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Not now! We need to concentrate on very important Brexit negotiations...

(19 Posts)
PeterHouseMD Tue 18-Apr-17 14:51:44

Now was not the time...

so said Theresa May just over a month ago when a Scottish referendum was mooted.

Now suddenly there all the time in the world to divert to a general election...

hmm

It doesn't sound good, does it?

Anon1234567890 Tue 18-Apr-17 15:55:12

A referendum on breaking up the UK right at the time we are negotiating Brexit would be stupidity.

A general election to strengthen TMs Brexit position during the period before negotiations get going properly is a good idea.

They are two different things!

PeterHouseMD Tue 18-Apr-17 16:25:22

Another of these rather odd anon users?

Following your logic, Brexit - which is breaking up the UK - is sheer stupidity!

prh47bridge Tue 18-Apr-17 17:02:14

Brexit is not directly breaking up the UK. It is negotiating a deal with the EU which will determine what the future looks like. Indyref2 is directly about breaking up the UK. In my view Scotland's voters have the right to know what it is they would be leaving before deciding.

Nyx Tue 18-Apr-17 20:19:30

Anon: "right at the time we are negotiating Brexit" - 'we'? 'We' are not negotiating Brexit. Scotland is having Brexit negotiated against its will and over its head. Indyref2 would be a referendum on getting out of this insanity that the UK has become. Independence would be a bonus.

prh47bridge Tue 18-Apr-17 20:45:51

The same could be said about various other parts of the UK - London, for instance. Since most of Scotland's trade is with rUK, leaving the UK to stay in the EU makes little economic sense.

Nyx Tue 18-Apr-17 22:41:23

Trade would still happen between Scotland and rUK. Nobody seriously suggests it wouldn't. Is all trade going to stop between the UK and the EU due to Brexit?

BigChocFrenzy Tue 18-Apr-17 22:47:56

Scotland could diversify, as the Irish Republic has done:

Just before the Uk and the RoI joined the then EEC, the UK took 60% of RoI exports.

Since then, the RoI has greatly increased exports to other countries and the Uk share was only about 12% last year
So, being within the EU enabled the RoI to rebalance its trade from being so dominated by the UK

prh47bridge Tue 18-Apr-17 23:41:11

Trade would still happen between Scotland and rUK. Nobody seriously suggests it wouldn't. Is all trade going to stop between the UK and the EU due to Brexit?

Of course trade would continue. However, if Scotland becomes independent it might face tariff barriers on goods exported to rUK. There would, of course, be tariff barriers the other way as well but Scotland takes a much lower proportion of rUK exports than rUK takes of Scottish exports. Whilst, yes, Scotland could (and probably should) diversify, that will take time. In the meantime trade with rUK would be important for the Scottish economy. Voters won't know the effect on trade with rUK until Brexit terms are known.

RortyCrankle Wed 19-Apr-17 09:09:56

I think Theresa May has decided to hold the GE to shut up those like Sturgeon who whine about her not having a mandate and being an unelected PM.

After she has won the GE, probably increasing her majority, it is effectively an extra mandate from the people and strengthens her position to forge ahead with Brexit. Makes sense to me.

As for another indyref, Sturgeon is fortunate that Theresa May has put it on the back burner until after we have left the EU - I really don't think she would get a Yes majority if one was held now.

Nyx Wed 19-Apr-17 09:34:55

Sturgeon has said that she doesn't want an indyref2 until the terms of Brexit are known. Sigh. Not 'now'. An indyref right away was never on the table. Surely that makes sense? Once the terms of Brexit are known, Scotland gets to choose which way they go?

PeterHouseMD Wed 19-Apr-17 12:40:56

Theresa May is going to the polls now rather than waiting until Brexit and now afraid to partake in a leader's debate.

Theresa May is now certain that Brexit is going to be a complete disaster and this is the only way she can deal with it.

If she was anyway optimistic she would have waited and also be happy to debate.

prh47bridge Wed 19-Apr-17 14:17:40

Interesting point of view.

Debates tend to favour the underdog. Brown only agreed to debates in 2010 because he was behind in the polls and hoped to turn it round. In the event the debates helped the LibDems. Cameron didn't want to debate in 2015 but prevaricated and ended up in a corner where he had no choice. May knows she has a huge lead in the polls, especially amongst those age groups most likely to vote. Expectations of Corbyn are so low that he only has to stay upright and string a few sentences together for people to say he has exceeded expectations and won the debate. May has nothing to gain from debates so I am not surprised she won't participate. That doesn't mean she is afraid, just that she is a sensible politician.

As for being certain Brexit will be a complete disaster, please give it a rest. I voted Remain but I accept that we lost and the UK is leaving. The predictions of immediate disaster made by the Remain campaign were clearly wrong. I am fed up with hearing predictions that it is all going to go badly wrong at some point in future. There is simply no way of knowing. But we do need the best deal possible. As things stood it was clear that some EU leaders thought an election in 2020 would allow them to back the government into a corner and force it to accept a bad deal. Some members of the House of Lords have also been making it clear that they intend to derail Brexit on the grounds that it wasn't in the Conservative manifesto which again was encouraging some EU leaders to push for a bad deal for the UK. And some in the EU were clearly hoping to string out negotiations until after the 2020 election in the hope that a new government would abort the process and keep the UK in the EU.

noblegiraffe Wed 19-Apr-17 14:24:02

How does a bigger majority strengthen Brexit negotiations? Do EU leaders compare their majorities when holding debates?

She's got a mandate in the form of a referendum vote, and she's the Prime Minister. Being unable to deal with any opposition at home paints her as rather a delicate snowflake.

RortyCrankle Wed 19-Apr-17 16:34:31

PeterHouseMD
Theresa May is going to the polls now rather than waiting until Brexit and now afraid to partake in a leader's debate.

I would be interested to see the link which proves that she is afraid to take part in a debate. Or has it, as I suspect, been dredged from your fertile imagination?

Theresa May has more balls than most of the men in Westminster. I have no doubt that she has zero interest in taking part in a BBC biased debate and why should she - just take a look at the other participants - I wouldn't waste my breath on any of them.

PeterHouseMD Wed 19-Apr-17 17:38:30

Rorty,

If Brexit looked like it was going to be a success, Theresa May would be more than happy to debate and put her arguments across. But she isn't, is she?

In fact, if Brexit looked like it was going to be a success, Theresa May would have waitied until after Brexit to call a general election as was her original plan. But this is no longer the situation.

Your rudeness above clearly indicates that this truth rankles.

Or, in your case, should that be crankles ? smile

RortyCrankle Wed 19-Apr-17 19:36:19

Brexit has barely begun and very little will be achieved until September after the French and German elections and summer recess.

She has no need to debate - she knows what she is doing, I trust her to do the right thing. What are you going to learn from her debating with Corbyn as he rambles on aimlessly about nothing? Sturgeon will go on and on and on about an indyref, Farron will bore the studio to tears rambling on and on about reversing Brexit. I suppose a debate with the Monster Raving Loony Party may be faintly interesting but not enough for her to bother.

I suspect she called the GE to shut up all the whining from Sturgeon etal about not being elected, not having a mandate etc. It has been going on since she became PM and her winning the GE with an increased majority will thankfully end that nonsense.

No link I notice.

And no I don't accept it as truth and it neither rankles nor crankles.

PeterHouseMD Thu 20-Apr-17 00:26:05

Ah, indeed, RortyCrankly, you must have the link and have it you will.

The Downing Street Press Office has kindly released the following statement for those who are deliberately obtuse in order to confirm once again that Theresa May will not be taking part in any TV debates ahead of the planned general election:

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/media/may-rules-out-tv-debate-because-her-voters-only-like-the-wireless-20170419126280

purplecabbage Thu 20-Apr-17 18:59:18

Yes I am frankly baffled by the timing of this; firstly the issue of undue haste - hardly enough time to air issues fully and look what the EU Referendum revealed to us about (false)ungrounded political promises.... Secondly it would seem to be a massive and untimely distraction from the key issues of preparing to comply with article 50. Now we shall all be in a tizzy - such a waste of time, premature and really illadvised imo.

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