How reliable is the Nowcast?

[LaserShark]

It seems to be suggesting a Tory landslide would happen if the election was today. I would love to disbelieve it but I don't feel that hopeful.

[LaserShark]

Sorry for double post!

[Beebeeeight]

The Torres won't get that many seats in Scotland.

[LaserShark]

Great! Any more straws you can give me to clutch at would be much appreciated!

[Mistigri]

Polling in the UK right now is incredibly difficult, because pollsters got the result so wrong at the last election.

You can get a sense of how important turnout is by the difference between the raw polling data (some polling organisations have labour ahead in voting intention) and the data adjusted for likely turnout (all the polls have the tories ahead by this measure, but their lead varies from low single figures to double figures).

I'm not quite sure why it's so difficult to poll in the UK. Polling was very accurate in the French presidential election even with a four way race and a new party. In many cases it's the same companies running polls in both countries.

The upshot is that you should take any forecasts with an even larger pinch of salt than usual. Tories will probably win an overall majority, but the margin is anyone's guess.