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IVF stats

(17 Posts)
geeup Fri 21-Apr-17 19:45:14

Does any have stats on the odds of getting pregnant on second IVF cycle vs first cycle? And ideally the stats of it working if I put in 2 embryos vs 1.
I found one site that said based on a 33% chance of getting pregnant each time, it was 33% first cycle, 33% x 66% i.e. 22%+33 so 55% second cycle. Something like that anyway hmm
Anyway, I just want to know my chances. If someone hasn't created this website they should because I feel like it'd get a lot of traffic...

broodynmoody Fri 21-Apr-17 22:06:40

I haven't seen anything I'm afraid but I honestly think it's down to luck. They can adjust medications and times from the previous rounds but I do genuinely think it's luck sad

geeup Fri 21-Apr-17 23:19:38

It's so tough putting so much hope in a game of luck isn't it.

EarlGreyT Sat 22-Apr-17 00:49:58

I was told it was roughly 1:3 for each of the first 3 cycles and after that the odds start diminishing. I.e. Odds for first and second cycles are the same.

Blueroses99 Sat 22-Apr-17 17:38:31

This is more recent:

JoJoSM2 Mon 24-Apr-17 23:41:20

It's all very individual and sends on your problems, the quality of the treatment and good luck...

geeup Tue 25-Apr-17 07:00:34

Thanks blueroses. Having a second embryo transferred seems to increase odds quite significantly.

lucieloos Tue 25-Apr-17 18:33:35

Having 2 embryos transferred only increases the chances of success by around 5%. For the greatest overall chances of success you are better off transferring them one at a time. If you are under 35 the chances of success with 1 embryo is around 40% and 45% for 2. Although that's if you have no other issues such as immunes etc.

So say you have 4 embryos to use altogether.

If you transfer 1 embryo at a time you get 4 attempts.
Round 1 - 40%
Round 2 - 64%
Round 3 - 78.4%
Round 4 - 87%

If you transfer 2 embryos at a time you only get 2 attempts and the chances of success overall is significantly less...
Round 1 - 45%
Round 2 - 69.8%

geeup Tue 25-Apr-17 19:22:12

Oh that's interesting lucie. Where did those numbers come from? I'm about to do cycle 2 (fresh) and am very close to turning 35. Would that affect your opinion?

lucieloos Tue 25-Apr-17 19:35:20

Well the initial 40 / 45% are from various doctors over the years and medical research. The rest of the figures I worked out myself using simple stats. I think you would fit into the stats given. They are just a guide as everybody is different but I found it quite comforting to see the chances increasing quite a bit with each attempt.

geeup Tue 25-Apr-17 21:32:28

Thank you. It does feel a bit positive to look at the numbers going up.

Nan0second Tue 25-Apr-17 21:37:14

Lucieloos is correct.
Each clinic has slightly different stats but most couples will get pregnant with 3 fresh (plus any frozen) cycles. Chances of taking home a baby are highest with single embryo transfer.

meadowlark3 Tue 25-Apr-17 23:58:28

This is quite interesting! I don't understand why the NHS will fund one cycle if a) the rates of pregnancy are so low in the first go , and b) if they are so much higher on the third. Lucieloo, are those figures for fresh and frozen, or is each round a fresh and frozen are included in the figure for that go?


Smidge001 Wed 26-Apr-17 00:13:13

It's not that the third attempt is more likely to succeed than the first. It's a cumulative %. So before starting at all, you have a 40% chance of it working in the first cycle, but a 78% chance of it working over the course of 3 cycles.

If it fails the 1st time you now have a 64-40= 24% chance of it working in the 2nd cycle. If it fails again you now have a 78-64=14% chance of it working the 3rd time. Statistically anyway, as 40+24+14=78.

However, pretty much every time is pot bloody luck. It's just that if you have repeat failures there's more chance that you actually have an undiagnosed problem, or lower quality embryos, it's just no one knew on the first attempt.

For the NHS each attempt costs, so from their perspective with a limited budget, it makes more sense to give more couples 1 attempt each, than to give fewer people 3 goes. Iyswim.

lucieloos Wed 26-Apr-17 08:02:24

Yes smidge is right these are cumulative figures so it doesn't mean that in round 2 it's more likely to work than round 1. It means that the overall chances of success after having had 4 transfers are 87% taking into account all 4 rounds. So out of 100 people who go through 4 ivf transfers 87 should get a bfp whereas 40 women out of 100 would get a bfp on their first attempt. It doesn't mean the chances of it working the first time are 40% and then the chances of it working the second time are then much higher at 64%.

Meadow, the figures are for the transfer of 1 or 2 embryos per round it doesn't matter if they are fresh or frozen embryos. Round 1 for instance wouldn't reflect a fresh which had failed and then a subsequent fet if that's what you mean. Each round is for 1 transfer only.

UppityHumpty Wed 26-Apr-17 15:19:46

The stats are for women under 35 and in some cases under 30. I don't think there are any conclusive studies for women over 35 but most clinics can give you some kind of live birth success rate.

BeePositive Wed 26-Apr-17 16:03:09

I'm sure everyone knows the following site is trusted source of success rates per fertility clinic, just search for fertility clinic you would like to know more about...

I must say though, I have found this thread very informative around the statistics calculations (way above my own head) but good to see it all worked and talked through. Thanks (clever) ladies!

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