Labour split remain vote

(23 Posts)
TheEmpireNoMore Thu 11-Jul-19 02:22:09

The polls got the split between leave and remain correct prior to the 2016 referendum, but wrong way round.

Polls are correct the reader sees the result they want and wrong when the readers sees the result they don't want.

whymewhynow Wed 10-Jul-19 21:04:46

You can't have looked very hard, Sunshine. Here is a poll of polls that now gives Remain 52%, or this wiki page gives you every significant poll since the referendum and there's only one that places Leave ahead in the past year, that's one in about 75 polls and there were only a handful of Leave winning polls the year before too.
<awaits predictable response of: "Polls don't mean anything" hmm>

Sunshine1239 Wed 10-Jul-19 20:51:07


Sunshine1239 Wed 10-Jul-19 20:50:58

Most voters want remain?

There hasn’t been a single pool that’s put remain ahead of leave as far as I’ve seen 🤔

1tisILeClerc Wed 10-Jul-19 17:18:58

IIRC from the original poll data the split was fairly even with about 6% or so difference between sex in the various age ranges except women over 60? being rather more remainy, but younger men being more 'leavy'.
The main problem is that a few percent either way has been 'spun' to claim that the difference was massive, hence the '80% want to leave' which is rather different to reality.

Tavannach Wed 10-Jul-19 17:08:46

It is estimated that 60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.

Not mainly Labour voters though, I thought?

Is it old working white men in their cloth caps that are Brexiteers?
I thought it was White Van Man and the "casuals" from football stadia in the 80s.

TheEmpireNoMore Wed 10-Jul-19 09:45:06

They can't give the first group what they want without alienating the second

That's why the are sliding down the pole (poll). It is estimated that 60% of Labour constituencies voted leave. Big gamble for Labour to become a remain party.

Peregrina Wed 10-Jul-19 08:49:34

Corbyn has to decide who matters most to him - the vote of elderly mostly males who once worked in heavy industry, in their 'heartlands', or the numbers of teachers, social workers, other public sector workers who would also vote Labour normally and are spread across the country. They can't give the first group what they want without alienating the second.

bellinisurge Wed 10-Jul-19 06:51:30

I briefly, do briefly, wondered if this "announcement " was enough to get me back to Labour to stop No Deal. Nope. Red weasel words instead of blue ones. Dump Corbyn for someone like Cooper and I'll think about it.

Tavannach Wed 10-Jul-19 03:23:16

Labour has lost over 100,000 members.
They are 4th in the polls.
There's a general election in the near future.
Most people support Remain.
All of these factors will help concentrate MPs focus on keeping their seats.
Also they understand a) that Johnson is deranged and b) that No Deal is a disaster that it would take decades to recover from at best.

TheEmpireNoMore Wed 10-Jul-19 03:08:40

JC is still on the fence.

Wants to take No Deal off the table, but does not seem to be able to say what the Labour Brexit policy would be if they were to win the next GE.

Peregrina Tue 09-Jul-19 19:17:48

Has Corbyn got himself impaled on that fence? He's been there so long. Shouldn't he get someone to call the Fire Brigade to free him?

bellinisurge Tue 09-Jul-19 18:05:38

Up to you. If it's not "we are for Remain in all circumstances ", it's not Remain.

crankysaurus Tue 09-Jul-19 16:05:44

My understanding is that if they get elected they would push for their brexit without a confirmatory vote. If they don't get elected they'll push for remain. Have I got this right because it appears they want remainers to not vote for them?

Oakenbeach Tue 09-Jul-19 15:59:57

Do you think that Labour putting their backing to the remain view would split the remain vote between Lib Dems and Greens ?

But they haven’t put their backing to remain... it’s all smoke and mirrors. You need to read beneath the headline.

Peregrina Tue 09-Jul-19 15:35:05

So if they won the GE, having fought on a Remain ticket, they then decide that they must support Leave. If that doesn't destroy any Remainer Labour support, I don't know what would.

It was bad enough last time being told that 80% of people voted for parties which supported Leave.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Tue 09-Jul-19 15:26:11

Labour stance on Brexit, which I probably don’t. They aren’t properly Remain.

They are Remain instead of a no deal or Tory Brexit. It’s an appalling fudge.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Tue 09-Jul-19 15:25:09

If I understand the Labour s

bellinisurge Tue 09-Jul-19 15:14:18

There is being bested and being annihilated. I wonder if that is a factor. @NoBaggyPants .
There isn't a commitment to a no-Brexit platform in a GE

NoBaggyPants Tue 09-Jul-19 14:46:05

@bellinisurge It's nothing to do with the by election. Brecon has been Lib Dem or Tories since the 1970s, there's no expectation that will change.

Peregrina Tue 09-Jul-19 14:28:42

In some seats LibDems/Greens are so far behind in terms of votes, so the Labour party getting off the fence properly and coming out for Remain would give them a chance to beat the current batshit Tory party.

bellinisurge Tue 09-Jul-19 14:09:08

Nope. It's fudge. And Corbyn is still in charge. They are worried about getting pasted in the by-election.

billysboy Tue 09-Jul-19 14:06:05

Do you think that Labour putting their backing to the remain view would split the remain vote between Lib Dems and Greens ?

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