So NS finally confirms a second referendum on Scottish independence will take place.(10 Posts)
Just saw on BBC news. NS has finally confirmed that she will seek a resolution from the Scottish Parliament to hold a second referendum assuming the PM triggers A50.
DH is Scottish although we don't live in Scotland. Friends living in Edinburgh say that very few people on either side have the stomach to face this again. I'd rather Scotland chose to remain part of the UK however, unlike last time I actually see the point considering the Scots voted to remain last year.
I think another thread was started in Scotsnet. I don't think there's any doubt that she will get the votes in the Scottish Parliament to hold the vote. I feel sorry for Scotland having to face this again but it may be their chance to say how they feel about A50.
The British government has to agree to it and they will insist on it being delayed until after Brexit happens.
The funny thing about all this is that if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014, they'd be out of the UK and the EU by now (by Alex Salmond's desired timetable to leave the UK in 2016). It's highly unlikely that the EU referendum would have happened especially as I imagine David Cameron would have resigned and the outcome of the 2015 election might have been different. So Scotland would be outside the EU and the rest of the UK would be in it, and Brexit would be off the agenda.
The irony is quite interesting. NS thinks we are going off a cliff edge with Brexit, yet she is now planing a vote between leaving 'the EU and the UK' and an unknown Brexit negotiation. The devil and the deep blue sea?
I think she's been bounced into it. Deliberate transient attitude of TM etc, to call NS bluff (TM knows that AS is desperate for independence within his career span, so NS is effectively between a rock and a hard place). This is on basis that NS will rush to another referendum which will fail (polls that show bump in support for independence don't factor in shy Tory effect, but Tories have info sources besides public polls).
A second failed referendum so quickly will derail SNP momentum significantly, in near and long term. RD will be deployed to maximum comic effect, Jimmy Krankie style, to maximize this.
It's a desperate howl from someone who is being deliberately ignored. Would have been better to wait until Brexit negotiations descend into chaos, and capitalize on that.
I know a few Scots who voted yes last time but will vote no now. However, I wonder how many would now vote for independence if if meant staying in the EU. Although my understanding is that Scotland would need to leave then apply to join and in doing so would need to pass the economic tests.
Voting Yes to stay in the EU would be counter productive, and/or a massive gamble. Scotland absolutely would have to apply for new membership as a new member state. The arguments for Scotland not gaining entry to the EU as a new member state would remain (i.e. Spain isn't going to change it's mind any time soon), so either way we'd be out of the EU for the foreseeable.
Given how pissed off a lot of the EU countries seemed with the UK with the Brexit stuff, it doesn't seem likely to me that they'd be sympathetic to the plight of the Scots. But stranger things have happened.
It'll be interesting to watch, but from my own standpoint in the hours since NS made her announcement, the divisive comments have already started in my local area and on the local paper's Facebook. I think rather than it being straight up Yes and No voters this time you'll have 4 main groups:
1) Yes (Independence above all else)
2) No (Union above all else)
3) No who previously voted Yes but voted Leave for Brexit and don't want to risk re-entry to the EU.
4) Yes who previously voted No but voted Remain and live in the hope that iScotland will get into the EU.
From talking to friends about it today, there'll also be quite a few people who will be weighing up whether feeling Scottish, British or European is the most important thing for them before deciding which way to vote.
I cannot see the sense of Scotland having a referendum pre end of Brexit negotiations. Surely they need to wait to see what the outcome is? If we stay in the single market with provisos on immigration surely that would be in scotlands best interest? If they come out pre Brexit they won't get into the eu as an independent country because they don't meet the financial requirements. It's simply impossible unless they cook the books like Greece. They will also lose the additional £1800 per person Scots get as part of the Uk taxation process. NSs SNP is doing a great job of neglecting once excellent school and NHS services. I would only decline further. And being out of the EU when the UK might have negotiated its way into the free market would mean Scotland couldn't trade with us without a deal be g struck, which would be more delay and mean they would pay tariffs into the U.K. until they negotiate a deal with us.
Of course if the UK negotiate us over the edge of the cliff and we end up out of everything, Scotland would still be in the same situation if they are independent.
If the UK get a good deal Scotland can still have independence after Brexit. Going for it now just adds to the Brexit negotiation difficulties and may end up getting a worse deal for the whole of the UK.
Why can't Scots see this?
A great many Scots see this it is one woman and her acolytes who cant.
cdtay in the Scottish parliament a few days ago one of the MPs (Labour I think) asked a direct question about the financial side and how would an independent Scotland be able to get into the EU with £xx debt? NS just launched into the usual rhetoric and completely dodged this basic question. The first and most important question the Scots should be asking themselves, but so few are.
I have some lovely Scottish friends and they are totally pro indyref2 as they were Indyref1. I just keep quiet because I know it will be the end of our friendship!
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