Westminstenders: Promises, promises(963 Posts)
Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.
There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.
Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.
All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.
The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.
Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.
The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.
Which leaves up shit creek.
At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.
That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.
The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.
It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...
Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.
This is real. This isn't a bluff.
Trying again with my photo...
fleabags cats relaxing in their Scottish place in the sun
Nicola Sturgeon: ‘If we crash out with no deal, Corbyn will be almost as responsible as May or Johnson
Yup, agree with the excellent OP as usual. Thank you red
It looks horrendous. We did say.........
Usually I'm annoyed by repeated posts, but lonelyplanetmum's points need to be repeated again and again!
MN obviously still not right as I got the "Error 500 Failed to Post" message when I posted - and no photo
But at least I knew to ignore the message (which I'll do again if/when I get the message again when I post this )
Our Nicola echoing prettybird 's advice.
I have only one more question: what would be her advice to someone who lives in England? “Move to Scotland,” she says, with a quiet laugh
Is she at least half-serious? “More than half-serious. We need more people in Scotland. Absolutely: move to Scotland
Thanks peregrina I was trying to work out if the Queen tells Johnson to fuck off and he ignores her then what - how does the Queen enforce herself? (Rhetorical q as Google could not answer!)
I think im learning to get a handle on this...
During the campaign like we all know Leave/cummings went for manipulating people's opinions. So it's worth paying attention to who they are pointing the finger at.
Cumminings has accused Hammond of actively trying to thwart no deal while he was chancellor thus ignoring the supposed will of the people <eye roll> and blaming him if no deal is shit..... Hammond camp have stated that is simply not true. If they are going after Hammond that must mean they are worried about Hammond?
I haven't read them going after Corbyn because I assume not enough Tory MPs will ever back a Corbyn led government so he's a minimal threat to the dictatorship.
PMK from potentially our last affordable holiday.
Planning to ignore a VONC is terrifying. Not that I can see a new pm going sorted in the 14 days but it’s the start of something much worse.
Dh thinks this is all crazy talk - and he’s a highly educated man who is usually very realistic.
PMK. Problem is that JC doesn't want to be PM - his comfort zone is the opposition benches, and nothing will move him from them: he can shout and object and criticise all he likes from there without ever having to actually do anything.
Its gone very quiet from the other parties and Remainer Tories. I think they are war gaming scenarios. Remember also, it's the silly season as Parliament is not sitting and Johnson makes for good column inches in the paper. There's actually been very little action since the by-election and you could argue that Cummings pronouncements are a reaction to that. It does a good job of deflecting from how weak the Tory Government is. Can Johnson command the house if he has no majority? Even if he chooses to stay, there is talk of a mass walk out and an alternative Parliament.
Having said all of that, I am working on the assumption we will crash out. My business is being priced in dollars, I have quietly shifted around my pension and I am stockpiling again. If things really go shit in the medium run, I may accept the SNP's invitation to move to Scotland.
I've moved from panic and despair to grim acceptance. I truly think if Johnson succeeds in crashing us on the 31st, a new PM will be signing the WA in a years time after experiencing the collossal damage done.
Dh thinks this is all crazy talk - and he’s a highly educated man who is usually very realistic.
It's literally all there in the press though.
I can't believe how head in the sand most people are. Going 'booooring" and saying they just want it over with in AIBU before all the hard-right usual suspects descend to lie their arses off.
I need to dual qualify to practise in Scotland. It's on my to-do list.
From what I’ve read, the wording on a VoNC could be crucial.
It needs to be unequivocal that Johnson has lost the confidence and X MP does have the confidence of the House. Perhaps also requesting HM to dismiss Johnson.
There should be no doubt that HM isn’t making a decision, she’s simply obeying the decision of her Parliament who are complying with the provisions of the FTPA.
I need to dual qualify to practise in Scotland. It's on my to-do list
I requalified in Ireland immediately after the referendum. Sadly can't get Irish citizenship but met up with my uncle on Thursday and he is applying for it (he's 83 but obviously thinks it is worth it, so my 80 year old mother might now apply, too).
If you are a freelancer it might be worth applying for e-residency of Estonia and getting a bank account with Starling as you can also open a euro account. Might be worth being paid in euros and having an EU-registered company.
Going to have to disagree with a small bit of the Op. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This is NOT the case. Triggering Art 50 plus passing the EU Withdrawal Act including a departure date of October 31st makes not leaving regardless of any deal illegal. The first extension needed parliamentary legislation because of this. This is the effect of the Gina Miller case which clarified that Parliament needed to make the decision, rather than the Executive, because the EU Act of 1972 is UK Legislation.
Also because I was spitting feathers at Poly Toynbee last night. It is almost guaranteed that Labour MPs would vote No Confidence regardless of their Brexit stance.
However it is far less certain that they would support a Unity Government led by anyone but Corbyn either because they are a) committed to delivering Brexit like Kate Hoey and Caroline Flint or because b) they believe removing Corbyn to lend support to a Remain coalition led by Tory / LibDem / Blairite would irrevocably split the Labour Party.
It would be a tall order for Jo Swinson and Dominic Grieve to support a Unity Government led by JC but if I were in the PLP that would be my price. If Jo Swinson doesn't agree to this and Brexit gets delivered because of her then the LibDems will have sold out their totem policy again. That is what would save Labour at this point.
*howabout I disagree
I see Labour as the party of opposition with an incompetent leader.
It would be irresponsible of any to accept JC as PM. PLP know this better than anyone.
If a government of national unity cannot he formed because of Labour insisting Jc is PM then I will blame them!
They are the ones with the most to lose
Having a good laugh at Nicola.
“I do think there’s an element of …” she pauses. “Well, I said a moment ago that he talks what, in my view, is a load of nonsense, with utter conviction. And I do think there was an element of that sense of entitlement; the idea that you can make anybody believe anything if you say it in a particular way.”
Some in Scotland would say exactly the same thing about the SNP in general and her in particular.
Blaming JC is just her way of doubling down on the Labour vote she is after in Glasgow. However the risk for her is that she has confirmed that the price for any coalition with Labour would be Indyref2 and 48% of Scots are opposed to Independence - they don't all vote Tory. She has probably just given Stephen Gethin's seat to the LibDems.
You also need to get the support of the public for any election that follows.
Putting JC in as PM will not do that and could send many a vote to BJ and the Tories.
Momentum need to realise the damage that having his man as leader of the Labour Party is doing.
In my opinion Labour will very soon be in a position where there is no way back. They are making themselves unelectable for a very long time.
To add to the mood music of inmates running the asylum, did anyone read about poor ickle Capita trying to reverse a court verdict ?
Benefit-assessment company Capita is going to court to try to reverse the "reputational damage" it says it suffered after a claimant died.
Victoria Smith died months after her personal independence payments were stopped following a Capita assessment.
The outsourcing company was ordered to pay £10,000 in damages over its handling of her disability claim.
It was found to have made incorrect statements but wants the county court verdict set aside and the case reheard.
Incidentally, the Capita story is yet another example of the BBCs subtle spin on stories.
The clicklink from their main page actually says:
"Benefits firm aims to curb 'reputational damage'".
Which could lead a casual surfer to think Oh, good, they are going to sharpen up their act - which is actual the opposite of the reality.
Sneaky, underhand, and helping the government wherever they can - that's the new world BBC. And if they don't think there's a dossier somewhere in the black mass that makes up this coven of a government titled "plans for the BBC when we take control" then they've rather missed the point that a lot of programmes they've put out have been making.
Its gone very quiet from the other parties and Remainer Tories. I think they are war gaming scenarios
I’m really hoping there’s some serious scheming going on right now.
I’m so scared about how you “sell” Remain. If you look at the details Remain is clearly the most sensible option (understatement). But it’s really complicated, how do you put across the benefits of Remain in simple sound bites?
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