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Westminstenders: Promises, promises

(963 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 05-Aug-19 23:26:22

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

prettybird Mon 05-Aug-19 23:34:40

Scottish fleabags cats relaxing in their Scottish place in the sun smile

wheresmymojo Mon 05-Aug-19 23:35:52

I've used up my photo allowance for today so PMK with a cat emoji 🐈

wheresmymojo Mon 05-Aug-19 23:37:12

Off to bed...I can't see that BJ can simply ignore the VoNC but that being said I haven't looked at the legal text and need to go to bed!

Possibly one for tomorrow...

prettybird Mon 05-Aug-19 23:38:08

I did post a picture with my post - but it's not showing up confused at least, not in my feed sad

MaxNormal Mon 05-Aug-19 23:39:21

Where I grew up we had a military dictatorship and there were a series of bloodless coups over quite a short period.

I must admit I did not see one coming in the UK.

DarkAtEndOfUK Mon 05-Aug-19 23:42:37

PMK, thanks.

RedToothBrush Mon 05-Aug-19 23:43:07

The legal text does not explicitly state the PM must resign and that's what has been noticed.

It would put the Queen in a politically difficult position where the PM hasn't the confidence of Parliament...

FMFL Mon 05-Aug-19 23:44:22

PMK and thanks Red!

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Mon 05-Aug-19 23:54:10

PMK.

We really are fucked aren’t we. It’s just starting to sink in. Oh God, oh God, oh God, bollocks to it all.

SingingBabooshkaBadly Mon 05-Aug-19 23:54:45

Thank you Red

It would put the Queen in a politically difficult position where the PM hasn't the confidence of Parliament

So Johnson would have a mandate from neither the public nor Parliament but would refuse to go? An actual dictator then?

Meanwhile from Corbyn:

We will do everything to stop no deal, including a no-confidence vote at the appropriate very early time to do it

Doing everything to stop no deal? hmm Feel like that boat sailed when you whipped against Joanna Cherry’s amendment angry

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Tue 06-Aug-19 00:04:09

We will do everything to stop no deal, including a no-confidence vote at the appropriate very early time to do it

I wish everything included resigning as leader of the Labour Party and letting someone sane take over (probably too late anyway).

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 00:20:28

So if Johnson ignores a vote of no confidence...

Where does the army fit into this? Are they actually parliament's and not literally Her Majesty's Armed Forces?

Following an ignored vote of no confidence can our Liz step in with her forces to remove Johnson?

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 00:33:03

I have questions Google can't answer shock

Google did throw this up

www.democraticaudit.com/2019/08/05/is-it-too-late-to-stop-a-no-deal-brexit/

But the Sunday Telegraph is missing four vital points. First, the Prime Minister who decides the date might not be Boris Johnson. Secondly, a new Prime Minister might win a no confidence vote thus averting any election. Thirdly, Parliament might pass an Act amending section 2(7). And fourthly the Prime Minister is subject to judicial review in exercising the section 2(7) power.

The first point is fundamental. The UK Prime Minister is not elected, either by the electorate or by Parliament. The Prime Minister is appointed by the Queen. The Queen by convention appoints someone believed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons, but that person does not need to win a vote in the Commons before being appointed and even if that person subsequently loses a vote of confidence, he or she remains Prime Minister until either resignation or dismissal. As a result, it is perfectly possible for someone other than Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister at the end of the 14 days and for that person to choose an earlier date for the election.

How might someone else be appointed Prime Minister? We can discount the standard method that the existing Prime Minister resigns and in doing so advises the Queen to appoint a specific person as successor, since the whole scenario assumes that Boris Johnson is aiming to be Prime Minister at the end of the 14 days. The situation would be that Johnson, having lost the confidence of the House, simply squats at Number 10. Can anything be done to dislodge him? The answer is technically yes. The Queen can dismiss him. Admittedly no monarch has exercised this power since 1834, and it was a bit of a disaster then, and the Queen would almost certainly not exercise it if there was any chance that an incoming Prime Minister would fail to command the confidence of the House.

Some will argue that the Queen should do nothing even if an alternative majority exists since the most democratic way out of the dilemma is to let the electorate decide the issue. But this line of argument faces two big objections. First, ruling out a new government frustrates the intention of the 2011 Act, which allows for that possibility. Secondly, the issue for the electorate to decide is above all Brexit and if Johnson intends, as we now know, to time the election so that the electorate cannot decide Brexit, the democratic argument for doing nothing falls away. Johnson, a Prime Minister lacking the confidence of the House, would have decided, not the people. The Queen might agree to do nothing if Johnson agrees to hold the election at the earliest possible date, but that would also foil the plan.

It's a mediumish read with a lot of detail and if someone could explain it into stupid that would be great!

Icantreachthepretzels Tue 06-Aug-19 02:22:16

Oh how I would love Boris Johnson to not only be the shortest reigning PM in history, but the first PM since 1834 to be dismissed by the monarch.

I would hope that the incoming education secretary would get those two facts included in the GCSE history curriculum with immediate effect - and a note attached that these two facts must never be removed from the syllabus.Just for the lolz really.

Lisette1940 Tue 06-Aug-19 04:50:49

PMK. Thanks Red. God help us.

Whisky2014 Tue 06-Aug-19 05:04:39

Pmk

mathanxiety Tue 06-Aug-19 05:12:34

Thank you RTB.

PMK

borntobequiet Tue 06-Aug-19 05:28:38

Placemarking, thanks Red.
Best cat pic I could manage at such an early hour

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 05:34:03

A worried PMK. This is utterly bonkers, isn't it?

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 06:56:06

Really feel like crying.

And this picture doesn’t help sad

twofingerstoEverything Tue 06-Aug-19 07:02:30

pmk

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:03:25

What they're planning / doing should be a criminal offence. They KNOW it's a disaster. They KNOW that it's going to fuck the country up for decades. Yet they're doing it anyway. It really is a criminal act in my mind.

Lisette1940 Tue 06-Aug-19 07:04:06

Rhubarbisevil confused what a picture

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 07:11:53

I lifted it from the Sky News app this morning sad

I do feel that there will be riots pre- and post 31 October. Boris must be the ultimate Narcissist, don’t you think? A true psycho who is only out for his own glory. Well, I hope History remembers him as the man he truly is angry

bellinisurge Tue 06-Aug-19 07:16:52

I can't believe I'm starting to pin all my hopes on the Queen. I am plugging away at my hope that Parliament can stop No Deal.
I can tolerate an orderly Brexit just not No Deal.

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:18:21

All of this, 'We must do as the people voted', blah blah blah is more hypocrisy from the man if he's then going to ignore a VoNC. He's a hideous man. Evil.

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:20:06

Same here, Bellini.

Is there any way that Parliament can bring the WA back itself to vote for it? I'm sure there's not.

Everyone who voted against the Cherry amendment should be fucking ashamed of themselves right now. Corbyn especially for whipping against it.

CrunchyCarrot Tue 06-Aug-19 07:20:46

Thanks, Red.

It's dreadful. I'm inwardly screaming. What is wrong with the Labour Party, why so silent?? Where the fuck are they? Bloody hell. angry

PostNotInHaste Tue 06-Aug-19 07:27:10

Well this is incredibly depressing. What makes it worse is the feeling of seeing impending disaster coming and having to sit back and do absolutely nothing. Really feel the need to do something but there doesn’t seem to be anything. Protests don’t really work but the petition and the March did seem to temporarily change the mood.

We can not sit back and let this happen without a fight, we won’t forgive ourselves and our children won’t. I am a Grandchild of the generation who voted in the Nazis so I speak from experience. I know everyone is exhausted with all this but this is our last chance to not go down without a fight, a short period of time between now and 31 October.

What can be done I don’t know but we have to try and there are many better brains than me . We need to make life hard for Johnson, he’s relying on the general apathy of the British currently to have an easy ride right up to 31 October and it’s just not acceptable. Sorry for rant, off to find my blood pressure tablets whilst I still have them.

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:30:37

The October march needs some serious publicising. I hope there are buses going again as I'll definitely be on one if there is.

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 07:32:50

I agree with you Post but what can we do? We will be dismissed, laughed at, demeaned and ridiculed. The only think I can think of doing is to join the Tories and attend the party conference, take a swipe at Boris and be arrested. I will then be labelled as mentally unwell (because I’m white - otherwise I’d be a terrorist), Boris will say “I have this effect on all women”, everyone will laugh and that will be the end of it.

PostNotInHaste Tue 06-Aug-19 07:39:21

We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one. My 84 year old neighbour who voted Leave but has changed her mind can’t do London but she might just be able to go somewhere local.

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

PostNotInHaste Tue 06-Aug-19 07:41:07

And base it on emotion, not facts.

PostNotInHaste Tue 06-Aug-19 07:43:03

The Not in My Name campaign. I will shut up now and go and get caffeine so I wake up.

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 07:48:40

Also inwardly screaming.

Leaving DP to sleep in while I get my head straight.

-

Yeah I can't get my head straight because this is fucking nuts.

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:48:58

My fucking useless MP won't do anything. He can't even read emails properly.

Motheroffourdragons Tue 06-Aug-19 07:54:15

PMK - thanks Red

Peregrina Tue 06-Aug-19 07:58:06

Are they actually parliament's and not literally Her Majesty's Armed Forces?

Good question - it's the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy, but it's the British not the Royal Army.

Other than that, I felt really depressed reading about us falling in with America re Gulf shipping. I give myself a small crumb of comfort in that 10% of Americans identify as having an Irish background, and I am as sure as can be that it comes from the 19th Century Irish fleeing the famine. So I hope Congress stands firm and says a firm NO to a trade deal, unless the NI situation is sorted.

CrunchyCarrot Tue 06-Aug-19 08:01:58

We will be dismissed, laughed at, demeaned and ridiculed. The only think I can think of doing is to join the Tories and attend the party conference, take a swipe at Boris and be arrested. I will then be labelled as mentally unwell (because I’m white - otherwise I’d be a terrorist), Boris will say “I have this effect on all women”, everyone will laugh and that will be the end of it.

I gave a rueful laugh at this, but it's so true! Boris the Pied Piper of Brexit ruffles his hair and makes a joke as he leads the country over the cliff edge. angry

megletthesecond Tue 06-Aug-19 08:02:30

yy bell. I have fantasies that HRH is swotting up on this stuff with her advisors, and ready to a) read Johnson the riot act or b) speak up.

Bercows Tue 06-Aug-19 08:02:48

PMK

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:02:49

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:01

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

Bercows Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:03

PMK

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:12

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:33

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

Peregrina Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:49

The October march needs some serious publicising. I hope there are buses going again as I'll definitely be on one if there is.

I am afraid that with Johnson at the helm, (the man who wasted the taxpayers money on illegal water cannon), that there might be violence this time. I would not put it past him to use Agents Provocateur to whip it up.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:49

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 06-Aug-19 08:03:59

* We need to create social media and general noise. We need a series of Marches across the country so that everyone can get to , all at the same time- not just one central one.*...

New petition against No deal. Letter writing campaign to local MP and Johnson. Noise and lots of it. And possibly some inconvenience to people for a short period but not sure what. Poll tax was over turned, the stakes for this are so much higher.

This is Worthy of repeating. Never give up.

If you're a lurker who wants to do something start with 5 or 10 minutes a day.

In that time..Sign petitions, contribute to crowd funded pro EU campaigns, comment on newspaper or number 10 sites, write to MPs - thanking good ones, and pointing out lies etc told by bad ones. Join a political party. Join a local or Facebook 48% type group. Go on your first march or recruit friends to join a march.

Encourage one friend to start doing something too, even with 10 minutes s day. Never give up.

prettybird Tue 06-Aug-19 08:05:21

Trying again with my photo...

Scottish fleabags cats relaxing in their Scottish place in the sun wink

woman19 Tue 06-Aug-19 08:10:17

Nicola Sturgeon: ‘If we crash out with no deal, Corbyn will be almost as responsible as May or Johnson
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/06/nicola-sturgeon-if-we-crash-out-with-no-deal-corbyn-will-be-almost-as-responsible-as-may-or-johnson

Yup, agree with the excellent OP as usual. Thank you red
It looks horrendous. We did say.........

IrenetheQuaint Tue 06-Aug-19 08:13:15

Usually I'm annoyed by repeated posts, but lonelyplanetmum's points need to be repeated again and again!

prettybird Tue 06-Aug-19 08:18:11

MN obviously still not right as I got the "Error 500 Failed to Post" message when I posted confused - and no photo sad

But at least I knew to ignore the message grin (which I'll do again if/when I get the message again when I post this wink)

woman19 Tue 06-Aug-19 08:19:13

Our Nicola echoing prettybird 's advice. smile

I have only one more question: what would be her advice to someone who lives in England? “Move to Scotland,” she says, with a quiet laugh

Is she at least half-serious? “More than half-serious. We need more people in Scotland. Absolutely: move to Scotland

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 08:20:07

Thanks peregrina I was trying to work out if the Queen tells Johnson to fuck off and he ignores her then what - how does the Queen enforce herself? (Rhetorical q as Google could not answer!)

-

I think im learning to get a handle on this...

During the campaign like we all know Leave/cummings went for manipulating people's opinions. So it's worth paying attention to who they are pointing the finger at.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-dominic-cummings-philip-hammond-boris-johnson-a9040546.html

Cumminings has accused Hammond of actively trying to thwart no deal while he was chancellor thus ignoring the supposed will of the people <eye roll> and blaming him if no deal is shit..... Hammond camp have stated that is simply not true. If they are going after Hammond that must mean they are worried about Hammond?

I haven't read them going after Corbyn because I assume not enough Tory MPs will ever back a Corbyn led government so he's a minimal threat to the dictatorship.

TokyoSushi Tue 06-Aug-19 08:21:11

PMK from potentially our last affordable holiday.

Wait4nothing Tue 06-Aug-19 08:36:17

Planning to ignore a VONC is terrifying. Not that I can see a new pm going sorted in the 14 days but it’s the start of something much worse.
Dh thinks this is all crazy talk - and he’s a highly educated man who is usually very realistic.

Hoooo Tue 06-Aug-19 08:42:46

Pmk

titchy Tue 06-Aug-19 08:44:12

PMK. Problem is that JC doesn't want to be PM - his comfort zone is the opposition benches, and nothing will move him from them: he can shout and object and criticise all he likes from there without ever having to actually do anything.

TheABC Tue 06-Aug-19 08:51:29

Its gone very quiet from the other parties and Remainer Tories. I think they are war gaming scenarios. Remember also, it's the silly season as Parliament is not sitting and Johnson makes for good column inches in the paper. There's actually been very little action since the by-election and you could argue that Cummings pronouncements are a reaction to that. It does a good job of deflecting from how weak the Tory Government is. Can Johnson command the house if he has no majority? Even if he chooses to stay, there is talk of a mass walk out and an alternative Parliament.

Having said all of that, I am working on the assumption we will crash out. My business is being priced in dollars, I have quietly shifted around my pension and I am stockpiling again. If things really go shit in the medium run, I may accept the SNP's invitation to move to Scotland.

I've moved from panic and despair to grim acceptance. I truly think if Johnson succeeds in crashing us on the 31st, a new PM will be signing the WA in a years time after experiencing the collossal damage done.

MaxNormal Tue 06-Aug-19 08:55:55

Dh thinks this is all crazy talk - and he’s a highly educated man who is usually very realistic.

It's literally all there in the press though.
I can't believe how head in the sand most people are. Going 'booooring" and saying they just want it over with in AIBU before all the hard-right usual suspects descend to lie their arses off.

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 09:00:30

I need to dual qualify to practise in Scotland. It's on my to-do list.

TheElementsSong Tue 06-Aug-19 09:07:45

PMK with my summer seasonal blue-and-yellow floral display flowers

TheNumberfaker Tue 06-Aug-19 09:12:16

From what I’ve read, the wording on a VoNC could be crucial.
It needs to be unequivocal that Johnson has lost the confidence and X MP does have the confidence of the House. Perhaps also requesting HM to dismiss Johnson.
There should be no doubt that HM isn’t making a decision, she’s simply obeying the decision of her Parliament who are complying with the provisions of the FTPA.

probstimeforanewname Tue 06-Aug-19 09:31:07

I need to dual qualify to practise in Scotland. It's on my to-do list

I requalified in Ireland immediately after the referendum. Sadly can't get Irish citizenship but met up with my uncle on Thursday and he is applying for it (he's 83 but obviously thinks it is worth it, so my 80 year old mother might now apply, too).

If you are a freelancer it might be worth applying for e-residency of Estonia and getting a bank account with Starling as you can also open a euro account. Might be worth being paid in euros and having an EU-registered company.

howabout Tue 06-Aug-19 09:32:38

Going to have to disagree with a small bit of the Op. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This is NOT the case. Triggering Art 50 plus passing the EU Withdrawal Act including a departure date of October 31st makes not leaving regardless of any deal illegal. The first extension needed parliamentary legislation because of this. This is the effect of the Gina Miller case which clarified that Parliament needed to make the decision, rather than the Executive, because the EU Act of 1972 is UK Legislation.

Also because I was spitting feathers at Poly Toynbee last night. It is almost guaranteed that Labour MPs would vote No Confidence regardless of their Brexit stance.

However it is far less certain that they would support a Unity Government led by anyone but Corbyn either because they are a) committed to delivering Brexit like Kate Hoey and Caroline Flint or because b) they believe removing Corbyn to lend support to a Remain coalition led by Tory / LibDem / Blairite would irrevocably split the Labour Party.

It would be a tall order for Jo Swinson and Dominic Grieve to support a Unity Government led by JC but if I were in the PLP that would be my price. If Jo Swinson doesn't agree to this and Brexit gets delivered because of her then the LibDems will have sold out their totem policy again. That is what would save Labour at this point.

TheNumberfaker Tue 06-Aug-19 09:34:35

spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2019/08/06/boris-johnsons-duty-to-resign/

Justaboutdone Tue 06-Aug-19 09:37:13

*howabout I disagree

I see Labour as the party of opposition with an incompetent leader.

It would be irresponsible of any to accept JC as PM. PLP know this better than anyone.

If a government of national unity cannot he formed because of Labour insisting Jc is PM then I will blame them!

They are the ones with the most to lose

howabout Tue 06-Aug-19 09:41:55

Having a good laugh at Nicola.

“I do think there’s an element of …” she pauses. “Well, I said a moment ago that he talks what, in my view, is a load of nonsense, with utter conviction. And I do think there was an element of that sense of entitlement; the idea that you can make anybody believe anything if you say it in a particular way.”

Some in Scotland would say exactly the same thing about the SNP in general and her in particular.

Blaming JC is just her way of doubling down on the Labour vote she is after in Glasgow. However the risk for her is that she has confirmed that the price for any coalition with Labour would be Indyref2 and 48% of Scots are opposed to Independence - they don't all vote Tory. She has probably just given Stephen Gethin's seat to the LibDems.

Justaboutdone Tue 06-Aug-19 09:43:20

You also need to get the support of the public for any election that follows.

Putting JC in as PM will not do that and could send many a vote to BJ and the Tories.

Momentum need to realise the damage that having his man as leader of the Labour Party is doing.

In my opinion Labour will very soon be in a position where there is no way back. They are making themselves unelectable for a very long time.

GeistohneGrenzen Tue 06-Aug-19 09:46:42

pmk and thanks again Red flowers

DGRossetti Tue 06-Aug-19 09:48:31

To add to the mood music of inmates running the asylum, did anyone read about poor ickle Capita trying to reverse a court verdict ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49208240#

Benefit-assessment company Capita is going to court to try to reverse the "reputational damage" it says it suffered after a claimant died.

Victoria Smith died months after her personal independence payments were stopped following a Capita assessment.

The outsourcing company was ordered to pay £10,000 in damages over its handling of her disability claim.

It was found to have made incorrect statements but wants the county court verdict set aside and the case reheard.

DGRossetti Tue 06-Aug-19 09:52:51

Incidentally, the Capita story is yet another example of the BBCs subtle spin on stories.

The clicklink from their main page actually says:

"Benefits firm aims to curb 'reputational damage'".

Which could lead a casual surfer to think Oh, good, they are going to sharpen up their act - which is actual the opposite of the reality.

Sneaky, underhand, and helping the government wherever they can - that's the new world BBC. And if they don't think there's a dossier somewhere in the black mass that makes up this coven of a government titled "plans for the BBC when we take control" then they've rather missed the point that a lot of programmes they've put out have been making.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Tue 06-Aug-19 09:53:29

Its gone very quiet from the other parties and Remainer Tories. I think they are war gaming scenarios

I’m really hoping there’s some serious scheming going on right now.

I’m so scared about how you “sell” Remain. If you look at the details Remain is clearly the most sensible option (understatement). But it’s really complicated, how do you put across the benefits of Remain in simple sound bites?

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 09:55:08

Thanks, red 💐
Excellent OP as always

No Deal is the automatic default under international law
even if that is illegal under UK law, because BJ ignores an HOC vote and / or suspends Parliament

International law trumps UK law for international treaties
and for any possible cases brought afterwards to an international court

Even if BJ and the entire Tory govt were later tried and convicted of crimes under British law, it would not affect the legal fact that we would have left.

Westministenders' Abbreviations:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation?msgid=84503730

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 09:59:26

Firms like Capita would do well after No Deal,

if the hard right Brexiters can carry out their aims of a Bonfire of Red Tape Rights
and no more ECJ to appeal to, when British law is against rights of the poor & vulnerable

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:05:58

ThereWill I actually believe remain would win a pv if there was no psyops - it would have the first time around. It is clear that we won't be getting another one of those and has been as soon as TM echo'd Leave rhetoric; they are taking us this way come hell or high water. I do think TM wanted the WA and avoidance of No Deal but she was a puppet for hardliners and there has been a long term plan to get BoZo in as PM.

I'm certainly under no illusions that this is a democracy. Any new elections are purely for show.

derxa Tue 06-Aug-19 10:07:24

.

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 10:10:18

"48% of Scots are opposed to Independence"

I wonder how solid that figure is and how much it would drop after a No Deal crash 🤔

following a referendum won by English votes overwhelming the large Scottish Remain vote
and with English Tory - and some Labour - MPs switching immediately afterwards to a scorched earth No Deal instead of the "Norway / EFTA" type Brexit that was talked up by Leave leaders

Look at the contrast between the influence of Scotland in the UK vs Ireland in the EU

5 million Irish people have the veto over the future relationship between 450 million in the E2^7 and the 65 million in the UK^
because Brexit affects Ireland's core interests.

Scotland is not even allowed to call an Indy Ref without UK govt approval

The UK had the right to invoke A50 any time- the delay is entirely because Brexiters are demanding to keep the benefits of the EU and its other trade deals and agencies

Scotland cannot vote against Westminster declarations of war ..... or trade treaties

Scotland has no power to refuse Trident, nuclear missile transport, nuclear bases, power stations, fracking .....

Easy to see which supranational construct lets its member nations have more rights, more say in what happens to them.

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 10:11:53

btw, I'm still having great trouble posting on MN
I gather some others are too ?

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:13:05

I'm still trying to figure out why Gove pulled the plug on BoZo first time around though. We've covered on these threads how women are often used to 'placemark' at these times then shot down and a male takes over. Was it thought at the time BoZo needed some distance from his campaign or was there something not quite in place yet? Maybe they just wanted TM to work her arse off and see what someone could actually get from EU (clearly BoZo was never going to put in that kind of grunt) and then cherry-pick from that? Just seems odd when Gove has history with hatred of the GFA and NI and the main vocalised block to WA is the Backstop...

Justaboutdone Tue 06-Aug-19 10:13:36

BCF I can see your comment in TIO but not in actual thread.

It seems to resolve itself when someone else posts.

Let’s see if me posting fixes it grin

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 10:16:24

Our fantasy new govt would have to be an interim one dealing solely with Brexit
and not passing any other laws without the consent of all parties

It must agree that as soon as Brexit has been resolved, if this is before May 2022, then it would dissolve itself and call a GE under which parties would stand separately as normal (if they wished)

That would be essential to avoid Tory rebel worries of it being a leftwing Corbynite govt
and Corbynite fears of it being centrist or liberal Tory

jasjas1973 Tue 06-Aug-19 10:16:53

I’m really hoping there’s some serious scheming going on right now

Doubt that, they'll all be on holidays, with brexit a problem for another day, it really doesn't affect them.

MPs have shown time and time again they do not have the nerve to do much at all, that isn't going to change, so no VoNC or Revoke.

Any GE after brexit is going to be held whilst the UK goes through food/meds shortages and a currency crisis, likely as not food & fuel prices will soar, as most priced in either euros or dollars.

BJ wants to stay in power, i just don't see how a no-deal is going to help him achieve this... unless he plans to stay in office until May 2022, hoping that the worst will be over........

tobee Tue 06-Aug-19 10:19:25

I expect the other parties and remainer Tories are on their hols.

At the weekend, had a small family gathering, all staunch remainers. Someone advocated civil unrest. There were responses of "yeeesss!" And little cheers. "Hooray!" But we were all inwardly probably thinking "what, the 4 of us?" That's the problem, we're all too divided around the place. There is no cogent plan. All the remainer politicians are too split. At this late stage people in parliament plenty vehemently don't want to work with the SNP, Corbyn's Labour, moderate Tories, libdems, the Greens etc.

We, on here, the majority of whom appear to be very much voted remain, have different ideas about what we went next:- revoke, people's vote, soft Brexit.

Obviously it's not down to us (boo! Shame!)grin

howabout Tue 06-Aug-19 10:20:04

BCF the Gina Miller case says otherwise or TM could have triggered Art 50 without Parliament. FWIW I think the Art 50 case was wrongly decided. The mirror image of the issue is that the EU and the UK Government argued the UK could not Unilaterally Revoke because of International Treaty Law. They Lost.

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:20:50

jasjas I've long suspected he will call a GE to be held within the first 2 weeks after No Deal; he can capitalise on the Leave vote and set a new national holiday before the hard times really hit.

He can literally sit and do bugger all (other than his 'not campaigning' for a GE) in relation to Brexit now and get exactly what he wants.

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:23:15

tobee it's akin to Years and Years again isn't it; we all just let it happen.

These threads are great because we get to vocalise, but any kind of planning for more is a legal risk. I think remainers aren't easily stirred to violent acts, but once the reality hits it won't matter which side you voted for; Christmas this year is going to be interesting.

tobee Tue 06-Aug-19 10:24:16

I'm on the app. I write my bit. Click "post" it says unable to post, re try or cancel? I press cancel. It, however, posts. But doesn't clear the text in the text writing box.🤷🏻‍♀️

I know lonely started her post earlier with "this is worth repeating " but I had it as having repeated 48 times. (I exaggerate)

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 10:26:00

"why Gove pulled the plug on BoZo first time around"

My theory:

+ This was an obvious shock to both Gove & BJ that Leave won - they had no plan for this.

+ Before, the plan was for BJ to take over as the reconciliation candidate for a bruised Tor party after Remain won

+ However, Gove - like Cameron - realised what a horrendous task Brexit would be
He also realised BJ was a dreadful choice to carry it out - chaotic, incompetent, lazy, immoral ....

+ Unfortunately, by the time of the leadership election, it was clear May was completely powerless to proceed, sothe Tory fanatics got their BJ
At this stage, Gove (on the road to Damascus !) decided it was his duty to stay and try to help the country through No Deal, rather than leaving it all to the Social Darwinist clique of Cummings, Raabs, Patel

He is a bastard, but he is by far the most competent Brexiter and his stint at DEFRA seems to have given him a No Deal reality check.

tobee Tue 06-Aug-19 10:26:21

I know we don't advocate violence on this thread, etc etc, but right now, I really want to boot 🥾 Boris in the bum.

Socksontheradiator Tue 06-Aug-19 10:27:39

Thanks again RTB flowers

DGRossetti Tue 06-Aug-19 10:35:02

.

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:37:46

I've also had daydreams about throwing eggs tobee grin

Another thought; leavers will be the new LD's - enabling the Tories to put austerity (or whatever they will call it after Brexit) into hyper-drive.

BigChocFrenzy Tue 06-Aug-19 10:38:55

Howabout The Gina Miller case was about the UK govt triggering A50 and doing so correctly under UK law
The decision to trigger has to be legally valid

However, once that was done, No Deal Brexit happens automatically after the due date
No further decision or consent is required under international law

A country getting itself into total chaotic disfunction and / or political deadlock does not invlidate A50 or other international law

The ECJ decision on unilateral revocation interpreted the (Lisbon) international treaties of the EU differently to the UK govvt & EU Commission
They did not use UK law for their decision

In neither case did UK law trump international law

If BJ manages to run out time until 11pm on 31st October, regardless of whether he is acting illegally under UK law,
the Uk will be out of the EU with No Deal.

It may be that if it is proved afterwards that UK law / constitutional procedure was broken - and a new UK govt requests this -
that the EU will find a way to wink and let the UK back in long enough to say approve the WA, or eevn Revoke (unlikely the latter)

However, that would be a political decision, not a legal one

It is v v unlikely that a future Uk govt could obtain that decision from an international court without the agreement of the EU

Peregrina Tue 06-Aug-19 10:39:21

The ultimate responsibility will lie with Cameron, May and Johnson, and those Tories who voted for Johnson.

jasjas1973 Tue 06-Aug-19 10:40:14

Lonely
Yes that may be his plan but he would need 2/3rds of MPs to support him in that and imho Labour would be crazy to assist.

Far better to let the Tories stew in their own mess, its not as if Labour could do much about any post brexit crisis.

LonelyTiredandLow Tue 06-Aug-19 10:41:59

BigChoc yes, that's along the lines of what I originally thought. However something doesn't sit right that he is now merrily working for BoZo. Brexiteers aren't exactly the kind to forgive and forget. Clearly he will be one of the fall guys but I'm surprised people like Cummings are happy to have him on the team.

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 10:42:28

Brilliant Rosetti and absolutely true!

The next tweet is all about living under a bridge wrapped in newspaper.

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