Leaving EU risks - identified this week

[var123]

Just checking that I'm understanding this right. According to the statements made in the last week, the following will (or is likely to happen) if we leave the EU:-
● House prices may fall by 18%
● 250 famous actors, artists, musicians and writers will feel less "creative"
● Manchester will lose its trams
● Farming will suffer a depression, far more severe than a mere recession
● Scotland will leave the UK
● 48,000 jobs in the insurance sector at risk
● World War 3 (maybe)
● ISIS will be happy - that's a definite according the prime minister
● 3 million EU citizens who are already living in the UK might have to leave
● LGBT equal rights will stop



and then there's the more general stuff:

Worker's rights will revert to the Victorian era, the economy will be trashed, no one will ever want to buy or goods or services, we'll have to pay billions in EU levies to be allowed to buy EU goods, people who want to work in the NHS won't get work visas, etc., etc.

[SpringingIntoAction]

You forgot:

Food prices will increase
Interest rates will rise
Cancer care will be compromised
The NHS wil collapse
Putin will be happy

Are there no ends to the nonsense the Government will spout to browbeat us into relinquishing our democracy and replacing it with the EU bureaucracy?

[var123]

Of course... complete Armageddon!

If he even believed one tiny bit of it, it would be unbelievable that David Cameron was willing to contemplate campaigning for Brexit at the start of year (if he didn't get the renegotiated deal he wanted).

I can't think what the Vote Leave people are doing letting all this become the narrative - unless they are thinking to let the Remain group hang themselves with their increasingly incredible claims??

[Palehorse]

Yes, I'm just so pleased that vote leave have risen above the fray and resisted the temptation to make 'bananas' or wild xenophobic claims about Turks on the borders, nazi superstates, that speak to the lowest common denominator.

[var123]

I can't think why Turks would want to move here what with their country being a First World leader and all.
The superstate though - what else would you call a united states with its own government, currency and army?

[Spinflight]

Don't forget Godzilla..

Brexit will awaken him and he is planning on a rampage across London come June 24th.

I think Cameron is only starting to realise how much he has managed to humiliate himself. We have a sitting Prime Minister who is campaigning not to have increased powers and responsibility who has actively blocked any economic forecasting into an event he has personally created and even advocated.

Incompetent, irresponsible and devious, he is playing fast and loose with our economy whilst peddling lies and scaremongering.

Denying the Leave camp access to the civil service such that proper forecasting could be completed ( the only way it could be completed) is stupid enough. Recklessly stupid. Compounding this by then relying upon the 'lack of an economic plan" for his main scaremongering tactic is incomprehensibly so.

We are having a say in policy direction. He has displayed a dereliction of duty in not planning for a possible out vote that I think is unprecedented in our history.

[cakeycakeface]

Scotland WILL leave the UK in the event of Brexit. That's a reality. And Gibraltar probably will too.

[RortyCrankle]

cakeycakeface
Scotland WILL leave the UK in the event of Brexit. That's a reality. And Gibraltar probably will too.

Good luck with oil at rock bottom prices and several countries with separatist problems of their own who will be very reluctant to allow Scotland to join the EU. You also still have the problem of the pesky NO votters.

Oh there's also the small matter of any referendum requiring approval by Westminster and Cameron has said he won't even consider it until 2020.

If after all that you scraped in with a yes vote I seriously wish Scotland well, it's going to need it.

[cakeycakeface]

I am a No voter rorty. Indyref was one of the most stressful and depressing times in my life. Everyone I know voted No.

However, there are many No voters here who, when given the choice between being a part of the U.K., or a part of Europe, will opt for Scotland allying itself to Europe. And the margin between Yes and No is very narrow. That will swing it.

The U.K. outside the EU is an entirely different referendum prospect and if people in rUK think otherwise then you are not understanding what is happening in Scotland. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scotland will leave the UK if the UK splits from Europe.

[RortyCrankle]

Thank you for explaining, cakey. In that case I feel sorry for Scotland as I think if it leaves the UK, it's in for a very bumpy ride indeed. There is no guarantee that Scotland will get a fast and easy entry into the EU, in fact the reverse is probably true.

I do wish you good luck.

[Corcory]

So Cakey how on earth is that going to happen?
For a start an act of parliament is needed from Westminster to get another referendum and they are hardly going to do that. Secondly if Nicola Sturgeon thinks she can call a referendum on the strength of the fact that she wants Scotland in the EU then she had better make really sure that the EU definitely want us! They have already said no last year and I hardly think we would get a very good deal. We have very little bargaining power. We are not net contributors. We cost more than give so they would probably put up the costs to us to make it prohibitive.
So then we would have our biggest trading partners out of the EU - the rest of the UK - and us in it ! how does that work? Last figures I saw showed we 'exported' £47.6Billion to the rest of the UK and £11.6 Billion to the EU. and that doesn't include us selling half of our oil and gas to the rest of the UK.
She is talking complete rubbish. It really doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

[cakeycakeface]

* For a start an act of parliament is needed from Westminster to get another referendum and they are hardly going to do that.*

I disagree - with a heavy heart, I have to say. Scotland has a devolved parliament. If the majority of MSPs want another referendum and that is backed up by polls showing public opinion want it too, then it will be very difficult for Westminster to deny it. Most of the opposition parties have now said they will allow their MSPs a free vote.

Secondly if Nicola Sturgeon thinks she can call a referendum on the strength of the fact that she wants Scotland in the EU then she had better make really sure that the EU definitely want us!

That's going to be more difficult for them, I agree. But I think as far as voting to be Independent us concerned, all the SNP need to do us persuade voters it will be possible in the future to join the EU.

Longer term, you have to ask yourself whether the SNP care too much about wether it actually happens. Will they forfeit independence if the EU reject us. I do not believe they will. They are Bationalists above all else. For example, Jim Sillars (former SNP leader) is campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, but still wants Scotland to be Independent.

They have already said no last year

Did they? My impression was that they said Scotland could apply to join, as could any European country. What they didn't say was we could keep all the opt-outs that the UK had secured.

and I hardly think we would get a very good deal. We have very little bargaining power. We are not net contributors. We cost more than give so they would probably put up the costs to us to make it prohibitive.
So then we would have our biggest trading partners out of the EU - the rest of the UK - and us in it ! how does that work? Last figures I saw showed we 'exported' £47.6Billion to the rest of the UK and £11.6 Billion to the EU. and that doesn't include us selling half of our oil and gas to the rest of the UK.
She is talking complete rubbish. It really doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

All of that is totally true. And you haven't mentioned the deficit, nor currency.

But it's not about logic, and it never has been just as Brexit isn't either. It's about 'heart' and persuading the Scottish population it will all eventually be alright. We'll be told to hold our nerve and believe in Scotland. It's about playing the long game.

They couldn't swing that argument when the UK was a part of EU, but it's harder for union supporters to argue that the UK is this stable strong powerful ally outside the EU when everything is destabilised post-Brexit. Similarly, if rUK votes to leave and Scotland doesn't, and we're dragged out as well, it's harder for pro-unionists to argue the relationship is two-way and that the UK has Scottish interests at heart. I think a lot of people will feel they haven't much left to lose.

I was a No voter, but I have to say that I am struck during this debate how rUK people really don't seem to care about the potential devastation this potentially has for Scotland.

[cakeycakeface]

Sorry, my bolding went wrong.

[glenthebattleostrich]

And Santa won't deliver presents to anyone who votes leave.

[Redbindippers101]

Cakey:
Calling referendi is not devolved.
Another (once in a generation) referendum will require an act of Parliament passed by the HoC and HoL . If the legislature is caught up in all the stuff involved in leaving the EU, then Scottish independence will not be top of the agenda.
The Scottish people voted to remain part of the UK, the EU thing is a UK referendum.

[Redbindippers101]

Cakey:
Whats this "dragged out" bit? Scotland is not a homogeneous entity. There will be plenty of Scots quite happy to leave the EU. They won't feel dragged out at all. I think you may be confusing the rhetoric of Sturgeon with reality.
I'm sure that there are many SNP members who feel the same way. It's just a pity that they are not allowed to express their opinion.
Extreme right wing politics are on the rise within the EU (Hungary, Austria etc), the SNP fit in nicely with that lot.

[cakeycakeface]

Red, I possibly wasn't clear. What I meant when I said "If the majority of MSPs want another referendum and that is backed up by polls showing public opinion want it too, then it will be very difficult for Westminster to deny it. " If Westminster respects the authority of our devolved parliament, they would have to grant another referendum, especially if polls indicated the public wanted it too. If they didn't they'd strengthen the SNP immeasurably. In my opinion. Sturgeon et al are not sticking to the once in a generation line.

Don't for a second think I want this. But I am not deluding myself. It's inevitable.

[cakeycakeface]

And on the "dragged out" point. Again, I agree with you as far as logic. But that is not how it plays out here. The referendum didn't end and suddenly Scotland was of in agreement and behind a leader that respected what the referendum meant. We've been damaged by this. It's not over.

[Redbindippers101]

Cakey:
We'll see how it plays out.
Not too badly I hope, we're off to Scotland for a holiday later in the year and don't want to be lynched because of our accents!

[caroldecker]

Not sure where Gibraltar will go - Spain? they hate each other, independent?

[Corcory]

But Cakey I don't think the majority of the electorate do want another referendum, Why would they. The SNP sold it to us as a 'once in a lifetime' decision. Not one that could be taken again if they didn't win.
They lost before on much less spurious grounds what makes you think they could possibly win this time? It was a once in a lifetime vote that is what Westminster will say. we certainly don't all want another vote, heaven forbid.
I can't think that many people will go for the idea of independence just because the SNP didn't get their way and they want to leave the rest of the UK - their single biggest market and re-join the EU with potentially a really bad deal, who on earth's going to want to vote for that?

'They couldn't swing the argument when we were in the EU' what argument? The independence one? They did, we voted no.
Why do you think Brexit will be devastating for Scotland? What's so special about Scotland that the rest of Britain doesn't have? Why do you think the rest of Britain don't have Scotland's interests at heart? plenty of people in the rest of the UK seem to be pretty concerned that Brexit will trigger another indy referendum.
When I make a perfectly logical case you then tell me it's not about logic it's all about the heart!!! How is anyone supposed to put a case for their point of view then? I know I'll just say 'In my heart I know I'm right'! end of!

[caroldecker]

With the current oil price an independent Scotland is a basket case economically. They need to spend 20 years building a mixed economy before they go for independence again.

[BeakyMinder]

Prices have already gone up a bit as a result of us even contemplating Brexit. That's because the value of the pound has been falling - investors are already selling up. Wish I'd paid for my summer holiday up front now, cos my pound is worth less euros than it was last year. If we leave it'll get much worse.

Big employers are already saying they'll reduce work forces in the UK (in fact several of my friends have been told this by their employers). Lots of companies prefer to be in the EU so they'll go to Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt.

The stock exchange is down because markets are selling off shares in British companies.

Most people don't realise this because they understandably don't read the financial press!

[MangoMoon]

The tooth fairy has already said she'll stop collecting teeth if Leave wins.

[Devilishpyjamas]

Leaving is economic lunacy (even without the more extreme predictions) but doesn't seem to be putting people off voting Leave so I agree that Scotland may well try & do a hike if Brexit happens (whether or not the economics makes sense)..

If decisions were made on economic grounds then the Scottish referendum would have been a much clearer vote for staying in the UK & Brexit would be trailing by a large margin.

Unfortunately it appears tribalism is more important (both in Scotland & the rest of the UK) than economics.

[cakeycakeface]

Carol There was a short documentary recently showing how Gibraltar's economy was entirely financial sector based, and reliant on the current EU set up. In addition, the long historical blockade imposed by Spain was only lifted as a result of pressure from the EU because both Spain and UK are in the EU. Given the prospect of an exit, Spain would no longer have to comply with free movement and could once again close its borders. As you say, they hate each other. If Gibraltar finds itself with a destroyed economy and unresolvable issues with Spain, it may have no choice but to try reach some kind of arrangement with Spain, which could include leaving Britain. That was my understanding anyway. They are desperately worried.