Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

[AuldAlliance]

PMK with lockdown kitty.

[boatyardblues]

Thanks Red.

[pointythings]

RTB do you have a source for that? I want to be able to substantiate my need to gloat.

[prettybird]

Cats still hogging my afghan blanket

[yoloPenguinsEatfish]

Evening all, and thank you RTB for new fred.

I put this on another thread about DD1 returning from lockdown France this evening:

She says that in France you have to have a piece of paper explaining why you are out of the house for more than 10 mins - and a diff paper for every time you are out. Drones are inspecting the streets. Bars/restaurants closed on Sat at midnight, some of the restaurants up the mountains stayed open to serve the few remaining skiers and the gendarmes were in like Flynn, literally ordering diners out of their seats etc. She cannot believe the laxness and slowness of the UK response.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Thank you as ever Red.

I didn't believe the idiocy of Brexit. Part of me doesn't believe this either- such a crisis immediately after one of our own making. It's like we have stepped into a dystopian science fiction futuristic film that I wouldn't want to watch.

The support of community both real life and this one is at least a glimmer of something better.

[OhLookHeKickedTheBall]

Thanks red

[borntobequiet]

Thanks once again. It’s hard to believe that this just keeps getting worse...

[BigChocFrenzy]

Thanks, red 💐

I've not seen breakdown of deaths in Irelnd yet, but interesting age distribution of cases :
[[https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE
Next Irish General Election]]n@NextIrishGE*

Age breakdown of COVID-19 Cases in Ireland.

Years (%)
0-4: 0%
5-14: 1%
15-24: 10%
25-34: 18%
35-44: 23%
45-54: 15%
55-64: 17%
65+: 15%

Transmission Clarification:

Travel Related: 41.7%
Community Transmission: 22.1%
Contact with a Confirmed Case: 16.6%
Under Investigation: 19.6

[BigChocFrenzy]

ând of course that so many of their cases are still travel-related

[HoneysuckIejasmine]

Pmk. I miss quieter times.

[BigChocFrenzy]

I've no cat to display,
but I found this feline explanation of flattening out the peak to be within what health services can cope with:

[ICouldHaveBeenAContender]

Thanks RTB and all regulars. So many excellent links from this community, usually ahead of the MSM. I especially value the first-hand experiences shared from across Europe and beyond.

Here's a round-up from my friends and family.

DD's friend works for a medical supplies company. They are having to ration supplies to clients.

A couple of her friends were on holiday on one of the Canaries, expected to have to self-isolate/quarantine on return to the UK. Both are hospital workers.

A hospital consultant who says they have not yet received any PPE.

DS and his girlfriend are freelance musicians. All gigs cancelled.

Photocopier technician told to buy handgel and reclaim on expenses. No PPE issued either.

DH and I currently WFH. Not imposed, but heavily nudged. DH is actually a contractor, and if the lockdown continues for a while his project is likely to be cancelled.

DH is arranging a funeral. Multiple changes of plan to accommodate ever-changing official advice and guidelines from church and undertaker.

Stay safe, everyone.

[DGRossetti]

.

[WifeofDarth]

pmk

[AuldAlliance]

squid
Tonight at 8pm, lots of us in France went to our windows and balconies to cheer and applaud the medical and emergency staff whom we can't see but know are working tirelessly.
I thought of you.

[RedToothBrush]

do you have a source for that? I want to be able to substantiate my need to gloat.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
EXC: As this week's #Brexit talks formally canned, understand now top-level acceptance that UK WILL seek extension - just question of timing& choroeography. Details here 1/thread

This marks shift of top-level thinking even from weekend when 'big five' in No 10 REALLY REALLY didn't want to seek extension - and officially that remains position per statement tonight. BUT... /2

Reality is already biting.

- two Director-Generals (that's a rank below perm-sec) on #Brexit negs have already shifted to #coronavirus duties

- Cab Cmme on both EU and US trade talks have been canned. "expectation" is that UK/US talks won't proceed/open even by vidlink. /3

None of this is really surprising; but important to get choreography correct so it is not adversarial or point-scoring.

Understand one idea is to share FTA drafts; acknowledge deep gaps and rising Coronavirus reality and mutally agree to extend. /4

Official line remains: “Both sides remain fully committed to the negotiations and we remain in regular contact with the European Commission to consider alternative ways to continue discussions...The transition period ends on 31 December 2020. This is enshrined in UK law.” But../5

Truth is that both sides have struggled to get drafts prepared even for these now-cancelled talks.

EU dips met on Friday in person for last time, now all being done by email. Coronavirus killing bandwidth for both sides. /6

I don't honestly see the political difficulties here - very soon (if not already) CONTINUING that talks will be much politically toxic than CANCELLING them.

No requirement for grandstanding. The world where EU was urging UK extension, and UK was refusing was another world /7

There will also, presumably - tho no-one seems to have deets yet they can share - will need to be a money negotiation since #Brexit financial settlment of £39bn only covers to end of 2020. /8

Have asked around and presumption is that some non-contentious formula can be found - can't see either side wanting to cut up rough.

Just make it a fait accomple - and a 'flextension' that can fall away when deal is done depending on #coronavirus timelines /9

Thinking in No 10 has always been about the need to "shock" business into action/change.

But after 2020 and the coming Corona cashflow crunch, you'd be shocking a half-dead patient. Might finish everyone off. /10

Where does this leave #Brexit? Well that's really as open-ended question as to where #coronavirus is going to leave the global economy, the EU and the UK as well. None of us know, simply put - all is up in the air. /11

Even before this the UK had incipient productivity crisis - and was facing three huge strucutral adjustments (Brexit, Immigration overhaul and Net zero) - but now has global supply/demand-side shocks and no clarity when it ends. Still a big range of outcomes here. /12

In any event, until we have clearer horizons on #Coronavirus then the #Brexit talks will have to go on hold. A question of when, not if. 13/ENDS

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/17/uk-prepares-seek-eu-trade-talks-extension-coronavirus-crisis/
UK 'prepares to seek Brexit transition extension' as coronavirus crisis grows
EU sources said hopes of conducting full negotiation round via videolink had been crushed by Covid-19 outbreak

[Mistigri]

Pmk

We are locked down in France. DD in Paris, the rest of us in a small town in the SW. It feels quite weird - no traffic, almost no one on the streets. However lots of neighbour interaction going on! Funnily enough the old couple at the back are finding lockdown harder than us (middle aged couple with teenage son) or the other neighbours (young couple with 4 kids under 8). The old folk who don't socialise online are bored already lol.

My work is carrying on as normal for the time being - although for how long I don't know.

[Mistigri]

Who's watching sterling? It's having a absolute shocker of a week.

Markets worried about the U.K., as am I...

[BigChocFrenzy]

Misti I've been watching
Down about 10% vs Euro in the last 3 weeks ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We said here as soon as the horror of the crisi became apparent, that an extension should be a no-brainer

No other leaders give a shit about Brexit atm
and certainly none would waste time discussing terms or draft agreements

[RedToothBrush]

Bcf we say a lot of things on mn before they happen. And often get panned for it. I think I may rename myself cassandra tbh.

[KenDodd]

Why is the £ doing so badly?
All countries are in the shit so why is the pound sinking?

[Mistigri]

Ken

• govt not taking CV seriously
• govt not delaying Brexit (though they will eventually but markets hate uncertainty)
• interest rate cut

In that order.

[Mistigri]

In (relatively) good news, FR authorities think we are only 5-7 days from the peak in daily cases, but things will still get a lot worse before they get better.