Will Boris lose a “vote of no confidence” this autumn?....

[Oakenbeach]

There are various permutations here, but i’m going to assume that it’s September the road to no-deal...

Assuming the LDs win Brecon by-election (they’re 1:5 odds on
currently so a reasonable assumption), I believe the Tories would have an effective majority of just two....

Clarke and Grieve have said they’d vote down the Government in such circumstances.... Just those two would be enough if all non-Tories supported it, but would they?

I think Kate Hoey is the most likely not to.... she voted against TMs deal for the same reason the Tory Brexit ultras did, so arguably is more fanatical than even JRM (who grudgingly voted for it third time round). Besides she’s standing down at the next election so she has nothing to lose.... There are various other Labour Brexiteers, but I don’t believe any are as hardline as her, and Lexiters are generally very opposed to no-deal....and besides, they’ll want re-election (well, Skinner may not, but there’s no way on earth he’d prop up the Tories!)

That makes it a tie..... As for independents.... I think they would all
Vote down the Government too. Nick Boles is the one I’d be least confident of, but it’s difficult to see him propping up a BJ Government in such circumstances.

Apparently there are a dozen or so Tories in total who have indicated they may rebel in such circumstances... I have less confirthsnnindis that all would, but it would just take one or two ( Lee or Greening) for. VONC to pass.

On balance, I think Boris would lose.... Any thoughts on this welcome!

[Whisky2014]

I think there's a good chance, yes.

[Whisky2014]

I think there's a majority of 3 btw Including the dup but if the backstop issue isn't resolved well...would they vote for him?

Doubt it.

[bellinisurge]

Please call him Johnson. Boris makes him sound like some fun media personality.

[Finfintytint]

Or try Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

[Oakenbeach]

Please call him Johnson. Boris makes him sound like some fun media personality.

Fair point

[Oakenbeach]

I think there's a majority of 3 btw Including the dup but if the backstop issue isn't resolved well...would they vote for him?

I think there’s a distinct possibility that Johnson will bring a deal back to the House, one that’s only cosmetically different, but sold as being a “breakthrough”. It’s possible that, this time, enough Labour MPs will support the Government and that enough ERG types will fall in line for it to pass.

However, the DUP won’t be duped by the “smoke and mirrors”, and neither will the hardest of the Brexit Tory Hardcore MPs. Farage will certainly cry “foul”. Would the DUP continue to support such a Government?

[1tisILeClerc]

I think they should toss* for it.
Most of them seem well qualified to manage this.

*coin or other techniques.

[ilovesooty]

I sincerely hope so.

[MockerstheFeManist]

I think they should toss* for it.
Most of them seem well qualified to manage this.
*coin or other techniques.

...Aaaah, the 'Biscuit Game.'
Sounds like a better way to choose a PM than leaving it to the Tory Party members, going by the reports on votes in.

But wouldn't you just love the No-Confidence vote to be a tie, then Bercow is supposed to support the Govt, but probably won't.

[jasjas1973]

Under the FTPA, he has 14 days before the next vote, plenty of time to win over the necessary votes.

Any GE could result in a significant number of BXP MPs, not something i'd want.
Labour need to become a full on anti brexit party c/w a different leader to ensure the Cons lose any chance of staying in power, otherwise they could, poss via a coalition with Farage.

[BigChocFrenzy]

"I think they should toss for it."

Yes, that's within the skill set of this bunch of tossers

[BigChocFrenzy]

Farage's track record in both UKIP & NewKIP is that his party organisation is great at campaigns in the 11 GB regions for European Parliament elections,

but is hopeless when it comes to campaigns in anywhere near the 650 Westminster seats

In 7 tries, he hasn't even managed to get himself elected as an MP

[MockerstheFeManist]

Kippers were always bad at candidate selction. Cameron's jibe about "Fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" was aimed at the voters but would have been an accurate description of the prospective MPs, apart from the bit about the closet.

[Jsmith99]

No, because turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

There might be a handful of Tories who would vote to bring down their own government, but they would have to be in a position where they had nothing to lose. I doubt there would be enough of them.

[Oakenbeach]

There might be a handful of Tories who would vote to bring down their own government, but they would have to be in a position where they had nothing to lose. I doubt there would be enough of them.

But the majority is 3 (assuming LDs with Brecon by-election) so theoretically just 2 are needed... and 2 have nothing to lose and have declared they will!

[TheEmpireNoMore]

A vote of no confidence could result in a GE, but would that not result in a coalition government of Brexit Party and Conservatives?

[NoWordForFluffy]

Any Tory MP who's standing down at the next election or feels that they're likely to lose their seat in any event is probably fair game. I think the VoNC would potentially succeed.

But don't forget that the winner of the Tory leadership battle has to persuade the Queen that he can command a majority in the House initially. It's that which is more interesting if the DUP withdraw support at that stage.

[ChiaraRimini]

The Brexit Party will split the rabid right wing vote and Labour/Tory remainers will be strongly tempted to defect to Lib Dem's. I think this could be the Lib Dem's strongest chance in a long time to do well in a GE

[Oakenbeach]

The Brexit Party will split the rabid right wing vote and Labour/Tory remainers will be strongly tempted to defect to Lib Dem's. I think this could be the Lib Dem's strongest chance in a long time to do well in a GE

Absolutely, as I’ve stated previously, I believe a pre-Brexit GE, with the Tories having to form some kind of alliance with the Brexit Party, will be highly beneficial to the LDs, especially as Remain parties seem to be getting their act together by cooperating.

[Oakenbeach]

A vote of no confidence could result in a GE, but would that not result in a coalition government of Brexit Party and Conservatives?

We can’t be sure....but, assuming a deal isn’t passed (based on recent news that 40+ Tories are pledging to vote against any deal with only cosmetic changes, this now seems unlikely), and that BJ is true to his word of leaving on 31st Oct, (which he has to be if the Tories aren’t to be finished), then either we have:

a) no VONC, and a certainty of a no-deal Brexit, or
b) a VONC, and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit should the election go well for the Tories/Brexit Party.

I’d go for the hope b) offers any day.

[Oakenbeach]

I should add a “successful” VONC

[Oakenbeach]

This appears to make a successful VONC more likely!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/politics/guto-bebb-boris-johnson-disastrous-brexit-no-deal-video-wales/amp/

[Oakenbeach]

And with this article, the odds lengthen... It appears I was wrong and there may well be a small number of Labour MPs who wouldn’t vote down the Government in a VONC. Sarah Champion had been off my radar before now.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/labour-mps-who-want-brexit-deal-are-mess-their-own-making#amp

[Triglesoffy]

I’m clutching at straws and hoping the Tory membership has seen the light and votes in JH. #AnyoneButBoris

[Peregrina]

It appears I was wrong and there may well be a small number of Labour MPs who wouldn’t vote down the Government in a VONC. Sarah Champion had been off my radar before now.

Except in the last vote, it was only Kate Hoey who rebelled and voted with the Government. She will soon be Brexit party anyway. It will be interesting to see if Johnson can claw back the votes from the Tory wing of the Brexit party.