Is there a difference between these phrases?

[HoollyWugger]

" Schools are not expected to open ..." and "Schools are expected not to open..."

It's turning my brain to mush trying to explain a possible difference!

[Palavah]

The first suggests we don't think schools will open (reporting the likelihood).

The second could mean the same, but suggests we think schools should not open.

[Palavah]

There's something jarring though, isn't there, like a split infinitive?

[Redcrayons]

It is different, but the more I read the less I can explain.

[StealthPolarBear]

First is absence of expectation
Second is expectation of a negative event

[yossell]

Logically speaking:
If I toss a fair coin, I don't expect it to land heads. After all, it could equally well land tails: expecting it to land heads would be irrational.

But that doesn't mean that I thereby expect it NOT to land heads. After all, not landing heads would mean it landed tails, and I shouldn't expect it to land tails any more than I should expect it to land heads.

But, pragmatically speaking, I'll bet the ordinary user of these sentences isn't making these kinds of fine distinctions.

[StealthPolarBear]

Excellent example :)

[PegasusReturns]

First: the author is telling you that their or the general perception is that schools will not open.

Second: can be read as above or additionally the imposition of an expectation on the school, with the decision now resting with them.

[HoollyWugger]

Thank you so much!

[HoollyWugger]

Although I've read the word "expected" so many times now it's turned into a nonsense word

[PegasusReturns]

Although I've read the word "expected" so many times now it's turned into a nonsense word

When I read your OP I thought oh that’s straightforward. By the time I revisited it to check my understanding it had turned to nonsense

[MotherExtraordinaire]

Schools are not expected to open ..."
They don't have to and probably won't open.
"Schools are expected not to open..." schools won't open. Eg not permitted.