp Contracts, about 15 million in Italy are measured as in poverty, and the UK will put VAT and all sorts on imports - if THAT is what the EU wants, it is in there hands to add the 'friction' to trade as threatened.
So once again, why would the UK want to pay a Premium in a divorce bill if they are being cocks and trying to damage our economy - its EU negotiations fuckwittery?
Meanwhile we can look to better relationships/trade with the 52 nations in the Commonwealth we have neglected since in the EU, with their 2.3 bil people.
It took Australia 15-months to do a Trade Deal with the U.S., and 7-years for the EU to do a trade deal with Canada - as everything is by 27 country protectionism and consensus - when countries have to be nimble to see new opportunities.
Yes, we will lose finacial service jobs to the EU as thats what they wanted to take business from the UK, but if the largest underwriters/risk taking American Investment Banks get pissed off with their new layers of EU regulation and extra costs, they could easily restrict the financing of countries, companies so jobs in the EU - to offset against a few more more jobs and taxes - but we are LEAVING and understood there would be costs as well as gains.
UK loses privileged access to 450 mil where in the largest economies apparently its 'natural' to have over 10% unemployment, tens of million are on Temp Contracts, about 15 million in Italy are measured as in poverty
This is just silly. Some of the most deprived areas in the EU are in the UK; government figures put the number of people living in relative poverty at over 13 million. The ONS estimates the number of UK residents "at risk of poverty" (income below 60% of median) as being very close to the EU average - by this measure, incidentally, the UK performs about as well as Italy and significantly worse than France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Scandinavian countries. Many British employees are on zero hours contracts, or work fewer hours than they would like. A British permanent contract gives you fewer legal rights than (say) a French temporary one.
You have some really odd, and objectively quite wrong, ideas of the superiority of the UK's economy and job market vs other EU countries.
"Brussels don't give a rats tail about major problems within individual states"
Because those individual states are democracies with soveriengty and have power over those decisions themselves.
Its funny you Brexshiteers points on one side are always at an opposite from what you say on another.
"Yes, we will lose finacial service jobs to the EU as thats what they wanted to take business from the UK"
No its what you wanted, you voted to leave, you were told that passporting rights might not be granted, you chose to vote leave anyway.
U.S companies will follow regulations in the E.U like they do currently, they are leaving because we are leaving.
"They could easily restrict the financing of countries, companies so jobs in the EU - to offset against a few more more jobs and taxes"
Most E.U sovereign debt is owned by E.U financial institutions and citizens, the U.S has its own sovereign debt problem. They won't restrict the finance of companies because, you know, profits.
The Remainers say everything Brexit related is all the UK’s fault, everything EU poops roses, and when it is shown how much harm the EU wants to do to us, its ‘well what did you expect’. lol
Look I understand that the UK voted to Leave and that’s how it is going to be, but for fuck sake, for those MPs and other Europhiles just stop saying that the UK should pay a huge divorce bill for the PRIVILEGE of being shafted by your precious ‘everything is great’ EU - as you look stupid. lol
Regarding Investment Banking in the City, lets get one thing straight, not ONE U.S. Investment bank that between them have the largest share of global business that all countries and companies rely on, is moving their European HQ to Europe – they are all moving as little as possible to meet EU regulations, much to the huge disappointment of the larger Eurozone members – which is partially why countries like France are frank that they want to try to damage us, even apparently if they gain little themselves.
” City of London accuses France of plot to ‘wreck Britain’ – even if it gains nothing itself”
But as Investment Banks aim to have around 10-20% return on equity deployed, an annually often make huge departmental decisions on expected investment and liquidity flows to achieve that return (hence the ‘hire and fire’ reputation), Europe has to be very careful that investment banks and fund managers the EU economy relies on (when the ECB helicopter stops throwing QE funds down) - do not decide all the bother of moving part of their business with extra capital required to Europe, means they scale down their activities to EU members, or move those resources to other regional business areas.
“Trillions in Stock and Derivative Trades at Risk Over New EU Rules”
There is a $483 trillion global market in derivatives, and EU investment banks and large companies need the depth of markets and liquidity the American firms bring to the capital markets.
So the EU and France in particularly, should be careful what damage they wish for on the UK, as could easily come back and bite them in the arse, 10 fold.
"The Remainers say everything Brexit related is all the UK’s fault, everything EU poops roses, and when it is shown how much harm the EU wants to do to us, its ‘well what did you expect’. lol "
No, no one ever said the EU was perfect. This is your credulous default position every time someone critiques your points, its hyperbole.
The EU is not trying to do us harm either, it has stated very clearly what its position is, that the UK cannot have all the benefits of EU membership without the responsibilities, yet the brexiteers paint this as unreasonable.
"Kust stop saying that the UK should pay a huge divorce bill for the PRIVILEGE of being shafted by your precious ‘everything is great’ EU - as you look stupid. lol"
We are not being shafted, the UK comitted to spending, and it was known BEFORE the referendum that these agreed comittments would have to be met.
"not ONE U.S. Investment bank that between them have the largest share of global business that all countries and companies rely on, is moving their European HQ to Europe "
Yet many are moving some operations there, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The EU will stil have access to US banking. Your point about France is interesting, you see this is a concequence of the BREXIT vote, it isn't France trying to mess us up, they've seen an opportunity to attract business, firms will be moving, because of the Brexit vote. You were all told prior to the vote that leaving put the city at risk, its why the vast majority of the city supported remain.
The regulations which you are complaining about, could be an issue, might not be, but the regulations in the EU are designed to stop another crash such as the one in 2008.
Sore Arse, you are a typical brexiteer, all bluster and no substance, oh and you seek to blame the concequences of your decisions on others.
Sorry little quitling, you don't get to do that, this is your mess.
Sorry, I got as far as your "No, no one ever said the EU was perfect." and had to stop as I peed my pants.
There are clearly huge problems with the EU, how a one-currency-interest rate -fits-all all 19 in the Eurozone, the structural unemployment and Temp employment due to overly tight labour laws, the move to a Federal State of Europe etc etc etc - and prior to the Referendum I can just hear Clegg saying the same thing. 'the EU is not perfect'.
To me its the Europhiles equivalent on a football pitch of yesteryear to 'the magic sponge' as can cover all injuries with one application, so just accept it works, and don't ask how.
But this is why the UK is right to leave,
P.S. Yes every investment bank doing business with EU clients has to move some staff to the EU, but most investment banks have several thousand staff and it will be relatively few - that is not a problem, yes everyone said prior, and they are ONLY moving due to more EU regulation not because they want to - which is soooo Brussels and why we are best out.
But there are people in the EU worried there will be investment banking issues that will slow finance to the member states, as one bank has the muscle to underwrite/launch a corporate bond in the billions every other day, so if at all diminished, the few billion in tax receipts raised, could be lost many times over.
But thats Brexit life, and we need to get on with it and replace those taxes with other commerce, like maybe selling Islington to France.
I peed my pants.
Do you make a habit of this? How old are you?
We are losing access to 27 markets, the vast majority of which hardly matter to us.
Yet those 27 countries account for 44% of our exports and 54% of our imports.
Not going to affect us at all is it.
the vast majority of which hardly matter to us.
Out of the UK's top 10 trading partners for goods, 8 are EU countries.
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