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Will Boris lose a “vote of no confidence” this autumn?....

(28 Posts)
Oakenbeach Sat 13-Jul-19 13:11:01

There are various permutations here, but i’m going to assume that it’s September the road to no-deal...

Assuming the LDs win Brecon by-election (they’re 1:5 odds on
currently so a reasonable assumption), I believe the Tories would have an effective majority of just two....

Clarke and Grieve have said they’d vote down the Government in such circumstances.... Just those two would be enough if all non-Tories supported it, but would they?

I think Kate Hoey is the most likely not to.... she voted against TMs deal for the same reason the Tory Brexit ultras did, so arguably is more fanatical than even JRM (who grudgingly voted for it third time round). Besides she’s standing down at the next election so she has nothing to lose.... There are various other Labour Brexiteers, but I don’t believe any are as hardline as her, and Lexiters are generally very opposed to no-deal....and besides, they’ll want re-election (well, Skinner may not, but there’s no way on earth he’d prop up the Tories!)

That makes it a tie..... As for independents.... I think they would all
Vote down the Government too. Nick Boles is the one I’d be least confident of, but it’s difficult to see him propping up a BJ Government in such circumstances.

Apparently there are a dozen or so Tories in total who have indicated they may rebel in such circumstances... I have less confirthsnnindis that all would, but it would just take one or two ( Lee or Greening) for. VONC to pass.

On balance, I think Boris would lose.... Any thoughts on this welcome!

OP’s posts: |
Peregrina Tue 23-Jul-19 08:34:40

It appears I was wrong and there may well be a small number of Labour MPs who wouldn’t vote down the Government in a VONC. Sarah Champion had been off my radar before now.

Except in the last vote, it was only Kate Hoey who rebelled and voted with the Government. She will soon be Brexit party anyway. It will be interesting to see if Johnson can claw back the votes from the Tory wing of the Brexit party.

Oakenbeach Tue 23-Jul-19 15:19:53

Except in the last vote, it was only Kate Hoey who rebelled and voted with the Government. She will soon be Brexit party anyway. It will be interesting to see if Johnson can claw back the votes from the Tory wing of the Brexit party.

But supporting a measure that would stop Parliament being prorogued is rather different to supporting the Government in a vote that enable
to deliver Brexit (albeit a no-deal one).

OP’s posts: |
urbanlife Fri 26-Jul-19 06:29:45

Clearly that didn't work out. Boris has made an astounding start, finally someone is in the driving seat.

The tory party will not vote down Boris, and in addition many leave labour MPs will not vote against him. So I would say a vote of no confidence is a non starter. In any event it would only pave the way for a GE, and there is no time for a GE before we leave.

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