Brexit and Scotland

[concertplayer]

If we leave do you think Scotland will leave the UK?

[AgentProvocateur]

If there's a big "stay" vote in Scotland and "exit" in the rUk, I think it will lead to another independence referendum. I'm not sure that the result would be terribly different from the last time if it's held too soon after the EU referendum.

[bananabrain35]

I doubt the SNP could resist, but they'd have to wait for the oil price to recover....

[CoolforKittyCats]

No I don't

[barbecue]

No

[claig]

No because of the economy and the oil price and the beginning of the end for the EU, so I think an independence vote will lose.

[0phelia]

No.

It's likely Scotland will vote majority Stay. Scotland have a better deal out of everything paid for by the British taxpayer. Lower rates of public service cuts due to austerity program, no university tuition fees, not the same problems with GP or school place availability, Scotland doesn't suffer immigration problems to a high degree, there is low multiculturalism, they have a totally different political and economical landscape to the English and the EU pours money into Scotland with it's small population so each resident benefits considerably.

A predicted outcome is England vote Leave by a slim majority, but Scotland's Stay vote pushes the referendum into Stay majority by a small margin. This would cause tensions and no one can predict how this will play out. Maybe England could vote Scotland out of the UK??

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

Ophelia - that's a really good point. All the news is about Scotland holding another Indyref if England (and Wales? NI?) vote leave; if Scotland is the only reason the UK remains should England vote to expel Scotland.,

[claig]

'if Scotland is the only reason the UK remains should England vote to expel Scotland.,'

It won't happen because the Establishment wants union with Scotland and the Establishment wants to stay in the EU, so the Establishment will be grateful if Scotland saves them by swinging the referendum to remain.

[parmalilac]

I'm English, living in Scotland, and am baffled as to why the SNP are so keen to be independent from the UK but are happy to be ruled by non-elected faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. No- one is talking about this, and it's a touchy subject to bring up.

[claig]

I am for getting out of the EU, but Scotland wants to be part of the EU for the same reason that Cameron and the English Establishment want to be part of it. They all want to sacrifice sovereignty for being part of the club.

[2rebecca]

Or perhaps they just feel people are people and which bit you are born in is an irrelevance?
I live in Scotland and my friends and colleagues are fairly evenly split yes no. I'm not convinced the remain campaign is as strong here as the SNP think.
I voted to stay in the UK because I think more unites us than separates us and I'll vote remain for the same reason.

[concertplayer]

Oh an English referendum on expelling Scotland is an interesting point!

[scarlets]

I am not much of a gambler but I would bet on England and Wales voting to leave, and Scotland and NI voting to remain, with the net result being a narrow Brexit win, triggering calls for a new Scottish indie referendum.

[Pangurban1]

I don't think Scotland would be on it's own if they vote to remain. In fact, there was a poll done recently on all 4 areas of the UK. Northern Ireland had the highest percentage of votes to remain. When they divided the vote according to the Nationalist or Unionist population, the Nationalist vote in the poll was 91% remain and the Unionist vote was more similar to Wales and England in the early 50%. Together, the vote in Northern Ireland was 75% to remain.

Scotland was next with a majority of 11% less at 64% to remain.

Of course, that was a poll.

[Babymamamama]

Good point concert player. I always wonder why that is so taboo whereas in Scotland it's fine to want to be shot of rest of uk.

[Pangurban1]

But of course, even if NI and Scotland had a large Remain majority, the huge difference in populations would mean a decent enough majority Leave vote in England and Wales would most likely swing the result to Leave.

[Mistigri]

I would bet on England and Wales voting to leave, and Scotland and NI voting to remain, with the net result being a narrow Brexit win, triggering calls for a new Scottish indie referendum.

I'm curious as to why the implications for Scotland have been widely considered whereas Northern Ireland has been almost entirely neglected, even though it is the country with the most to lose, both for political and geographical reasons.

Brexit has implications for the peace agreement - unless free movement is retailed, then a physical border will need to be reestablished and this has enormous political significance. And it would leave NI curiously isolated - separated by a wall from the country with which it shares both a physical space (the island that is Ireland) and parts of its cultural heritage - and by the Irish sea from the rest of the state to which it is politically bound.

Economically, Ireland is also much more dependent on the EU than other parts of the UK because of the integration of the southern and northern Irish economies and because of its reliance on European agricultural subsidies.

[Mistigri]

"Retailed" in the third para above should obviously read "retained"!

[mathsmum314]

I am voting for Brexit, hoping that we win and Scotland then votes to leave the UK. I just think there is something morally wrong about taking 19% more money than a person in England gets, whilst screaming its not enough without a word of thanks.

[claig]

"The SNP Government is not planning a second referendum on Scottish independence in the event of Brexit because “they don’t think they can win”, one of the country’s leading business figures claimed yesterday.

David Watt, head of the Institute of Directors in Scotland, told industry leaders yesterday that a number of “senior” figures have indicated that a quickfire second referendum is not on the cards at the moment."

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-not-planning-2nd-indyref-after-brexit-1-4147484

If we vote to leave, I think the EU will collapse, and there won't be an independence referendum in the future because Scotland will not be able to be part of a bigger EU grouping, as that grouping will collapse.

[Pangurban1]

Don't know about that. A WTO chappie has issued a statement. Every one seems to be saying the WTO rules fallback is a no brainer and is almost there instantly to help a non-EU UK to do all sorts of trading easily. It seems it may not be that simple.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2655897-WTO-Brexit-could-cost-the-UK-5-6-billion-pounds-a-year-in-extra-duties

Scotland may decide this ship is sinking faster than the EU if things don't look like they are working out as well as people are saying.