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How acurate is a 10 day weather forecast?

(13 Posts)
Aimsmum Thu 21-Jul-05 18:13:02

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fqueenzebra Thu 21-Jul-05 18:24:29

not very....
If the whole week is looking wet & thunderstormy then I doubt it will turn to glorious sunshine all week instead, but the thunderstorms may be infrequent and the rain light. One thing is I think the models are biased toward predicting more rather than less rain, so it's unlikely to be any worse than the predicted. Besides, are you really an outdoor person? Doesn't the rain give you an excuse to shelter in cafes drinking latte & eating chocolate croissants? I have this fuzzy feeling that 10 days forecasts are more accurate than 5 day ones, in very broad terms, but i really wouldn't let it spoil your holiday!!
-fqz (who has attended a few meteorology courses in her time)

Aimsmum Thu 21-Jul-05 18:37:20

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TinyGang Thu 21-Jul-05 18:43:51

A 10 day forecast? Blimey, they can't even get it right for next day most of the time. I reckon they look out of the window like the rest of us to see what the weather is doing!

Have a fabulous time Wow - a week in Paris! Lucky you

throckenholt Thu 21-Jul-05 19:14:43

10 day forecasts are useless in general. They basically predict persistence - ie if it is hot and sunny likely to stay that way, if cool then stay cool etc.

5 day forecasts are a bit better - but it pretty much depends on the type of weather - ie much easier to predict high pressure, hot and still weather for a few days (because highs persist for up to 10 days normally).

Better to find out what August weather in Paris is normally like. I would say probably hot, probably humid, maybe some rain, probably some thunderstorms (from experience of Paris in July, and knowing climate for that area). If it is thundery it tends to be in the afternoon and evening as a result of daytime heating. Also sometimes you get storms moving up from the south (just like we do). Storms can be quite spectacular on the continent (at least in Rhine area of GErmany/France).

Hope that helps.

Aimsmum Thu 21-Jul-05 19:34:10

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fqueenzebra Thu 21-Jul-05 20:04:34

pssst... throck knows what she's talking about, most of her PhD was about storms in the Atlantic (brings most of the rain to Europe) & she's married to a climate scientist and all that!

Aimsmum Thu 21-Jul-05 20:53:38

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bensmum3 Thu 21-Jul-05 21:58:55

Hi Aimsmum, We look at the forecasts a lot, for obvious reasons, and it depends which one you are looking at a lot of the time!
I'm sure it won't rain and be stormy the whole time, we will all wish for sunshine for you and dd,
Has the gameboy arrived yet?

Aimsmum Thu 21-Jul-05 22:04:57

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throckenholt Fri 22-Jul-05 10:38:11

I also lived in Strasbourg for one summer - and typical weather was hot humid, with thunderstorms later in the day.

You may well get rain, but it will be different from Scottish rain ! And it will generally be warmer.

Aimsmum Fri 22-Jul-05 10:56:50

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Kayleigh Fri 22-Jul-05 11:01:47

They can barely forecast 1 day ahead let alone 10. I wouldn't start worrying yet.

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