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What would need to happen for you to quantify Brexit as a success and in what timescale ?

(68 Posts)
frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 08:24:40

I have said that I would apologise if Brexit is marvellous. Expectations have now been managed to such a low bar and the timescale has been extended into the next century by some leavers. Will I get the opportunity to apologise in the next 30 years ?

Pineapplefish Thu 08-Aug-19 08:25:45

I could live with Brexit if we leave with a deal and avoid no deal.

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 08:26:25

Apologise about being wrong about Brexit specifically , I am the sort who apologizes to people who bump into me in the street wink

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 08:36:46

So could I Pineapple , but would that be Brexity enough to count as a proper Brexit ?

namechange34 Thu 08-Aug-19 08:39:24

Oh dear you're pretty much the only regular poster here who consistently believed Brexit wouldn't happen and now you seem resigned to it.

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 08:41:49

Timescale and success could be linked depending on what voters consider to be a brexit success.

If economic gain is the key factor, even JRM has estimated that UK will not feel the full benefits from leaving the EU until about 50 years later.

If telling the EU to go away is the key factor then Brexit is a success on the day UK leaves the EU.

If nationalism is the key factor then not only must UK have left the EU, but also Scotland, Wales and NI must have left the UK.

If racism if the key factor then not only must Scotland, Wales and NI have left the EU, but anyone who has dark skin must have been deported from England.

TheElementsSong Thu 08-Aug-19 08:45:59

I believe the measure of success is "not as bad as a moving target of mass starvation/Mad Max/Black Death/nuclear holocaust/sky falling in/heat death of Universe" Therefore, Brexit is already a success and can never not be a success.

Ta-dah! grin

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 08:46:30

namechange34 nope still don't think it is going to happen, but on the off chance that it does and it is a rip roaring success for the whole country as previously promised then my apology will be sincere and profuse smile

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 08:57:56

If telling the EU to go away is the key factor then Brexit is a success on the day UK leaves the EU.

And then we try to do a deal with them ?

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 09:20:49

And then we try to do a deal with them

Plan was a free trade deal

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 09:23:30

Elements grin

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 09:24:27

And that free trade deal will be better than we currently have ?

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 09:25:58

Not just about trade with EU, but can deal directly with other Countries too. At present individual members are not allowed to do that. All must pass through the EU

BiggerBoat1 Thu 08-Aug-19 09:26:57

Brexit can never be a success. It is a massive backward step and it will take us years to recover. It should never have been put to a referendum.

FinallyHere Thu 08-Aug-19 09:29:59

@Pineapplefish

I agree a deal would in the short term avoid the widespread disruption that comes with no deal. Longer term, we would notice that we no longer have a voice at the table so that in future there would be none of the tweaks that have been negotiated (such as the rebate and not using the Euro ) to our benefit.

Long term, revoking and staying in gives us all the benefits ... including the anti-tax avoidance measures (which mean that corporations and the very wealthy have to pay tax)

Only people who want to turn us into slow tax haven (which will mean low or no benefits) will win from exiting the EU.

ThinkAboutItTomorrow Thu 08-Aug-19 09:31:16

I'd measure it by the claims in the referendum. They were many and varied. They need to be based on the benefit of leaving the EU - either free from rules or the payment we made. So not as a result of crippling borrowing.

So it's a success when setting our own rules and deals outside the EU enables the UK to:
- Flourish economically
- have an overall improvement in the standard of living, not just headline growth that is skewed to the rich
- reduce net migration (think this needs to be overall not just EU given India is suggesting we'll need to be more open to immigration to get a trade deal with them). The leave campaign wasn't too overt about this but UKIPs posters of lines of Syrian refugees and all the nonsense about Turkey joining the EU imminently made it seem like immigration reduction was a big deal.
- invest more in national services ie the nhs windfall
- sovereignty over fishing rights, our determination of rules and regulations etc. So any trade deal mustn't fence us in to reciprocal policies with the EU

Somehow I don't see myself ever needing to apologise to a leave voter.

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 09:31:52

Are the deals we currently have with other countries as a member of the EU ( deals that I imagine the UK has been instrumental in securing )not good enough ?
How will we be able to measure if the new deals are better for the UK as a whole ?

FinallyHere Thu 08-Aug-19 09:37:07

@PortLouis1996

I would love to know one free trade deal that would be so advantageous for us, that can only be negotiated directly rather than as part of the EU.

Sure we could ditch the food standards laws and (maybe) trade with the USA, accepting their bleached chicken and hormone filled beef. In the USA, chicken eggs have to be washed before being distributed (in cool conditions to make up for the washing) because the chickens are kept in conditions that mean the unwashed eggs are a danger to health.

I would much prefer to keep to the EU's higher animal welfare standards

Would genuinely be interest to know what deals we would want to make outside the EU, that make up for leaving access to their market.

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 09:40:42

Are the deals we currently have with other countries as a member of the EU ( deals that I imagine the UK has been instrumental in securing )not good enough

The main argument appears to be that being in the EU denies access to cheaper alternatives from elsewhere as EU protects its markets by preventing such goods from passing across their borders.

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 09:47:02

The main argument appears to be that being in the EU denies access to cheaper alternatives from elsewhere as EU protects its markets by preventing such goods from passing across their borders.

This would offer a level of protection to UK businesses too , yes ? The consumer can already access cheaper alternatives to many products already, should they wish to do so.

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 10:03:40

Would genuinely be interest to know what deals we would want to make outside the EU, that make up for leaving access to their market

EU is a member of WTO. So UK leaving the EU without a deal does not prevent UK from trading with the EU on WTO rules.

At present EU is the UK's largest export market (44%), but overall the UK imports more from the EU (53%) than the EU buys from the UK. So trade with the EU at present results in a deficit for the UK.

Maybe also worth noting that EU is around 15% of all World Trade. EU is 28 Countries out of 195 (14.4%). If EU is 14.4% of the total World's Countries and at same time is 15% of World Trade where is the advantage of being in such a bloc? Surely if; Germany, UK and France are the 4th, 5th and 6th economies of the World then EU's share of Trade should surely be more than 15% of World Total taking into account EU is 14.4% of the World's total countries?

Dilution is the explanation. Of the 28 Countries that make up the EU there are 10 that pay into the pot and the other 18 take from the pot.

Had EU membership not been expanded so rapidly and members were on a more equal footing it may have worked out?

BlackeyedGruesome Thu 08-Aug-19 10:11:08

Nobody dies, no body goes without medication, there are no shortages or price rises after the first month, I and my children are better off financially.

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 10:15:03

What about all the trade deals we currently have with other countries as a member of the EU , what % of UK imports/exports do they account for ? What happens to those deals if we leave with no deal ? How is our negotiating ability improved by going it alone, when most of the world is also in trading blocs ?

PortLouis1996 Thu 08-Aug-19 10:51:16

*What about all the trade deals we currently have with other countries as a member of the EU , what % of UK imports/exports do they account for ?

UK's largest surplus trade partners in order are;

Switzerland
USA
UAE
Ireland
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Australia
South Korea
Egypt
Mexico
Greece
Hong Kong

Of the above only 2 are from EU.

UK's largest deficit trade partners in order are:

Germany
China
Netherlands
Norway
Belgium
Italy
France
Canada
Spain
Poland

All but 2 are full EU members. The other 2, Norway and Canada have EU ties

Not too surprising that EU does not want UK to leave EU if UK spends more in the EU than EU spends in the UK?

What happens to those deals if we leave with no deal ?*

UK would revert to WTO until they make trade deals of their own

How is our negotiating ability improved by going it alone, when most of the world is also in trading blocs

UK individually is 5th largest economy of the World. Would have though that made them an attractive target for other Countries who are lower down than 5th in the World?

frumpety Thu 08-Aug-19 11:05:06

So how come if the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world have so many people been left disenfranchised / left behind/ struggled with infrastructure issues ? We have achieved that status whilst benefitting from being a member of the EU, are you suggesting the UK will climb up to 3rd or 4th place once out of the EU ?

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