What happens with the NI border in the event of No Deal?

[Bearbehind]

I can’t get my head round this.

If we leave with no deal then what happens regarding the NI border?

[bellinisurge]

The pretence that no one will erect a hard border will be tested. Because the WTO requires you to have control of your economic area. I seem to recall the EU saying there would have to be a border. I suppose it will be a game of chicken. Only one side will be desperate for trade deals and proving they are a fit and proper economic area. And the other will be the EU.

[ICouldBeSomebodyYouKnow]

I don't think anyone knows. Remember when Teresa May said they'd negotiated 95% of the deal? The NI border was the other 5%. Except the border is actually about 95% of the deal, not the other way round.

[frozendaisy]

I think the person who can answer this question more than qualifies for the keys to Number 10!

[PortLouis1996]

Odd one this. WTO does not specifically mention borders. Searching on google produces very different views as to how to apply WTO in this scenario

After Brexit NI is no longer EU. So ROI, to comply with EU requirements, will have to perform checks on goods coming in from NI, but that could be seen to contradict the GFA.

That BJ has said get rid f the backstop or it is no deal does not solve the border issue at all in my view.

[hadthesnip2]

The UK says it doesnt want one, the EU says it doesnt want one. So don't build one.

[Neolara]

There will have to be a hard border. I don't see an alternative. If UK is importing goods that do not meet eu standards (for example, chlorinated chicken from USA), the EU will need to ensure that this does not enter the EU to be resold. If they don't, their whole system of ensuring safety and consistency through agreed standardisaton falls apart. The only way to do this is to impose a system of checking what is being imported into the EU. If they don't, people will bring unregulated goods over the border.

[PortLouis1996]

There will have to be a hard border. I don't see an alternative

I can't work it out either. Without some form of control how does ROI ensure that goods from NI, which may have come from the UK via a WTO country that has lower standards? Goods traded between UK mainland and NI will not be checked as it is UK trading with UK.

If someone knows how to solve this they deserve two Nobel Prizes. One for technology innovation and another for preserving peace.

BJs statement scrap the backstop or it is no deal does not help at all. How does no deal solve the border issue and GFA?

[StrumpersPlunkett]

What happens on the european mainland with non eu countries which boarder the EU?

[bellinisurge]

@StrumpersPlunkett , they don't have GFA obligations so it isn't an issue.

[pollyannaperspective]

They have border controls, checks for people, plants, goods etc. If the thing being checked does not meet EU single market standards or customs paperwork not correct entry is denied.

[bellinisurge]

Here's the solution- make NI a special economic area and put the border in the sea. Do I get a Nobel Prize

[StrumpersPlunkett]

Oh interesting thanks

[PortLouis1996]

Do I get a Nobel Prize wink

No because that’s not a technology solution . How would a border in the sea prevent goods that don’t meet EU standards from passing from UK mainland to NI (UK to UK) and then over the border into ROI?

[bellinisurge]

If the whole of NI is still in tbe customs union then it will already be ok to move.

[bellinisurge]

And single market, of course.

[prettybird]

What happens on the European mainland with non EU countries which border the EU?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44054594 Brexit: What can UK learn from other external EU borders?

Norway-Sweden : average wait 20 minutes for one of the most technologically advanced borders in the world. That includes roughly 10 minutes waiting time, three to six minutes of handling time, and the time spent coming off the road to complete the customs process.

It is highly efficient, but certainly not entirely frictionless.

And that's with Norway in the Single Market

Turkey-Bulgaria : average wait for HGVs, 24 hours.

And that's with Turkey in the Customs Union

Switzerland-France : average weight 20 minutes to 2 hours, according International Road Transport Union (IRU), (more than two hours if full inspections have to be carried out).


This is for HGVs.

For people, Freedom of Movement under Schengen and/or the Common Travel Area applies (but not in Turkey's case?). Some MPs (like Daniel Hannan) don't seem to understand the difference between people and goods

[Bearbehind]

I was really hoping I’d missed something obvious here but it seems I haven’t

So basically

• The WA couldn’t pass because of the backstop
  

• The backstop is needed because we have no way of controlling the border with technology in the medium or even long term future
  

• instead we’re pursuing no deal which makes the border problem crystallise in less than 3 months
  

Fucking marvellous

[SistemaAddict]

Yep. No solutions have been found. Except Remain, of course.

[PortLouis1996]

Even no deal does not solve. Are EU prepared to have an open border with a non EU country? EU requirements to check goods that enter from outside EU are clear as demonstrated by the examples given above about waiting times. However, WTO seems to be less clear.

[bellinisurge]

@PortLouis1996 WTO rules require both UK and EU to have control of their respective economic areas. . Doesn't have to be a hard border but can't be a No Deal Free For All. So it's not just the EU "rules".

[PortLouis1996]

How can control of an economic area be achieved without a border?

[bellinisurge]

You can do it with almost but not quite invisible technology. It's tbe not quite that is the problem. Until technological solutions are available, an NI only backstop would allow this fudge. It was TM's fault we had an all-uk backstop.

[bellinisurge]

You can do it with almost but not quite invisible technology. It's tbe not quite that is the problem. Until technological solutions are available, an NI only backstop would allow this fudge. It was TM's fault we had an all-uk backstop.

[PortLouis1996]

TMs decision to buy DUP to obtain a majority in 2017 came back to haunt her.

Are DUP afraid that if NI was made a special economic zone it might be a step closer towards a united Ireland?

[bellinisurge]

Yes. And they don't cars if everything goes to shit.