How important are predicted grades?

[Antaresisastar]

Ds is taking all 4 subjects to A2, (despite advice to the contrary) he does Maths, Economics, Spanish and Drama. He got AAAB at AS, the B was in maths, it was unexpectedly low and he will retake at least one module next year, he believes he can get an A for maths overall.
He wants to study Economics at university.
His school have given predicted grades A*,A, A, B, with the B in maths.They will not consider retakes in their predictions.
The courses/unis ds really wants (Exeter/Bath) want A*AA, with an A in maths.
Can anyone let me know if these universities will reject him on his predicted grades or is it still worth applying, how much attention do they pay to school/tutor references, which will be good, and will presumably include the fact that he intends to resit some maths modules. I am worried that the B maths prediction will scupper his chances.

[secretsquirrels]

There is a thread about predictions. A teacher has to use the evidence they have to make a prediction. A student could be led to apply for courses doomed to failure if predictions were based on hope rather than evidence.

They pay attention to achieved grades at AS as well as predicted grades. Economics is a very competitive subject and Exeter and Bath will have a lot of applications from students who not only have an A in Maths but also very high UMS.
So even if the school were to predict an A for him they will still have the information about his AS grades.

[stonecircle]

Antaresisaster - are you sure they want an A in A level maths to study Economics? I just had a quick look at Exeter and it looks to me like they want A*AA for Economics with an A at GCSE maths.

[Antaresisastar]

Thanks both, you are quite right about Exeter stone circle, I don't know where I got that from. Think we will just have to wait and see what happens