Thanks everyone. This is extremely helpful, as we have no prior experience.
mdh, I’m hoping his school might give a steer. That’s a good point about if there’s someone else from the same school applying for the same subject, it would make sense to go for different colleges.
Errol and exexpat - Thankyou for those links. We had been looking at the admission statistics for this subject by college. They give the applications versus offers per college and per subject for the last four years. I’m not sure what to think as some colleges will get 30 applications, but then take maybe 5 or 6, while other colleges will only get maybe 8 applications or less, but only take 2 - or none at all! So it’s similar proportions, just greater or lesser numbers. You can see some colleges use the pool much more than others too.
The other point is that four colleges, Kings, Christ’s, Trinity and Trinity Hall all ask for an essay/s prior to interview, while others don’t. In DS’ case, he will have a relevant EPQ, so thought he may as well use it! But then we saw Christ’s and Trinity tend to be top of this Norrington table, so thought maybe not Trinity Hall want 2 essays, which I guess is doable, but also an extra hassle. So Kings looked a reasonable choice, but then only 10-15% of their places go to international or independent school candidates, so we weren’t sure.
What a palaver basically.
Interestingly, even though Trinity is one of the most over-subscribed in terms of total applicants, the numbers for his course don’t look too bad - maybe 10 for 2 or 3 places? Trinity Hall is similar. It does vary year to year though, so I’m not sure you can read too much into the stats.
He’s applying for a humanities subject and the standard offer is AAA which at least is slightly lower than what they’re asking for sciences, engineering etc. He’s predicted three A and he got 10 9s at GCSE, but we’re very aware that all applicants will be the same. I would say DS is very realistic. He’s in a school where he’s very average, so he’s under no delusions! But I guess if you don’t have a go, you never know. He’s very keen on LSE too, but not sure if this is any less competitive. Even Exeter, Durham etc are asking the same grades as Cambridge. He might try KCL as a safer option because they ask AAB. He went on an app called “Unifrog” which gives three tiers of options for all subjects and this came up.
Mumoftwo - thanks for that point about application ratios. You can actually see in the stats that although only 15% of Kings applicants are from independent schools, the same ratio are made offers, so it’s not that they’re being squeezed out as such, just less apply for whatever reason. No idea why? Maybe it will make more sense when we visit....?
Thanks again to everyone.