Westminstenders: Promises, promises(963 Posts)
Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.
There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.
Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.
All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.
The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.
Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.
The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.
Which leaves up shit creek.
At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.
That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.
The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.
It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...
Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.
This is real. This isn't a bluff.
arguments discussions with dh about Cummings. In my view he is the archetypal anarchist, in that he wants to destroy government/the establishment because he doesn't like or believe in them or holds a grudge against them . Or probably more to the point, he is supremely confident thinks that he is superior to them because they refused to acknowledge his superiority .
Who would have thought that Cummings is a hypocrite who claims EU subsidies? He doesn't believe in anything so he may as well claim the subsidies. He's playing God and is too rich to care.
I agree about Trump and his
declining cognitive function. Listen to his vocabulary now compared to even 10 years ago And his dislike of slopes (remember the May hand holding incident?) is another indicator. I see so many parallels with his body posture/walking to the way my mum's posture changed as her head injury deteriorated into a specific form of dementia
I suspect Trump, like Reagan before him, is a POTUS in the early stages of dementia
Trump was always a racist shit, but he seems to have lsot some of his higher funtioning abilities compared to say the 1990s
BJ is the same lying, narcissistic shit he always was
Hopefully more people will cotton on to this
However, he has a Goebbels-level talent for making multiple big lies widely believable - and not just to stupid people
Cummings will only add to this
Also, I'm not sure how you would gauge erratic behaviour escalating when it comes to Johnson.
Has Donald Trump aged?
He certainly looks the same, bar gaining weight. His behaviour is becoming more erratic though.
BigChocFrenzy - Unfortunately, part of me agrees with you: the aging process only happens to those that actually work and probably won't affect someone who sees it all as a big game
...I'd actually feel better if there were a picture tucked away a la Dorian Gray * heatedrollers* - at least that would imply that the added responsibility was having an effect somewhere
Pretty bit like a camera adds 10lb in weight being prime minister must add 10 years !!!
Re Jonny Mercer I listened to him interviewed on Matt Forde Political Party podcast and he is nothing like I expected although he clearly does not suffer from any confidence issues he is very self depreciating so I can well imagine this was a ‘joke’ designed to wind a certain female journalist up which has gone wrong. By the end of the interview I did have a grudging respect for him. Some of his reasons for getting into politics and what he wants to achieve seem at complete odds with someone prepared to sit in a Johnson Cabinet.
Not often I will stick up for a no deal politician and I will in no way defend some of his politics. I completely expect to be shot down in flames but there you go. Apologies in advance for anyone I have offended who has also listened to it and thought he came across as a toss pot it’s all about opinions !
(And no I’m not Mrs. Mercer and no I don’t fancy him either.)
He will have a portrait locked up somewhere like Dorian Gray.
He has no sense of shame, only a massive sense of entitlement
Probably won't happen, pretty because he is unlike any other PM I can think of:
He leaves all the work to others, as in London - so he won't be knackered
He doesn't give a shit what happens to party or country, so he won't worry, no matter how bad things get
- he just wants to play at being PM and boost his later earnings as a media personality
It might be mean but I'm looking forward to watching BlowJob visibly age and get greyer (both skin and hair) the longer he is prime minister
as they all do
Nice to know how much Brexiters care about the Union
Shows the objection to the backstop is just an excuse to force No Deal
We can expect the Scots to be demonised again in the GE campaign,
with Corbyn too cowardly / cynical to stand up for Scotland's right to self-determination
Recent polling shows a majority of Scots support Scottish independence.
In a new Hope Not Hate poll, many more – 60% – agree a no-deal Brexit will accelerate the demand for independence.
Only 15% disagree.
What is most worrying is not just that so many think the union will end but how at least for now so few appear to care.
Only 30% of British Conservatives (and only 14% of Brexit party voters) would oppose Brexit if it meant the break-up of the union:
56% of Tories (and 78% of Brexitt^^ party voters) – in total 70% of Leavers – would go ahead regardless, even if the union collapsed.^
the Tories will likely embrace Lynton Crosby’s well-honed election strategy:
to whip up English nationalism^ ^by demonising immigrants as well as perfidious Europeans and playing the Scottish card he so successfully deployed in 2015
He was the soldier in that Dove TV ad, shortly before becoming an MP
He looked fine then, but in the pics I've seen since - like many MPs -
he seems to have been taking too much advantage of the subsidised restaurants & bars
All those billions in promises
..... and Tories only up one^ point compared^ to the corresponding ^ poll^^ on^ the day BJ became leader
Just for fun, I put the Opinium poll figures in the seat calculator
and it gave a hung Paliament - where the DUP MPs were NOT sufficient to give a majority
Quite apart from the predictor, I suspect we will get a hung Parliament, maybe a succession of them
if the Tories+DUP in a new Parliament only needed a few more MPs for a majority, would the Lexiter MPs give Confidence & Support to a Tory post-Brexit govt ?
Marina Hyde on Mercer.
Quite frankly he is as attractive as George Warleggan.
Ireland is holding firm on the backstop,
because they don't want to be in a position where a trade deal has been negotiated and they have to veto it.
Easier to keep their line in the sand now.
However, the EU have said that the backstop will be a precondition for post-Brexit negotiations, even on minideals
Since most EU countries are actually small countries, like Ireland, they have plenty of support to keep this up.
BJ refusing to talk until the EU drops the backstop has hardened EU attitudes
So, it all depends on whether Ireland changes its mind - the EU won't force them
Anyway, if the backstop is dropped, BJ could put up goods check 5 minutes later, so Ireland could gain nothing even in he short term by giving in
- BJ should be thinking of what he could offer them
The UK has the problem that if they don't put up checks against Irish goods, then under WTO rules they can't against any other WTO member, without risking punitive tariffs etc
Current UK plans seem to be zero tariffs on many goods
However, that means other countries may not need to negotiate a trade deal with the UK,
e.g. Canada said that zero UK tariffs on their goods while still having their own WTO tariffs against Uk goods would probably be better than any trade deal
Then of course there is the US Congress and their infulential Ways & Means Committee who have vowed to block any trade deal that endangers the GFA
- basically that would mean Ireland again being able to demand a backstop
Who would have thought that Cummings is a hypocrite who claims EU subsidies?
Remainers want to maximise LDem, Green, SNP and Plaid support because those are the Remain parties
Remainers like me don't give a fuck which of the Brexit-supporting parties gets in, so long as it isn't Farage's
Lexiters have a cheek, pissing all over Remainers and then whingeing at those Remainers who refuse to vote for Labour ever again
Nationalism is a daft answer to the right questions.
When I grew up with the generally turgid pop music of the 80s I looked back jealously at the pop music of the 60s and 70s.
I feel the same about our politicians and journalists now.
Johnson always good at promising the earth. Or making sure money is wasted. I'd imagine private firms will make a good profit. With great inefficiency.
Labour rules out alliance with SNP in event of hung parliament amid election speculation
Quite right grandpa. Leaves the path ready for an agreement with the
Marina Wheeler tells of cervical cancer diagnosis
Boris Johnson’s estranged wife says she is free of cancer and urges women to take test
Wheeler was ill while he was with Symonds?
They know how appallingly that fat little man with dyed hair polls with women.
I suspect that might have been behind mercer's tweet to Hyde.
Is 'Worcester Woman' still a thing?
Join the discussion
Registering is free, quick, and means you can join in the discussion, watch threads, get discounts, win prizes and lots more.Get started »
Please login first.