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Won't the Republic of Ireland be utterly fucked by a No Deal Brexit and the EU needs to protect its member state?

(96 Posts)
thedaisychain Wed 21-Aug-19 20:29:57

It's just occurred to me... the Republic of Ireland will be so fucked from a No Deal brexit because the overwhelming vast majority of its trade is with Northern Ireland.

That's not to say Northern Ireland won't be fucked too, but much less so because it can still trade domestically with the rest of the UK. But the Republic?? Geography dictates that it will be pretty fucked. It will have no land or sea border with the EU. Why would Germany all of a sudden import beef from the Republic than France (as an example!! No idea if Germany has a need to import meat.)

So... given the Republic is a member state of the EU, and isn't it the duty of the EU to fight tooth and nail for member states, why aren't they just agreeing to a free trade deal (thus requiring no border on the island of Ireland).

Am I missing something? What am I missing here?

ImNotHappyaboutitPauline Wed 21-Aug-19 20:34:49

Quite a lot dear, quite a lot hmm...

lljkk Wed 21-Aug-19 20:36:12

EU's 1st choice is a free trade deal arranged during transition period.
EU offered a special customs deal to NI in case a free trade deal can't be arranged.
Uk keeps rejecting the special customs deal.
Even though majority of NI residents want the special customs deal (ie the Irish protocol, "backstop")
EU doesn't trust UK to agree to a free trade deal before transition period is up.
UK does seem rather incapable of deciding what UK wants.
So you can see why EU is being the grown-up it the room insisting on a definite plan for keeping GFA strong. UK can't organise self out of paper bag right now.

thedaisychain Wed 21-Aug-19 20:37:34

@ImNotHappyaboutitPauline why the hmm?
Go ahead and explain it to me then! All of it. I'm not being aggressive, I'm trying to seek answers, dear.

BlackAmericanoNoSugar Wed 21-Aug-19 20:39:13

I imagine it's cheaper and easier for the EU to just help Ireland out when needed, if it needs it.

Cillmantain Wed 21-Aug-19 20:39:21

Are you for real .
You obviously dont get what a no deal Brexit means

31RueCambon Wed 21-Aug-19 20:39:26

Google david mcwilliams articles on brexit.
We might be that fucked. Something like 12% of our trade with uk but a higher % of the uk's trade still with ireland.
The perception is we need the uk more than the uk needs us but that is not a fact.

Passthecherrycoke Wed 21-Aug-19 20:41:06

@ImNotHappyaboutitPauline no need to be so patronising.

OP is right. She’s not talking about the rights and wrongs of the EU negotiation or denying that the EU are being the helpful nature side here. But the fact remains, in a no deal Brexit, Ireland does a huge amount of trade with the U.K. it will be terrible for them as well as us

PennyB40 Wed 21-Aug-19 20:45:40

Could you honestly look at the current bunch in Westminster and trust them to prioritise peace in Northern Ireland. Some of the senior ministers haven’t even read the GFA.
They won’t give a shit until the Troubles come to England. Thankfully, the EU is standing firm on measures that will protect the GFA.

SouthChinaSea234 Wed 21-Aug-19 20:46:03

fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/

PaddyF0dder Wed 21-Aug-19 20:47:19

Gosh, you’re missing quite a lot.

So, this JUST occurred to you? Like, today? Not at any point since the Brexit vote, or any point before it? Despite the fact that the ireland situation is basically the main reason why Brexit is a load of nonsense?

So let’s have a think about what you’re missing:
- good Friday agreement
- unionist politics
- freedom of movement
- vagaries of customs union etc

That’s just the start.

thedaisychain Wed 21-Aug-19 20:48:15

@Cillmantain yes I'm for real.

I'm not saying the UK won't be fucked from a No Deal Brexit, what I'm asking is why the EU aren't fighting for its member state (Northern Ireland) not to be totally and utterly fucked, given, like I say again, it has a small economy and no land or sea border with any EU country.

So is the EU putting the right of some member states over others?

ILikTheBred Wed 21-Aug-19 20:49:34

...the overwhelming vast majority of its trade is with Northern Ireland.

Ireland exported less than €2bn of goods to Northern Ireland in 2017 (last year I could find full statistics for). Exports to all of the UK (including Northern Ireland) were €16bn - just 13% of Ireland’s total exports for the year, and provided only 22% of our imports. So you’re quite a bit out. The USA is it’s largest trading partner.

TeaKettleBell Wed 21-Aug-19 20:54:24

Quote:
I'm not saying the UK won't be fucked from a No Deal Brexit, what I'm asking is why the EU aren't fighting for its member state (Northern Ireland) not to be totally and utterly fucked
Unquote

Uhm NI is not an independent EU state. It’s part of the UK and voted to remain. We are totally fucked by No Deal Brexit.

ImNotHappyaboutitPauline Wed 21-Aug-19 20:55:00

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

WeShouldOpenABar Wed 21-Aug-19 20:57:35

We've been preparing for brexit for years now in roi, I keep getting the impression the UK have just noticed its a real thing that's actually happening

GhostofFrankGrimes Wed 21-Aug-19 20:57:51

Daisychain

NI will cease to be a member state, as it is being dragged out (along with Scotland) by England. Ireland gave up its constitutional claim to NI.The EU has been very clear from the get go - the GFA must be protected. It is the British who are refusing to acknowledge this fact, No deal and the GFA are incompatible.

GhostofFrankGrimes Wed 21-Aug-19 20:59:33

The average Brits knowledge of Irish history is er, lacking. Might expain the curosity now.

SilverViking Wed 21-Aug-19 20:59:35

@thedaisychain

Where have you been living for the last 4 years?

I think i want to go and live there in total isolation for the next 4 yearsgrin

This was a huge issue before the referendum, and even more so afterwards every week / month .
It was dismissed as part of "project fear" and later as a non issue since there are so many solutions - that it is just too difficult to name one!

I'm not sure if you are trolling, but this kinda sums up the exasperation of people on this side of the Irish Sea ... that so many people and many government ministers couldn't/can't/won't see the problem, yet are prepared to throw Northern Ireland under the bus (just before the rest of the citizens of the UK)... while blaming Ireland and the EU for totally unreasonable behaviour.

Please google and do a small bit of research on the issue and Irish/British history. Hopefully you will enjoy the education.... you will certainly have many questions as it is a complicated history with many valid but different perspectives... but at least you will them have worthwhile views and questions shock

nuttynutjob Wed 21-Aug-19 21:01:03

UK: Give me what I want or the little kid gets it.

Republic of Ireland will get the help from the 27 countries.

It's Northern Ireland that will truly be fucked in a No Deal Brexit.

usuallydormant Wed 21-Aug-19 21:02:04

Yes, the EU are working hard to protect a member state and preserve peace on the island. That's why the backstop is so important as an insurance policy any why the EU are sticking to it. No backstop is the same as hard Brexit for Ireland. And the Republic of Ireland exports more to Belgium than the UK by the way....

I can't believe these questions are only occurring to UK people now, three years down the line. Wake up.

slipperywhensparticus Wed 21-Aug-19 21:03:04

Oy I'm English! We didn't all vote for this shit show ya know!

And Op where have you been living? Westminster?

thedaisychain Wed 21-Aug-19 21:03:19

I don't know why everyone is so aggressive here. Calm down and just try to answer my question politely.

For the record, I'm an EU citizen (Czech if you're dying to know!) living in London, not some crazed extremist Brexiteer. I'm asking questions and all I get back is hmm'a and 'errs'.

lljkk Wed 21-Aug-19 21:03:22

(so we are transported back to 2017 now)
Even if EU dropped backstop & proceeded straight to free trade negotiations tomorrow... UK cannot make up its mind. UK is in no fit place to undertake those negotiations successfully or complete them by end of 2020 or even by end 2022.

EU will not give non-member state as good a trade deal as member states get. This reality seems to baffle Brexiters even though it was always obviously a thick red line for EU.

Even if EU dropped backstop & proceeded straight to free trade negotiations tomorrow... UK would tantrum and waste time for yrs whining "But why can't we have the same deal we always had before, why not, why why why....?!!"

thedaisychain Wed 21-Aug-19 21:03:58

@TeaKettleBell sorry, I meant the Republic of Ireland!

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