Brexit consequences(1000 Posts)
Can't find the old one, despite a search. Hence a year on...
I started it to compare the doom and gloom predictions from people who should know better, especially the treasury, to actual observable facts.
Thus far the treasury predicted our borrowing costs would soar by over 130 points. In fact they're down about 100.
No trade deals possible before (I forget the date they said, was far in the future though) compared to actual negotiations beginning with the USA later this month with the president firmly behind them. Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, South Korea and several others I've forgotten have shown a great desire for a deal quickly.
Ftse 100 and 250 are well up, just shy of 7500.
Best of all from a macro economic perspective is inflation touching 3%. When you are £1800 billion in debt rating that away with inflation is far preferable to actually paying it off.
Growth has dropped a bit, though nowhere near the instant recession that was predicted. Bit early to say though this is likely due to the referendum.
External investment is actually nicely up, with several major companies announcing various large commitments.
Things could be rosier, though it would be a struggle to describe them generally as bad, quite contrary to 'informed' opinions. Even the oecd recently ate their pre referendum words.
Brexit hasn't happened yet. Let's have this conversation in five years time.
Things that have happened - fruit farmers being unable to get enough workers to harvest their crops because even though brexit hasn't happened yet and European workers can still come here legally, they don't want to because who wants to go where you aren't welcome.
Likewise recruitment in the NHS is already suffering.
Yep, come back when we've actually left the EU and we'll see how rosy everything looks then.
The predictions I mentioned, and quoted directly in the original thread, were immediate effects upon a vote for brexit, not predicated upon actual exit.
The timescales were the choice of the bodies and economists involved, not my own.
The sun is shining, birds are singing. Tralala. "Everything for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
Well, the currency exchange is down EUR to name one. That does wipe off billions on the export market.
It's a slow decline, only to get worse as negotiations move on.
You are certainly trying hard to look on the bright side. The UK just posted far and away the worst economic results of all G7 countries!
We are also bottom of the list for economic growth out of all the EU member states this year, below Greece.
According the the EU Mr Juncker, the EU and their 500 million citizens will slowly see their share of emerging GDP growth fall from 18% to 15%.
The lower tax UK was the fastest growing economy of the developed nations for a few years until now, creating more jobs than the whole Eurozone put together.
While the UK has around 4.6% unemployment, France has around 9.6% unemployment, Italy 12%, Spain around 18.4% etc - and the Eurozone has mass youth unemployment with 50% employed on Temp contracts - and so 10-years after the global crash, as the European Central Bank is STILL pumping in Euro trillions of liquidity.
Could you please explain WHY that is, and why the UK should aspire to that EU economic performance?
UK does currently have higher employment than the EU, it's true, but wages are rising the lowest out of all EU nations compared to inflation, so we end up in the situation where people are in employment but many at not earning a "living" wage.
Data just released also shows that despite the fall in the value of sterling, British exports have not done as well as expected while EU exports overall have increased more than ours.
There really hasn't been any positive economic news since Article 50 was triggered. Even the most pro-leave voices have said they are expecting a recession.
As you have pointed out, Thea, the UK was outperforming the eurozone countries before Brexit. We were in the enviable position of benefiting from the single market while not being involved in any of the difficulties of the Eurozone (the UK had been exempted from any bail-outs of Eurozone countries). Now we are choosing to give that all up, and already our economy is suffering.
I always said that the doom & gloom, 'the sky will fall' claims from the remain camp were not helpful. In the same way that the Leave claims were outright lies too. Neither camp covered themselves with glory. My point was always that in the long run, we'd OVERALL be better in the EU than out. In short, we'd be richer inside than out. Not that we couldn't manage OK outside of the EU. The UK is a large educated and flexible economy. We will do OK. However I wanted us to do better than OK.
On some of the points above from OP. Yes, the FTSE is up. But mainly because Sterling has crashed in value meaning that overseas profits are likely to be higher. The FTSE being by its very nature, a measure of our largest companies will be more bouyant as a result. It is NOT a sign that everything is tickety boo.
You don't mention that many things have shot up in price. From electrical equipment, to holidays, to many items of food. I've seen a huge increase in costs since much of the equipment I need is imported and prices are set against USD.
Arguing that our debts will be lower as a result of inflation going up is really the cup is half full at its best. Savers and pensioners will suffer. Our wage rates are not rising in line meaning in real terms we're actually getting poorer.
And on the other hand, let's see a year on where we are with Brexit? Where's that £350m per week for the NHS then? I know...it's only been a year. Anyone who voted for Brexit care to say that the money will come?
No...of course not. We all know it was lies. Lies many decided they wanted to believe. If only to get Schrodinger's immigrants to stop coming to good old Blighty and nicking all our fish & chips.
Yes, the FTSE is up. But mainly because Sterling has crashed in value meaning that overseas profits are likely to be higher
Yes! Exactly. Not because people have rerated the UK.
Firstly may I remind you that the UK in 2008/9 lost around 5-6% of GDP/output (far more than any other economy of a similar size I saw) the UK only recovered back a year or so ago, and real earnings in the UK were falling from 2008, and as only the UK had deregulated bank lending from 1997, we had to part nationalise UK banks with stuffed balance sheets other countries never had to – a bummer as usually bank lending is the engine of growth after any recession, never mind the worst in GDP terms for over 80-years.
In the Eurozone and real earnings, apart from the likes of Germany and Poland, I believe real earning for the rest of the Eurozone countries have been just below 1% annually for the past several years, so I’d be interested to see any authoritative link showing otherwise – as that would tie in with their obvious surplus of domestic labour not squeezing pay rates higher.
So based on the evidence, in jobs, unemployment, and international pay rates since 2008/9, people may not want to see it, but we have done better since 2010 with the help of low tax policies, which I guess is why so many EU workers wanted to come here.
Regarding lower Sterling not helping UK exports as much as expected, well I’d say we are doing quite well considering from 1997 to 2013 UK manufacturing fell from around 21% of our economy to around 12%, with around 2 million jobs lost out of 4.5 million, 1 million by 2005 – a few years before the financial/economic crash even began, which was a bit careless of the government during a global growth/credit boom.
Regarding Article 50, considering the kerfuffle trying to trigger the bloody thing, the disingenuous UK MPs still calling for a ‘Soft’ Brexit to delay a final deal when the EU top dogs like Juncker and Tusk say soft in not an option e.g. we have to leave the Single Market to control our borders, and the fact we just come close to a Marxist ‘fat state’ government promising to raise business taxes back to 1970’s penal levels to fund it – NO WONDER with all those added risks, businesses lose confidence and slow investment and job creation.
Re Single Market Tariff Free Trade, the EU exports far more to us than we do to them so ‘mutually’ beneficial to THEM and then some, so I’m not sure of your point, other than the Eurozones previous stagnant growth and prosperity, as our main market has held us back, so as there is no reason not to think EU and UK company-to-company trade won’t continue.
So if they get their economic act together, and we can strike new deals of our own without the protectionist baggage of 27 other EU members, we literally have the best of all continents ahead of us.
Great news for the fishing industry and I think it's a good thing that seasonal workers will have o be paid better. I'm willing to pay more for British foods if we have too. Btw the Coop are now sourcing all meat from the UK which is another very positive step. I'm very happy with how things are going.
Re your "And on the other hand, let's see a year on where we are with Brexit? Where's that £350m per week for the NHS then? I know...it's only been a year. Anyone who voted for Brexit care to say that the money will come?"
I keep hearing that gripe, but wasn't the Leavers point point that we can do more with our £10-13bil net EU contribution money here at home rather than contribute to the emerging EU states and new members in the wings like Bosnia?
Well as we will be contributing the the EU Budget for a few years now, why on earth would anyone expect that money to NOW be available??
I find it amusing that many asking where that £350 million is now, are in also in favour of the UK paying the EU euro 50-100 billion in divorce fees, without an invoice their chief negotiator Bernier still can't provide, to keep them 'appy.
Looking for millions, happy to pay tens of billions, what messed up UK politics it that.
The big EU experiment is a transfer of wealth from larger countries to smaller countries, unless Germany, as everyone buys their cars and white goods and get it back another trade surplus way - which leaves major financial contributor countries like the UK worse off, as don't get the surplus benefits.
"I find it amusing that many asking where that £350 million is now, are in also in favour of the UK paying the EU euro 50-100 billion in divorce fees"
That amply demonstrates your extremely muddled thinking. The people asking where that £350 million are the people that don't want to pay for a divorce at all...
I take it people are getting worried at Brexit HQ then if they're starting these threads?
You can NOT compare the rates of unemployment in the uk and in France like this.
Because in the uk you have
- loads of part time work (that will not allow you to live on them), zero hours contract and so on, all of which are reducing the number of job seekers even though these are people would will want/need a full time job to be able to live on it.
WHereas in France
- most jobs are full time, there is little flexibility in the market which makes it harder to find another job BUT when you have your job, you will NOT be made redudant etc... Plus there is no part time job etc...
If you were adding all the people who have only been able to find part time job (e.g. Whilst being required to be available 24/7 for example when working in a shop), i suspect that the numbers will be quite similar actually.
In terms of real earning, the UK is only country in the EU zone who has seen real wage going down
No other EU country has done so (even if it's lower blabla)
Re export, you do realise that the reason why exports haven't gone up is because British companies have decided to pocket the extra money instead of decreasing their prices to be able to sell more?
The way I look at it, they have been worried about the future and have tried their best to build a little cushion to face whatever is coming our way.
The 350 millions a week is 18 billions a year though.....
Please don't tell me that people were supposed to somehow 'know' it was a way of talking. Because for most people it wasn't (unless you were part of the VERY SCEPTICAL people who didn't think Tories would ever be happy to spend that sort of amount of the NHS/welfare in general).
I would strongly advise you to read what leavers think now and the reason why they voted to leave. And often, this is because what they wanted was the end of austerity measures. They wanted 350millions going to the NHS. And quite a few of them have now a change of heart. Because they realise that they have been LIED TO (sorry that they were obvioulsy too sumo to realise this woudo never happen. And that they had been taken for a ride again.)
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