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Clinton V Trump - into the final three weeks.

(1001 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 23-Oct-16 16:51:09

new thread. smile

lljkk Sun 23-Oct-16 19:17:53

17 days... I just want it over with, now. Like Brexit.

Mistigri Sun 23-Oct-16 19:27:39

It's basically all over isn't it? Bookies have started paying out.

I've got a bit bored with election watching, though I had a look at the early voting stats today. Concensus seems to be that they are encouraging for Clinton.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer Sun 23-Oct-16 20:05:04

Does anyone know (i could google but i am very lazy) how the election will run?

When the votes come in and which states are important and what time it will be over (bar the shouting grin)

Mistigri Sun 23-Oct-16 21:05:34

I gather that if HRC wins Florida (very likely), North Carolina (likely) and Pennsylvania (dead cert) then it is all over bar the shouting.

No idea about timing.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer Sun 23-Oct-16 21:07:40

Thanks misti

Fiderer Sun 23-Oct-16 21:14:15

Florida is barely above the MoE for Clinton.

North Carolina well below.

Many polls have PA also around the MoE.

I know the polls vary & the Electoral College is all but still. Not over yet imo.

lljkk Sun 23-Oct-16 21:15:24

Exit polls will give prelim results starting about 10am EST. We will get exit poll results all day for each state. The balloting is electronic so pretty quickly processed, which (I think usually) starts long before the real polls closed. Any early results will mostly be absentee ballots -- traditionally they were mostly conservative (elderly & military), but USA has large diaspora of 'Others' (like me) who tend to strongly vote Democrat. Plus some states count absentee votes after the ballot day, each state has own ways to do it.

By the time the polls close in California (7pm PST, 3am GMT), the final results will be pretty clear on POTUS race, but may need double counting & thus delayed results in the swing states.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer Sun 23-Oct-16 21:17:58

Thanks llijk

claig Sun 23-Oct-16 22:18:39

#TrumpTheEstablishment

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHsZxJlxHYw

Lweji Sun 23-Oct-16 23:32:46

Considering the penchant that Trump has for projecting, if you replace Clinton and establishment in that clip with Trump, I think you'll be closer to the truth.

Lweji Sun 23-Oct-16 23:36:26

I'm feeling slightly sad that I won't have much Internet connection at the time of the election.
Hopefully, it won't be too traumatic.

Mistigri Mon 24-Oct-16 07:36:52

I know the polls vary & the Electoral College is all but still. Not over yet imo.

Which is why I used the word "likely" not "certain" for Florida and NC.

The polls could be wrong, but in the case of those three states, it would require all recent polls to be wrong. And the thing about a margin of error is that it works both ways...

Mistigri Mon 24-Oct-16 07:39:35

(I'm talking about state polls there, if it's not obvious. All three states are quite well-polled, because they are or should be competitive).

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 24-Oct-16 07:40:59

if it is tight and a candidate contests particularly tight states then it could be flipping forever before we get the result.

Fiderer Mon 24-Oct-16 07:45:42

Agree, Misti.

Blimey, look at IBD vs ABC from yesterday. Trump +1 vs Clinton +12 hmm

From here my son is threatening to block it so I get some work done.

Lweji Mon 24-Oct-16 08:11:14

Those are national polls. Harder to get right. And don't reflect the electoral college.

ToujeoQueen Mon 24-Oct-16 11:05:21

Checking in to new thread brew

ImperialBlether Mon 24-Oct-16 11:22:22

Does anyone know what the betting offices here are thinking?

Lweji Mon 24-Oct-16 11:30:26

Apparently, some betting offices have started paying up for Clinton (from another thread).

ImperialBlether Mon 24-Oct-16 11:55:38

How can they pay up when the election hasn't happened yet?

Lweji Mon 24-Oct-16 11:58:52

Ah, it's Paddy Power
money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/news/paddypower-pays-hillary-clinton-bettors/

I don't know. It is weird.

But the odds are for Clinton, anyway.

claig Mon 24-Oct-16 11:59:07

Just had a look at the odds here. It is about 4/1 or 9/2 for Trump to win and 1/6 for Hillary.

But there are still 15 days to go and it is quite likely that the mainstream media may be lying about the real support levels etc.

claig Mon 24-Oct-16 12:01:05

'How can they pay up when the election hasn't happened yet?'

They probably think Trump will lose and they then pay out and hope that the punters take that money and bet on something else so that the firm recovers that money or some of it.

Lweji Mon 24-Oct-16 12:01:46

Yes, claig...

That's what it is.

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