Can anyone tell me why the DUP are so hellbent on Brexit....(225 Posts)
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.... even if that means we crash out in 31 October? It seems to make no sense for a party whose overriding top priority and raison d’etre is the remain in the UK... Don’t they see this that a no-deal Brexit is the biggest threat to the union for NI in a century? It seems totally insane, far more so even than the mainland British no-dealers! What am I missing?
A united Ireland at this stage could be very problematic.
I find the DUP and their support baffling. I have a DUP MP and live in quite a sensible area but people still vote tribally.
but people still vote tribally
So it is a historical issue that has become "we have always voted this way"
Like the mining villages in North East of UK where I am from. They vote Labour by tradition, but voted leave at the same time.
@LifeContinues , seriously, you don't know?
OK, here it is : while obviously in theory Ireland would like NI back, people in Ireland are wary about a) the financial cost of being (re)unification and b) the social cost including the risk of violence. How do I know this? Well, apart from personal knowledge of being half Irish, the evidence is in the fact that , as part of GFA, the people of Ireland changed their constitution so that they no longer have a territorial claim on NI. This constitutional change was made via a referendum - as all constitutional changes are in Irish law. A properly constructed legally binding referendum, not the X-Factor esque one we had in 2016.
The priority for Ireland is peace and prosperity in NI. If there was a poll in NI on (re)unification with Ireland, it wouldn't happen unless Ireland also voted for it. Naturally it is pretty unlikely that of NI wanted it, Ireland would reject it. But they are not in a tearing hurry to get a territory which has a lot of people in it who hate it (DUP ers) and a population who will be losing the NHS - there is no NHS in Ireland.
In short, it's complicated. Which is why fucking with the GFA is not a good idea.
A no Deal Brexit will create a hard border (WTO rules require control over your economic area). Ireland (as part of the EU and the UK will have no choice. The DUP hate Ireland and hate GFA (they voted against it) and so fucking with it suits their purpose.
GFA is, in essence, a magic trick. It makes people who want to feel that way, feel like there is no border in Ireland. And people who live a border still, theoretically have one. And everyone else just gets on with life and trade etc. If you are old enough, you will remember how NOT like that life was before GFA.
Which is why fucking with the GFA is not a good idea
GFA does not need to be touched. The WA made that clear, but what it did not do was to explain how to make sure there would be no hard border between NI and ROI and was left open ended in that respect.
A port as described by LeClerc seems to be the only option.
If you are old enough, you will remember how NOT like that life was before GFA
I can remember the tension in the 70s and the bombings. Not just in NI, but in England too. Hence reason WA made it clear there shall be no hard border, but did not detail how to achieve that requirement.
That’s a brilliant explanation. Thank you. Don’t think I’ve ever seen a more succinct explanation. And your ‘magic trick’ analogy is superb ( I will be using that!!). Do you write for a living?
It makes people who want to feel that way, feel like there is no border in Ireland. And people who live a border still, theoretically have one. And everyone else just gets on with life and trade etc
So it is about intangibles and what people feel.
I would not be surprised if we eventually discover there is a very large amount of cash involved in the DUPs position. Not the money for NI they got for confidence and supply but personal money to key people.
As for the rest, the DUP are bully’s, they want to be in charge/in power and dominate other people. So being out of the EU suits that narrative.
On a referendum on a united Ireland, I think it would be thought through more than the Brexit one. There would be a Citizens Assembly first so the options and potential consequences could be explored. The recent referendum on a woman’s right to chose was an amazing example of a well considered referendum.
@LifeContinues THIS is why I am so strongly against No Deal. Food supply issues ... all that shit and people being grumpy because they don't get their unicorns. Frankly, I don't care. I'm a prepper. I'm set up at home for tough economic situations. All my family including my dd are entitled to EU passports via my late mother (an Irish born economic migrant who came to UK in the early days of the NHS to do work that British people wouldn't do). I'd rather we didn't have food supply problems and grumpiness but I am ready for it.
Screwing with GFA? I absolutely reject it.
"So it is about intangibles and what people feel." That and Actual Peace. Which is a bit more substantial than feelz.
@Rystall , that's very kind of you. No I don't write for a living. My job requires me to analyse arguments for and against. And to be polite to people I disagree with. No such constraints on here.
Seems to be that DUP is unpopular among Irish people. I hear the same about SNP from Scottish colleagues who are 50+. The younger Scots, under 30s, seem to be the opposite and think SNP are great.
No such constraints on here
Hahaha. So MN is bellinisurge's release valve to make up for the forced politeness at work.
@LifeContinues , GFA insists on no infrastructure at the border. There may well, in a few years time, be a fantastic technological solution and we will all look back and wonder what the fuss was about. That would be great. But it isn't around now. And until it turned up, we would have had the backstop.That's why it was in there. Theresa May, pandering to the DUP, made the whole of the UK tied up with the EU in a non-Brexit-y way after we left via WA. It didn't have to be like that. Make the whole of NI, in essence, a Freeport or special economic area immediately after Brexit with any checks done en route to mainland UK - with infrastructure , presumably at mainland ports if necessary.
TheEU would have had no problem with that. The only people who had a problem with that were the DUP. If they weren't propping up the Tory Government, I expect there might have been a bung to shut them up and to tell them to suck it up.
"DUP is unpopular among Irish people" you do realise what an idiotic statement that is. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
The only people who had a problem with that were the DUP
So it was the DUP who blocked the idea of Freeport/Economic Area. Sounds like they want to use Brexit to put GFA in the bin. If so how were they ever elected?
@LifeContinues - A port as described by LeClerc seems to be the only option.
Not quite. As I explained to you on a different thread, the nature of cross-border trade in Ireland means that it is impractical for that trade to go through a port. The additional cross-border cooperation in areas such as emergency services, heath etc also needs to be facilitated.
The port referred to by LeClerc would only deal with trade between NI and roUK. NI would need to remain within the CU and the SM.
I spent some time in Hong Kong before the handover. There was a Chinese economic buffer zone around it in the Shenzhen province. I freely admit not to know enough about the economic details of that but it seems like something we could have used as an idea here. Obviously current events in HK show how screwing with an international agreement and, most importantly, people's expectations of how it works based on direct experience, can lead to trouble.
Then you know fuck all about Ireland.
That's pretty unfair. Most Irish people do want a united Ireland. Polling has consistently shown that a Yes vote would win a referendum in ROI, and we know that a majority of nationalists in NI want it. I'm sure you're aware that there was a poll last year showing a majority in NI (and not just nationalists) would support unity in the event of a no deal Brexit.
I'm from Dublin and amongst my friends and family, reunification is not an issue
The clue is in the name... the DUP is the Democratic Unionist Party, and by union, they mean the union of the United Kingdom.
They are more passionate about remaining part of the UK and not becoming part of an United Ireland than literally anything else!
This is why they were so vehemently against the “backstop” as it risked NI’s customs arrangements being aligned to Ireland (and the EU) rather than the rest of the UK, if arrangements for managing frictionless trade across the Irish border hadn’t been resolved by the end of the transition period.
Hence my question, why would they support a “no-deal”, when that would you create the instability that would risk NI becoming part of Ireland, the very thing they don’t want more than anything else.
NI would need to remain within the CU and the SM
Which is why the WA was rejected. So how do you solve the cross border trade between NI and ROI?
So it was the DUP who blocked the idea of Freeport/Economic Area. Sounds like they want to use Brexit to put GFA in the bin. If so how were they ever elected?"
Quite apart from "don't you know this already", they are, or rather were, the largest party in Stormont. Just. Unlike Sinn FeinnMPs (another bunch of wankers before you think I love them) they take their seats at Westminster. So their small numbers in Westminster, combined with the Tories, were enough to prop up a minority Tory government with a "confidence and supply" arrangement. This meant that they would always support the Prime Minister in any vote of no confidence in Westminster and, generally, back any Tory legislation (supply the votes). In return, they got a big bung for NI. Disproportionate to their actual support.
Excellent summary @bellinisurge. Just one small addition. You state that Ireland doesn't have the NHS, which is correct. However, 37% of the population have a medical card which entitles them to free medical care. This is means tested. Many more, including pensioners, are entitled to free access to GPS but pay for prescriptions. Everybody is entitled to free prescriptions once they have spent a certain amount each month (I think it's around €120, so fairly high), everyone is entitled to free consultant care and free hospital treatment, although, other than in the case of an emergency, the waiting lists can be long. It's quick for things like cancer assessment, slow for a knee replacement.
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