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Westminstenders: Promises, promises

(963 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 05-Aug-19 23:26:22

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

prettybird Mon 05-Aug-19 23:34:40

Scottish fleabags cats relaxing in their Scottish place in the sun smile

wheresmymojo Mon 05-Aug-19 23:35:52

I've used up my photo allowance for today so PMK with a cat emoji 🐈

wheresmymojo Mon 05-Aug-19 23:37:12

Off to bed...I can't see that BJ can simply ignore the VoNC but that being said I haven't looked at the legal text and need to go to bed!

Possibly one for tomorrow...

prettybird Mon 05-Aug-19 23:38:08

I did post a picture with my post - but it's not showing up confused at least, not in my feed sad

MaxNormal Mon 05-Aug-19 23:39:21

Where I grew up we had a military dictatorship and there were a series of bloodless coups over quite a short period.

I must admit I did not see one coming in the UK.

DarkAtEndOfUK Mon 05-Aug-19 23:42:37

PMK, thanks.

RedToothBrush Mon 05-Aug-19 23:43:07

The legal text does not explicitly state the PM must resign and that's what has been noticed.

It would put the Queen in a politically difficult position where the PM hasn't the confidence of Parliament...

FMFL Mon 05-Aug-19 23:44:22

PMK and thanks Red!

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Mon 05-Aug-19 23:54:10

PMK.

We really are fucked aren’t we. It’s just starting to sink in. Oh God, oh God, oh God, bollocks to it all.

SingingBabooshkaBadly Mon 05-Aug-19 23:54:45

Thank you Red

It would put the Queen in a politically difficult position where the PM hasn't the confidence of Parliament

So Johnson would have a mandate from neither the public nor Parliament but would refuse to go? An actual dictator then?

Meanwhile from Corbyn:

We will do everything to stop no deal, including a no-confidence vote at the appropriate very early time to do it

Doing everything to stop no deal? hmm Feel like that boat sailed when you whipped against Joanna Cherry’s amendment angry

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Tue 06-Aug-19 00:04:09

We will do everything to stop no deal, including a no-confidence vote at the appropriate very early time to do it

I wish everything included resigning as leader of the Labour Party and letting someone sane take over (probably too late anyway).

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 00:20:28

So if Johnson ignores a vote of no confidence...

Where does the army fit into this? Are they actually parliament's and not literally Her Majesty's Armed Forces?

Following an ignored vote of no confidence can our Liz step in with her forces to remove Johnson?

Hazardtired Tue 06-Aug-19 00:33:03

I have questions Google can't answer shock

Google did throw this up

www.democraticaudit.com/2019/08/05/is-it-too-late-to-stop-a-no-deal-brexit/

But the Sunday Telegraph is missing four vital points. First, the Prime Minister who decides the date might not be Boris Johnson. Secondly, a new Prime Minister might win a no confidence vote thus averting any election. Thirdly, Parliament might pass an Act amending section 2(7). And fourthly the Prime Minister is subject to judicial review in exercising the section 2(7) power.

The first point is fundamental. The UK Prime Minister is not elected, either by the electorate or by Parliament. The Prime Minister is appointed by the Queen. The Queen by convention appoints someone believed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons, but that person does not need to win a vote in the Commons before being appointed and even if that person subsequently loses a vote of confidence, he or she remains Prime Minister until either resignation or dismissal. As a result, it is perfectly possible for someone other than Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister at the end of the 14 days and for that person to choose an earlier date for the election.

How might someone else be appointed Prime Minister? We can discount the standard method that the existing Prime Minister resigns and in doing so advises the Queen to appoint a specific person as successor, since the whole scenario assumes that Boris Johnson is aiming to be Prime Minister at the end of the 14 days. The situation would be that Johnson, having lost the confidence of the House, simply squats at Number 10. Can anything be done to dislodge him? The answer is technically yes. The Queen can dismiss him. Admittedly no monarch has exercised this power since 1834, and it was a bit of a disaster then, and the Queen would almost certainly not exercise it if there was any chance that an incoming Prime Minister would fail to command the confidence of the House.

Some will argue that the Queen should do nothing even if an alternative majority exists since the most democratic way out of the dilemma is to let the electorate decide the issue. But this line of argument faces two big objections. First, ruling out a new government frustrates the intention of the 2011 Act, which allows for that possibility. Secondly, the issue for the electorate to decide is above all Brexit and if Johnson intends, as we now know, to time the election so that the electorate cannot decide Brexit, the democratic argument for doing nothing falls away. Johnson, a Prime Minister lacking the confidence of the House, would have decided, not the people. The Queen might agree to do nothing if Johnson agrees to hold the election at the earliest possible date, but that would also foil the plan.

It's a mediumish read with a lot of detail and if someone could explain it into stupid that would be great!

Icantreachthepretzels Tue 06-Aug-19 02:22:16

Oh how I would love Boris Johnson to not only be the shortest reigning PM in history, but the first PM since 1834 to be dismissed by the monarch.

I would hope that the incoming education secretary would get those two facts included in the GCSE history curriculum with immediate effect - and a note attached that these two facts must never be removed from the syllabus.Just for the lolz really.

Lisette1940 Tue 06-Aug-19 04:50:49

PMK. Thanks Red. God help us.

Whisky2014 Tue 06-Aug-19 05:04:39

Pmk

mathanxiety Tue 06-Aug-19 05:12:34

Thank you RTB.

PMK

borntobequiet Tue 06-Aug-19 05:28:38

Placemarking, thanks Red.
Best cat pic I could manage at such an early hour

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 05:34:03

A worried PMK. This is utterly bonkers, isn't it?

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 06:56:06

Really feel like crying.

And this picture doesn’t help sad

twofingerstoEverything Tue 06-Aug-19 07:02:30

pmk

NoWordForFluffy Tue 06-Aug-19 07:03:25

What they're planning / doing should be a criminal offence. They KNOW it's a disaster. They KNOW that it's going to fuck the country up for decades. Yet they're doing it anyway. It really is a criminal act in my mind.

Lisette1940 Tue 06-Aug-19 07:04:06

Rhubarbisevil confused what a picture

Rhubarbisevil Tue 06-Aug-19 07:11:53

I lifted it from the Sky News app this morning sad

I do feel that there will be riots pre- and post 31 October. Boris must be the ultimate Narcissist, don’t you think? A true psycho who is only out for his own glory. Well, I hope History remembers him as the man he truly is angry

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