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Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

(967 Posts)
RedToothBrush Thu 25-Jul-19 16:22:50

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

DGRossetti Thu 25-Jul-19 16:24:29

www.facebook.com/veryBrexitproblems/videos/347623512816246/

Bercows Thu 25-Jul-19 16:25:39

Let's hope the bots don't follow us. Thanks red smile

placemats Thu 25-Jul-19 16:29:02

This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

I have to disagree with this. There are Trojan horses within the Conservative Party. The Leave Campaign relies SOLELY on the Brexit Party, and Johnson knows this. If there is a GE then it WILL be the end of the Conservative Party.

The Labour Party is in opposition and can't seem to ditch the Tenna Man pants.

Songsofexperience Thu 25-Jul-19 16:29:03

Let the bots follow us so I can show them the finger. On both hands.

tobee Thu 25-Jul-19 16:29:23

Thanks Red.

I wish for going in back in time. So that makes me pretty useless. sad

dreichhighlands Thu 25-Jul-19 16:30:19

Thanks Red.
I wish people would stop believing in stuff and actually look at facts.

derxa Thu 25-Jul-19 16:31:08

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.
Yes Red and today I feel truly afraid. I'm usually optimistic but your summary has put the fear of God in me. What can we do? They're all a bunch of self serving bastards.

Hasenstein Thu 25-Jul-19 16:31:36

Thanks, Red, for keeping up the good work.

Songsofexperience Thu 25-Jul-19 16:31:46

Haha, facts, what is that?! No one needs facts in politics!

Myriade Thu 25-Jul-19 16:32:45

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess

Yep I fully agree with you there sad
I also think we are now dealing with an extreme right wing government, which arrived with no election at all. Add to that the previous preparations for No Deal that included using the army to manage civil unrest... I think its scary. VERY scary.
And I cant believe that no one yet has cottoned out what is happening and how dangerous those waters are.

But yes no concession on any side, remain or brexit was all worth it. politics before the country and a "Im right" position until the other side gives in was the best way possible to deal with a 50/50 split that has tore politicians and the country.

I was nearly getting optimistic a few months ago thinkig that maybe there was some sort of picture coming out, ne where common sense would prevail.
Instead, I predict we will see a mass of sheep just not daring going against 'the party leader' and falling back into ranks.

ListeningQuietly Thu 25-Jul-19 16:32:57

Belief does not get lorries through customs

OublietteBravo Thu 25-Jul-19 16:34:26

PMK on this hot, hot day.

Songsofexperience Thu 25-Jul-19 16:35:32

Look, there's no choice: we have to see what no deal is like. Public opinion will change soon enough.
My real worry is a slide down towards actually dictatorship. Don't scoff. The shock and awe doctrine can't really work in a genuine democracy.

Myriade Thu 25-Jul-19 16:36:52

I think BJ relies on giving a united view from the Conservative party, which hasnt happened for months/year, loking decisive and thinking that people will just fall back into their usual voting patterns in the grounds that voters avoided the Tories because of the dittering.
If you add a nice layer of finding a scapegoat (what will it be this time, the EU, foreigners etc,,,?) and another layer of lies (such as we will save the NHS), i wouldnt be suroried if people were following him tbh.

That is IF it happens before brexit day. If it happen AFTERWARDS, then anything can ahppen as it will depend lot on how hard people will be hit by the No Deal

Songsofexperience Thu 25-Jul-19 16:37:21

I want to stay in this country forever- except if we get a British Pinochet.

Myriade Thu 25-Jul-19 16:38:09

@Songsofexperience, yes I fully agree with re dictatorship.
and i wish people were waking up to that because the last few years (even befire brexit) have all but a ramp up towards that.

placemats Thu 25-Jul-19 16:40:11

Johnson and Co (sounds like a removal company), may well be happy to break up the Conservative Party, but this only serves to unite those to Remain.

Tis a non win, win win, non win compromise that faces this removal company.

RedToothBrush Thu 25-Jul-19 16:42:26

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
So what just happened with @BorisJohnson
#Brexit statement?

My take as follows....

tldr; we are heading for a general election. Here's why...

1/Thread

Let's start with what Johnson said:

He wants a deal, but only on his terms.
The stump speech has made it to the dispatch box.
This is a big defeat for the Geoffrey Cox "surgical changes" brigade. /2
<<<<<

Note the very hard edge here.
We'll talk "on this basis".
So no running to Brussels.
You come to us, pal. Or should that be 'mes amis'? /3

In the meantime, the plan will be to ramp up the 'no deal' preparations in the hope that the EU cracks.
But I cannot see this happening, not on this basis. /4

So by the same token, the EU will also watch and wait.
[Which is good news for those of us who booked holidays in August]
And let the pressure build back on Mr Johnson./5

Who, when the EU doesn't crack, will in turn ramp up his own 'no deal' rhetoric....
...as the reality of a 'no deal' starts to pile up on his desk.
Because, as @instituteforgov sets out here, 'no deal' preps are a total mess. /6
<<<<

It is notable that @michaelgove is in charge of 'no deal' preps; notable also that he was very tepid about 'no deal' consequences since he'd worked in a department (agriculture) where he was forced to grapple with reality.

Johnson will too. On trade, on Northern Ireland etc. /7
At which point, as Johnson goes the 'full 'no deal', then Parliament steps in to stop it happening - is my bet - and privately Johnson Team will be happy to be saved from 'no deal', while outwards OUTRAGED that Parliament is blocking the 'will of the people'. /8

That phrase, the 'will of the people' was there in the Downing Street statement and it will keep coming back.
And as 'no deal' is blocked, step forward Dominic Cummings....to fight a "TELL THEM AGAIN" election. /9

It will be bitterly divisive, but already too late to stop that.
Will be very interesting to see on what terms Johnson Tories deal with @Nigel_Farage @brexitparty_uk /10

^You could see this almost as a reprise of what @theresa_may
did.^
Make a load contradictory over-promises, end up in a General Election.
And then, with a majority in place, get the job done. /11

I don't know how far ahead they've really thought, but I think all the signs - reading between lines of @Policy_Exchange @ShankerASingham report on Alternative Arrangements is some kind of NI-only deal on animal/SPS with an FTA for GB. /12

And with a majority and the boil lanced, maybe it is possible to be more realistic about some key stuff..
- that u need a deal with EU before doing deals with others, in practice.
- that an EU FTA comes with lots of alignment (that might help in NI issue) /13

But that is all a long way down the tracks....the immediate strategy seems to be a 'no deal' plan - which for my money is really just a General Election plan thinly disguised. Otherwise, why hire Cummings?

It's a People's Vote, just not as they imagined it! 14/ENDS

I don't entirely agree with this, but its not a million miles from where I am.

DGRossetti Thu 25-Jul-19 16:45:40

My real worry is a slide down towards actually dictatorship. Don't scoff. The shock and awe doctrine can't really work in a genuine democracy.

I know it's become something of a hobby horse, but growing up I can distinctly remember any Republican sentiment I had was trumped by everyone sagely telling me that we were immune to dictators because we had a Monarch who had the powers to stop that.

I thought it was a crock then, and I do now.

The only - and it's small, but extreme times have a habit of changing perspective - consolation will be the surprised on the Monarchs face (and I'm wondering if we are now in a waiting game for Charles to step up) as they are locked up. Initially for their own safety, and then permanently.

And, yes, it is the plot of "Homeland S6" adapted for the UK ...

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 25-Jul-19 16:45:55

It beggars belief that it's now the summer recess.

prettybird Thu 25-Jul-19 16:45:57

I'm going to have to take some more regal cat positioning pictures wink

Here's one of them enjoying the sun grin

I do love my country - but I don't think it is "superior" to other countries (in the arrogant sense of the word). I just feel proud of it. (NB: I'm referring of course to Scotland. I don't feel proud of the UK sad)

Songsofexperience Thu 25-Jul-19 16:47:04

Very good post RTB and again, here's why this summer's priority is for Labour to sort itself out!

RedToothBrush Thu 25-Jul-19 16:48:42

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
💥 Boris Johnson set to hire Chloe Westley from the Taxpayers' Alliance as his digital adviser in No10. Former Vote Leave campaigner and pro-Brexit talking head who you will know from your TV screens

tobee Thu 25-Jul-19 16:49:01

Cats!

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