Another Confused about Brexit thread...sorry

[TheKnittingMidwife]

Please help me! Up until a couple of months ago I was sure that I was voting in. Then I was sure I was voting out. Now I have no bloody idea. Please can someone answer some questions for me - as impartially as possible (and yes, I realise that the answers may well be unknown..)

1: If we leave, what is the likely outcome for the NHS? Ditto if we stay?

2: While there will clearly be a period of financial downturn for a while if we leave, how long will this last and will we be able to be stronger afterwards given that it opens doors to trading around the world? Finances isn't my strong point, but it's obviously important.

3: If we stay, doesn't the fact that we have effectively lost our major bargaining power, our threat to leave, make us weaker within the EU and less able to talk down some of the more controlling measures?

4: Don't we have a fair amount of control over immigration anyway, even within the EU, (it seems to be the case that we have lower net immigration than a lot of other countries, Australia - the media's favourite - being one of them, and immigrants contribute more to our finances than they take in benefits anyway. Immigration is not something that is top of my personal decision making agenda, but seems to be the centre of a whole lot of right-wing scaremongering).

5: What will leave or stay mean for our children's generation, given that this vote is unlikely to happen again for a long long time?

6: What are the chances of the EU ending up as a superstate, as seems to be being talked about, and us being swallowed up as nothing within it?

I think what worries me most is that so many major players that I have always admired and respected are advocating staying in, and idiots that I have had no time for are Brexiteers. This has been partly what has swung me back to the fence again.

Any useful tips really appreciated, especially given that this has probably been done to death.

[lljkk]

my tuppence is...

1. NHS will just keep bumbling along in borderline crisis either way
   
   
2. No one can say how long the post-brexit shock will last. Partly depends what world economy does, too. I'd believe anywhere between 3 -15 yrs.
   
   
3. Will yeah, I'd agree with that. I think the counter argument is something to do with being flexible, nimble, faster decision making.
   
   
4. I can't see non-EU immigration rules getting looser. That idea is a joke. Low skill EU immigrants are the main group that might get sharply restricted.
   
   
5. Things will work out ok either way, within 8-20 yrs.
   
   
6. Why would France or Spain or Italy or Denmark or Netherlands (or...) allow that to happen to their countries?

[Somerville]

I've only made my mind up fairly recently, and I thought about questions to you.

1. A lot of the Tory right who would secretly like to privatise the NHS are Brexiters who in the event of a win for leave would probably be much more powerful within the cabinet/possibly even one of them PM. So short term the NHS could be damaged if he leave.
   

Long term it's such a big issue for floating voters that I think it will be insulated as far as possible from the financial downturn we experience after leaving.
If we stay it'll carry on like it is now.

1. Impossible to say how long it would last. Economic models are shite anyway. But I've never seen isolationism result in a stronger economy, in the short or long term. I suspect that would soon become clear and we'd have to join up with some other international block. Or stay so affiliated with the EU as trading partners that we had to follow all their bureaucracy anyway.
   

1. We will still retain our opt-out for many areas. And the above argument - we'll still need to toe the line with many EU directives if we want to trade with them (and we do!) - and we'll have no bargaining power at all from outside the EU.
   

1. Yes, I agree with you.
   

1. Leaving will be worse for our children in the short term, financially, but long-term the economy will sort itself out. However the long-term legacy for our children that does bother me is the potential break up of the UK. And in particular the situation for the north of Ireland.
   

1. Again, we still retain our opt-out for many areas. And many countries all across the EU are seeing a large anti-EU sentiment arise within their own borders. I really think this super-state thing is scare mongering.

[TheKnittingMidwife]

thank you for your reply. I sort of forgot my main point on 4, which was very much like yours - we have had the power to control a lot of our immigration rules for a while, but haven't done so much and actually there are a lot more positives to immigration than the right-wing lot have been making out recently. I try to ignore most of the immigration stuff, I have to be honest...

I think part of my issue is what you've said about number 5. We don't know what's going to happen, but either way it will probably be ok within quite narrow boundaries. It's like the feeling I get for general elections (well, up until Corbyn anyway), that actually it doesn't matter who wins, it's all same-same anyway mostly. I don't know the areas that are likely to be most affected; if I did, then I could make a decision based on that I guess.

[TheKnittingMidwife]

Somerville thank you. I don't feel that I'm far off in my thoughts then. No closer to a decision necessarily but at least I feel like I am making it with sensible reasoning!

[Somerville]

I had so many typos in that, sorry!

I thought about similar questions to you.

we leave, not he leave.

And re point 5 - to clarify, I'm worried about it causing a break up of the UK if we leave. And it inflaming the sectarian differences in the north of Ireland. That's probably my main reason to go and vote remain, tbh.

[Mistigri]

If we leave, what is the likely outcome for the NHS? Ditto if we stay?

Demand for NHS services may decline a little if we leave, but most of the NHS's problems are due to (a) lack of money - the UK spends proportionately less on healthcare than other developed nations and (b) an increasing population of elderly people with complex, often multiple diagnoses. Leaving won't affect either of these. On the other hand, leaving may make the recruitment crisis worse if it deters european doctors and nurses.

While there will clearly be a period of financial downturn for a while if we leave, how long will this last and will we be able to be stronger afterwards given that it opens doors to trading around the world?

It's already possible to trade with the whole world (except countries which are sanctioned). Brexit will decrease EU trade. Whether non-EU trade can fill the gap is unknown. Most likely the large companies who make up a big share of manufacturing exports will simply shift some of their UK plants to the EU.

If we stay, doesn't the fact that we have effectively lost our major bargaining power, our threat to leave, make us weaker within the EU and less able to talk down some of the more controlling measures?

Personally I think it will make little difference. The UK punches above it's weight in terms of EU influence and I would expect this to remain the case.

Don't we have a fair amount of control over immigration anyway, even within the EU

Yes, though not over EU immigration.

What will leave or stay mean for our children's generation, given that this vote is unlikely to happen again for a long long time?

Depends on the economic outcome, but in terms of the immediate impact it will shut the doors to studying and working in Europe for all but the rich. I'm very fortunate that my kids have dual nationality as they will both study at european universities.

What are the chances of the EU ending up as a superstate, as seems to be being talked about, and us being swallowed up as nothing within it?

Negligible in my lifetime (and becoming less likely, not more).

[TheKnittingMidwife]

That's really helpful Mistigri, thank you, especially on point 3 as well. I knew we had a decent level of power in the EU anyway, I just wasn't sure how much of this was to do with the fact that many of the other states didn't want us to leave and if we voted to stay we'd be relegated back to minnow with no trump card...if that makes sense. I guess not, then.

[Hockeydude]

Now I will give the definitive answer to all your questions OP:

Nobody knows.

Vote whatever you reckon and we'll have to deal with the consequences once we find them out!

[Mistigri]

I knew we had a decent level of power in the EU anyway, I just wasn't sure how much of this was to do with the fact that many of the other states didn't want us to leave

It's not a question of power but of influence. Britain has always had a disproportionate level of influence, as can been seen by the special dispensations we've benefited from over the years. Opt outs are not a new thing.

The British vision of the EU has always been different from that of nations that have been (usually for domestic political reasons) more in favour of a federal Europe, such as Belgium. The UK has always had a strong preference for an EU that is predominantly about trade, and it seems to have won this point, at least for the foreseeable future. The tipping point probably came with the accession of Eastern European countries (which the UK did much to facilitate), after which federalisation basically became a pipe dream. Outside brexit HQ I don't think serious politicians of any nationality believe in a federal Europe any more.

[namechangeparents]

1: If we leave, what is the likely outcome for the NHS? Ditto if we stay?

I don't think there will be an impact on the NHS either way. Except that if we leave there may be a greater burden because of elderly ex-pats returning who are less likely to be good health than younger European workers. However, this assumes that they will indeed return.

2: While there will clearly be a period of financial downturn for a while if we leave, how long will this last and will we be able to be stronger afterwards given that it opens doors to trading around the world? Finances isn't my strong point, but it's obviously important.

No idea - could be a long time. I'm not sure leaving the EU opens doors to trading round the world - 28 countries have more bargaining power than one.

3: If we stay, doesn't the fact that we have effectively lost our major bargaining power, our threat to leave, make us weaker within the EU and less able to talk down some of the more controlling measures?

I think if the result is very close eg only 51% of us vote to stay the EU HAS to listen to the fact that nearly half of the voting population were so concerned they voted to leave.

4: Don't we have a fair amount of control over immigration anyway, even within the EU, (it seems to be the case that we have lower net immigration than a lot of other countries, Australia - the media's favourite - being one of them, and immigrants contribute more to our finances than they take in benefits anyway. Immigration is not something that is top of my personal decision making agenda, but seems to be the centre of a whole lot of right-wing scaremongering).

I think the sea around us is our biggest protection against unwanted immigration.

5: What will leave or stay mean for our children's generation, given that this vote is unlikely to happen again for a long long time?

If we vote to leave they lose the chance to study/work/live in the EU - at least it won't be as easy - or a lot more expensive.

6: What are the chances of the EU ending up as a superstate, as seems to be being talked about, and us being swallowed up as nothing within it?

Precisely zero. Other members don't want this either.

[TheKnittingMidwife]

Hockeydude haha - yes, I thought that might be the case!

Mistigri and namechangeparents thank you for your comments. It's clarifying things a little for me.