Page 7 | Is anything going to get cheaper after, assuming it happens, Brexit?

(165 Posts)
frozendaisy Fri 19-Jul-19 17:00:07

Parking the utter disaster that is Westminster at the moment:

With unpredictable weather patterns and a weakening pound one can only assume that almost everything is going to get more expensive. Is anything going to get cheaper do you think? We are not on the breadline but at some point, if predictions and the effects of a weakened pound it's going to start hitting everyone where it hurts in the wallet surely?

OP’s posts: |
sionnachbeag Mon 22-Jul-19 21:48:08

Not my figure. However i would trust HMRC over brexit economists.

The cost of trade would increase through ntb red tape and it would be significant.

Blinkingblimey Mon 22-Jul-19 22:05:42

🤣so sorry, total thread derail, but I’ve been through FOUR Dysons in 20 years (why I kept flogging the dead horse god only knows!!🤦🏼‍♀️)... UTTER SHIT..... if you want quality & longevity buy Miele.....my opinions on Brexit amusingly concur!!

Havanananana Mon 22-Jul-19 22:50:11

Are the £20bn customs costs speculation?
That's the figure from the HMRC report to government.

You were not aware then, that the head of HMRC had 'double counted' and included EU customs costs in his 'speculation'? He wrote to Nicky Morgan on 4 June 2018 clarifying this

OK - the cost to the UK will be £10bn (remember, the UK only pays £9bn to the EU each year ) and the cost to the EU importers will be another £10bn.

At which point the EU importers will say ' thanks, but we can buy the same products from other suppliers, and if these are in the EU we collectively save ourselves £10bn in admin costs alone (and have no border delays, or certification issues).'

The UK has the best deal imaginable - £4 a week per person for access to the richest trading bloc in the world, (and now also Japan and Mercosur) - and it is being thrown away by fantasists and fanatics who label every opinion other than their own as 'Project Fear' or even just 'Speculation'

jasjas1973 Tue 23-Jul-19 07:23:30

40 FTAs and 70 countries.... we lose all but 12 in a no deal BJ Brexit, countries are just not willing to roll over agreements and not on the same terms either.

We can argue whether its 20 or 10 billion (just in paper work) but the reality is that its going to cost us jobs and living standards and after 3 years no one, not even Clavinova and her excellent links can tell us what the benefits are or will be.

I think Brexit is going to be a big fat wake up call as to where we sit in the world order.

sionnachbeag Tue 23-Jul-19 07:33:08

Clavs link about Mini seems to forget that without frictionless access to the EU that stops.

The drive trains are built on the continent.

Peregrina Tue 23-Jul-19 08:02:45

I think Brexit is going to be a big fat wake up call as to where we sit in the world order.

Which might in the end be a good thing, but it won't be 'sorted in an afternoon' and be part of 'the easiest deals in history'.

TigerCubScout Tue 23-Jul-19 08:05:27

Even if we Brexit with a deal surely loads of trade deals stop the day we leave. We would have a transition period/trade deal with the EU itself. But any other country that has agreed a trade deal with the EU hasn't got one with us independently, I assume. So unless they agree to 'roll over' the trade deal (if it is indeed as easy as that) surely we go to WTO with them on day 1.

Peregrina Tue 23-Jul-19 08:24:47

I think one of the worst things which will happen is that we won't know which laws are in operation. Take the reciprocal arrangements for updating pensions and recovering health care costs for pensioners abroad. At the moment for citizens resident in the EU they are uprated in line with UK ones, and health care costs incurred by e.g. Spain can be reclaimed. Imagine if no one thinks of the legislation in question and the first people find out is when the expected pension increase doesn't happen.

Clavinova Tue 23-Jul-19 11:08:11

Havanananana
OK-the cost to the UK will be £10bn (remember, the UK only pays £9bn to the EU each year) and the cost to the EU importers will be another £10bn.

Except that some economists are saying £1-£2bn, not £10bn - the extra admin costs will reduce over time in any case - EU budget contributions are due to increase in 2020.

sionnachbeag
Clavs link about Mini seems to forget that without frictionless access to the EU that stops. The drive trains are built on the continent.

Mini is owned by German car maker BMW, and the drive trains appear to be made in Bavaria. Why would a German car maker invest millions of pounds in the UK if they were overly worried about JIT? They obviously know something we don't - either they think the delays have been exaggerated, or they will be limited to Dover, and they have no intention of importing car parts via Dover.They have probably obtained assurances from the UK government that car parts will remain at 0% on the temporary tariff regime as well.

Clavinova Tue 23-Jul-19 11:23:06

jasjas
40 FTAs and 70 countries....we lose all but 12 in a no deal BJ Brexit, countries are just not willing to roll over agreements and not on the same terms either.

Those 12 deals appear to cover 40 of the 70 countries mentioned - as some of the deals cover regions and not just individual countries;

18 July 2019 "The UK has signed continuity trade agreements with non-EU countries so that trade can continue with minimal disruption after the UK leaves the EU."

"These countries account for 63% of trade currently covered by EU agreements for which the UK is seeking continuity."

"The agreements have replicated the EU trade agreements as far as possible.However, there may be some changes to ensure that new agreements work for both countries."

www.gov.uk/guidance/signed-uk-trade-agreements-transitioned-from-the-eu

Clavinova Tue 23-Jul-19 11:30:45

12 of the remaining countries are listed as accounting for 0% of total UK trade, 2018, e.g. Moldova and Albania;

www.gov.uk/government/publications/existing-trade-agreements-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-without-a-deal/existing-trade-agreements-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-without-a-deal

jasjas1973 Tue 23-Jul-19 13:57:46

An awful lot of "engagement on going" in that lis.

...and % of trade is of 2018, Japan and Canada would have only just started.

As i said, no-deal is going to cost us all, 12 deals rolled over, 28 not, even if some are not applicable.

But if we all believe then everything will turn out well, as Stanley Johnson just said "we faced really challenges in 1939" yes Stan but we didn't vote for WW2 did we?

jasjas1973 Tue 23-Jul-19 13:58:18

@real

Peregrina Tue 23-Jul-19 17:33:16

Who are we at war with now? Well, maybe Iran soon, because we have been egged on by the US.

lljkk Tue 23-Jul-19 20:04:18

South Korea took shots at the Russians today. Fun and Games. (sigh)

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