How do you think the Greece situation will look......(7 Posts)
One year from now. ? Still a ruddy mess, or will a sensible deal have been done by Greece?
Have been done by Greece? You're blaming the Greeks, exclusively, for this crisis?
The Greek economy needs reform, but the debt is impossible for Greece to pay back in full, moreso after it has had its economy completely destroyed by austerity and IMF 'structural readjustment' programmes.
Austerity never has, and never will be a productive way of reducing debt during a recession or depression. This is anti-Keynesian, and has been shown time and time again to be counter-productive.
A year from now Greece will still be screwed they can't exactly magic some money up.
Hyper inflation and mass emigration most likely.
They needed reforms 5 years ago and the government didn't implement them.
Tax system and pensions still a mess. With more money going out than coming in, of course the money will run out.
Why should more money be pumped into a fundamentally flawed system if politicians are unwilling to make changes?
Greece has been let down by their governments, not the rest of the Eurozone.
I wouldn't hazard a guess what Greece will look like in a year's time, or even next week.
The Greeks are completely divided on the referendum issue, any outcome of this week's crisis meetings could lead to unrest. The referendum was a stupid idea, all it did was drive a wedge through the Greek population.
Greece will not
be able to implement the changes it needs to ensure a sustained recovery.
The crux of the issue is that the Greek people (on the whole) want a better standard of living than their GDP can fund.
They also (generalising again) don't want to pay the necessary taxes to get the economy back on its feet.
There's no easy way out of it for them, so they quite simply won't go through with the reforms; they just won't happen to the full extent that's needed. Some changes will be made but it will become painful so they will end up reneging on the terms of the latest bailout as they simply won't get to the point of a sustained surplus.
I heard someone on radio the other day liken it to being prescribed a course of antibiotics and then stopping taking them as soon as you feel a bit better. The problem just comes back.
They simply should not have joined the Euro, but of course they wanted the initial benefits that came from the monetary union.
I feel desperately sorry for the Greek people and I certainly don't blame them, as individuals, for the situation but facts are facts.
The problem now is that the EU politics are trumping what the Greeks actually need. Everyone is jockeying for their own electorate. Germany are the biggest decision maker here since they will be the biggest creditor. However, the Germans are tired of throwing good money after bad. Most of the other Eurozone countries are happy to hide behind Germany and let them be the bogeyman.
Some of the other nations like Latvia, Portugal & Spain took their medicine years ago so are reluctant to let Greece off since they simply didn't do enough. You can understand why really.
And then there's the UK. I really wonder why we bother. Here's the perfect time for us to be showing some leadership and building some goodwill. Let's act as a middleman. But no....we're too busy saying "Not our mess. You sort it". To the point where we're not even willing to lend a small amount for 4 months via the ESMF. No wonder the other EU countries are tired of us. We say they're our friends yet we do nothing to help and just get in the way.
A year from now Greece will still be in the shit. Their debts will last a generation if not more. This is what happens when you let successive governments spend far more than they bring in. That's why it's been so important for us to reign in spending. We don't want to be Greece! Not even a chance of it.
Their only hope is for another haircut on their debts. Everyone agrees that they need it and it's currently unsustainable. The only problem has been Syriza has burned up all the goodwill and trust by acting like a petulant teenager during negotiations. To the point where no-one trusts them anymore. Quite how they thought they could go into the negotiating room demanding both a large loan and debt forgiveness at the same time is beyond me. I think my bank manager would die from laughter if I tried the same tactic.
The only problem has been Syriza has burned up all the goodwill and trust by acting like a petulant teenager during negotiations. To the point where no-one trusts them anymore
Precisely, and as he previous poster said, they have been let down by pervious Greek gvts.
I have been in Spain this week and there is a lot of hostility to the Greeks and the share that Spain has to pay.
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