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Brecon by-election

(28 Posts)
Oakenbeach Thu 01-Aug-19 19:26:50

I think today’s vote is critically important in determining how Brexit plays out.... LDs remain odds-on favourites, but with BJ apparently enjoying a bounce as many Brexit Party supporters are tempted back, it’s no certainty. The outcome could well determine how Brexit plays out and the future of this country for the next decade or more.... it really is that important!

1) If Tories win, then it’s almost assured we’ll have a no-deal. If the LDs can’t win in these circumstances in this seat, the chances of the Tories winning an autumn GE seem very high, and if I were contemplating a VONC, I’d definitely have second thoughts. A no-deal is bad enough, a no-deal followed by 5 years of BJ is horrifying... This would crush Remainer spirits...

2) LDs win between 0 and 10%.... They’ll get positive news stories from it, but they’ll be a bit disappointed deep down, and the prospects for being serious contenders for many seats somewhat dented.

3) LDs win by between 10 and 20%.... LDs would be happy with this. A solid victory which sets them up well moving forward. Tories would worry, thinking that their vote could well not be strong enough in a GE. It may even cause a softening of their approach.

4) LDs win by over 20%... LDs would be ecstatic and Tories deeply worried. If they lost like this even after a BJ bounce, then what are their prospects. It would embolden potential Tories prepared to vote down the Government. The Tories lose the ensuing GE and a new Government is installed with a significant LD component. Brexit unravels and A50 is revoked in 2020.

Which will it be? No predictions from me... I’ll only jinx it.

bellinisurge Thu 01-Aug-19 19:55:41

Don't want to jinx it either. Hope for a convincing LD win.

ScarlettOHarasWaist Thu 01-Aug-19 20:25:36

This is a two party race here, Liberal Democrats or Conservative.
Stupid decision by the Conservative party to endorse a criminally thick person. Visit by Boris this week to a business here, the workers had to leave their stations to go and meet and greet. Not a good move.
The Liberal Democrat's have conducted an extraordinarily aggressive campaign, to the point of intrusion.
Constant phone calls on people's personal mobile numbers. If left unanswered then calls to landlines. To people that have never given their mobile number to the Lib Dem's
Several visits per week by all of the Party campaigners. Being harangued in shopping centres. Being chased in the street by various Political campaigners.
I'm sick of all of this, it's been going on for weeks.
If the Tories win, then the Lib Dem aggressive campaigners will have lost it for themselves.
People will always have their own idea as to how they will vote. Constant harassment to vote a certain way will usually put peoples backs up.

Oakenbeach Thu 01-Aug-19 20:38:12

The Liberal Democrat's have conducted an extraordinarily aggressive campaign, to the point of intrusion. Constant phone calls on people's personal mobile numbers. If left unanswered then calls to landlines

Not a good move... I never really get phone calls from campaigners - it would piss me right off to be harassed in that way!

jasjas1973 Thu 01-Aug-19 20:54:42

It won't matter, in regard to a no-deal brexit, once we leave the EU, thats it, another 5 10 or 15 years of BJ is immaterial.

Cons still have a majority of 1 and that's all it takes.

ScarlettOHarasWaist Thu 01-Aug-19 22:04:35

Yes @Oakenbeach, I've complained to the Lib Dem HQ. At the risk of sounding tin foil hat nutter here. There are about a dozen of us and the only thing we have in common is that we all drink in the same pub. We all have each other's mobile number and not one of us has given permission for the Lib Dem's to contact us.
Lib Dem HQ's response was this doesn't happen and you must have given your number to us or you've given your number to a company that sells phone numbers on. I haven't and I don't give my number out.
Outside of my polling station there were people telling me that "they just need my voting number" they don't need it, they might want my number but I know I don't have to give it to them.
In Brecon, we've had enough harassment from all of them, I'm in a few Facebook groups for Brecon and the surrounding area and all day my Facebook feed has been filled with ticking clocks by the Labour Party, total waste of money, this constituency will never be Labour.
It's a rural area and too far away from the valleys for Labour to ever win.
We've had supposedly personal letters addressed to us by by hand by our First names and surname, at the last count it was 6, every day we've had flyers for each party posted, so many bloody flyers, the recycling bins are full of pointless flyers.

bellinisurge Thu 01-Aug-19 22:09:32

Complain about them to the Information Commissioner. They get really noisy about stunts like that.

ScarlettOHarasWaist Thu 01-Aug-19 23:23:01

Thanks bellinisurge
I'll do that because each and every Party's campaign has been extraordinarily intrusive here.

Alislia17 Fri 02-Aug-19 04:22:40

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

CrunchyCarrot Fri 02-Aug-19 06:09:25

At last, a sliver of good news! Lib Dems take Brecon with a majority of 1,425 votes, giving Johnson only a one seat majority. grin

Labour beaten into fourth place by the Brexit Party, and UKIP placed last after the Monster Raving Loony Party.

CrunchyCarrot Fri 02-Aug-19 06:10:33

The results here:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

EmmaGrundyForPM Fri 02-Aug-19 06:17:22

I'm pleased that the Tory majority has been cut again but the Tories only lost because the vote was split - if the Brexit Party hadn't stood then the Tories would almost certainly have won. Conversely, as Jo Swinson has acknowledged, the LibDem vote was boosted by the fact that Plaid cymru and The Green Party agreed not to contest the seat. I dont think this necessarily shows dissatisfaction with BJ.

BlackeyedGruesome Fri 02-Aug-19 09:01:02

Apparently, it is the people holding the Conservatives feet to the fire to make sure they leave... According to a commentator on radio 4.

jasjas1973 Fri 02-Aug-19 09:32:50

@EmmaGrundyForPM

You do not know that the voters who still went for the Brexit party would have voted Tory, they may have gone ukip, you'd have to have pretty extreme views to still go BXP instead of BJ's Con party.

If a new PM cannot keep a seat that previously had a 8000 majority, then yes i would say that is a big thumbs down on his Brexit policy.

Maybe the people of Radnor realise that once they lose the EU market for Lamb, they wont get that back and farmers don't farm sheep only for it to end up in landfill or on a bonfire.

I still don't think this is going to change Tory policy though but it might make it easier for the HoC to block no-deal.

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 09:59:38

Taken together, the number of Tory and Brexit Party votes show a pretty strong mandate for leave I’m afraid.

anothernotherone Fri 02-Aug-19 13:44:10

Does anyone know what should happen if the conservatives lose their majority in the next couple of weeks? I read that 5 or 6 Conservative MPs are in negotiations to deflect to the Liberal democrats.

anothernotherone Fri 02-Aug-19 13:47:17

Dongdingdong not everyone voting Conservative is voting on a single issue. There are still lots of voters who support conservative policies on tax etc and are uncommited either way or mildly anti but not especially bothered about Brexit.

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 13:54:21

Still - I don't think you'd vote Tory if you were vehemently anti-Brexit, especially now arch leaver Boris is PM. If Boris had done a pact with the Brexit party they'd have won this by-election by several thousand.

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 13:57:10

Also, god only knows why the Tories chose an MP convicted of expenses fraud to stand in this election. Did they really expect him to win?

InTheHeatofLisbon Fri 02-Aug-19 14:01:01

Taken together, the number of Tory and Brexit Party votes show a pretty strong mandate for leave I’m afraid.

And there I thought only the winning votes were relevant. It's what we've been battered over the head with for the last 3 fucking years!

The Brecon by election and the recent European elections noted a massive shift in public opinion. Aye the Brecon one is localised, but the European elections weren't!

3 years ago the Lib Dems were nowhere after that disastrous coalition, now all of a sudden they're a prospect?

But aye, the losing parties denote a mandate to leave. If ye say so.

jasjas1973 Fri 02-Aug-19 14:10:19

If Boris had done a pact with the Brexit party they'd have won this by-election by several thousand

If if if... anyone who is still supporting the BXP may well not support the Tories, more likely to have voted UKIP, the bottom line is that the LibDems won, i may as well argue that had Labour stood aside, their votes would have gone LD.

However, a new PM, especially one who is supposed to be as popular as BJ says he is, should have walked this election.

EngTech Fri 02-Aug-19 14:18:17

We could always ask for another vote as the result apparently was the wrong one 😎😎

People voted, it is called democracy

Strong possibility that a GE beckons, like it or not 😬😬

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 14:22:19

However, a new PM, especially one who is supposed to be as popular as BJ says he is, should have walked this election.

Rubbish. You do realise this seat was Lib Dem for almost 20 years before the Tories won it last time? The Conservatives were never expected to win, although they'd have stood more of a chance if they'd chosen a different candidate.

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 14:22:57

Strong possibility that a GE beckons, like it or not

I think a general election would be a good thing personally.

Dongdingdong Fri 02-Aug-19 14:24:04

3 years ago the Lib Dems were nowhere after that disastrous coalition, now all of a sudden they're a prospect?

They're only a prospect because of Corbyn's flip-flopping. If Labour were to come out as 100% remain the Lib Dems would be history (again).

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