Page 40 | Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 24-Jun-19 10:47:11

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

OP’s posts: |
prettybird Sat 29-Jun-19 21:00:09

Oh look, yet another major trade deal that the UK won't be able to benefit from after it Brexits hmm - this time with the Mercosur countries, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip193396

....and Tim Shipman is reporting that Ollie Robbins will be leaving his role after briefing the new PM hmm. Experts, who needs them? confused

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 21:27:13

No wonder senior civil servants are leaving Brexit jobs
- they want to avoid the increasing abuse as Tories / Brexiters become ever more desperate for scapegoats

Tim Shipman@ShippersUnbound

I’m told Iain Dale just read this tweet out at the Tory hustings and there was a huge cheer
.....

BREAKING:
Oliver Robbins is leaving his post as the chief Brexit negotiator shortly after briefing the new prime minister. Read The Sunday Times to find out who Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson will be replacing him with

LonelyTiredandLow Sat 29-Jun-19 21:29:27

I saw Amber Rudd commented on how 'ludicrous' Gauke's situation was, to be met with a tween from Leave saying "You're next". hmm
I think she only has a majority of 326 or something in Hastings...

LonelyTiredandLow Sat 29-Jun-19 21:31:20

*tweet

Re JC - 70 is old for a party leader...not sure if it is true but agree it's the best 'out' anyone is going to get, especially if membership is to get behind a new leader.

Peregrina Sat 29-Jun-19 22:16:56

Read The Sunday Times to find out who Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson will be replacing him with

I dread to think, but I can't see it being anyone who is a skilled negotatior.

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 22:46:24

Mystic Meg ?

prettybird Sat 29-Jun-19 22:47:26

Ministers admit that they've not made any formal assessment of the impact on a No-Deal Brexit on people with disabilities angry

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-disabled-people-impact-government-plan-a8975511.html?fbclid=IwAR1TDwhtbvXZ2UkWepNbS49hUKA9FoBNZ9SLtNl9NQxpY6Npm2o8K-OO5Do

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 22:54:04

Matthew Holehousese*_*@mattholehouse*

Boris' post-Oct 31 strategy is going to be much more interesting than his failed renegotiation.

Including how he balances the coalition in mid/late-November between those MPs who want to sue for peace and get Dover flowing,
and those who want to stick it out.

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 22:56:58

Nick Gutteridge@nick_gutteridge

Ex deputy Brexit negotiator and now top EU trade official @WeyandSabine says at a Brussels event: '

*Size matters in trade negotiations, so one should not have illusions about what you can do as an individual country in the world of today'.*

Can't imagine who she's talking about

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 23:09:24

Leave / Banks gloated over Gauke - they do seem to be the prime movers in this

Leave.EU@LeaveEUOfficial

Tomorrow we claim our first Cabinet scalp as @DavidGauke is up for deselection in South West Herts.

With a new leader and potential election, now is the time to make the Conservative party conservative again. If we fail? The Brexit Party wipes the floor with them. Win win!

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 23:20:05

An example of when you ^should^ get rid of an MP:
when he keeps taking vacations paid by foreign govts and doesn't even declare them

DUP has lost patience with Ian Paisley in wake of latest holiday claims

He has no shame
and didn't learn his lesson after his previous scandal

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-has-lost-patience-with-ian-paisley-in-wake-of-latest-holiday-claims-38257656.html

A senior DUP source said: "It is not a case of losing patience with Ian jnr - patience has already been lost with him."
...
one of a number of undeclared luxury family holidays he reportedly took was paid for by a former minister in the Maldives government,
while another trip had also been complimentary.
...
Mr Paisley was suspended from the House of Commons in 2018 for 30 days for "serious misconduct" for failing to declare two family holidays to Sri Lanka in 2013.

Peregrina Sat 29-Jun-19 23:51:53

Leave / Banks gloated over Gauke - they do seem to be the prime movers in this

They gloated too soon - he won his vote comfortably. Didn't he also question whether one of the prime movers should even be in the Tory party since he plans to stand as a Brexit party candidate?

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 23:57:15

It was "^now is the time to make the Conservative party conservative again^" that got me

It's far more right wing than it's ever been

Icantreachthepretzels Sat 29-Jun-19 23:57:53

Including how he balances the coalition in mid/late-November between those MPs who want to sue for peace and get Dover flowing,

"sue for peace" - for crying out loud! We.Are.Not.At.War I wish MPs and journos would remember that.

make the Conservative party conservative again.
By crashing out of an economic trading partnership that has lasted 40 years, breaking the spirit of an international peace treaty and putting lives in danger, risking breaking up the union and causing food and medication shortages amongst the populace? They keep using the word 'conservative' ... I don't think it means what they think it means.

I thought David Gauke had survived the no confidence vote - and survived it pretty decisively - how are the leave campaign claiming a victory?

BigChocFrenzy Sat 29-Jun-19 23:58:40

It does illustrate that they have infilitrated the Tory party and are trying to remake it even further right

BigChocFrenzy Sun 30-Jun-19 00:01:17

They claim they win either way
They claim the Faragist will unseat Gauke - and the others they don't manage to deselect - in the next GE

imo, they'll split the right vote and possibly let in LDem or Lab to unseat them

BigChocFrenzy Sun 30-Jun-19 00:05:46

The rightwing regard it as war, because the Tories will look very silly when the EU doesn't give in.

These are people who can't admit to having massively fucked up the country,
so instead they have to claim an enemy fucked it up

Iambuffy Sun 30-Jun-19 08:28:43

BJ basically promising the moon on a stick I see....

ZaZathecat Sun 30-Jun-19 08:54:45

buffy I was just hearing on LBC that BJ is saying he'll get rid of Stamp Duty. £13 billion was raised through stamp duty last year so there's another massive cut to services.

Iambuffy Sun 30-Jun-19 08:55:59

£4 billion to education too.

Iambuffy Sun 30-Jun-19 08:56:55

What we have to grasp us that there will be money to spend...
Because there will be no more NHS.
It workers rights
It welfare state
So...yeah.
Theres money alright.

Iambuffy Sun 30-Jun-19 08:57:23

or
No idea where "it" came from!

Iambuffy Sun 30-Jun-19 09:05:47

Is there a new thread?

howabout Sun 30-Jun-19 09:21:57

Re Stamp Duty Labour also has proposals to abolish it as part of its reform of Land and Buildings taxes. Not seen detailed proposals from Boris as he is being quite careful not to commit to anything but wouldn't be surprised if his proposals were similar. ie Likely to be cost neutral to the Exchequer or indeed tax raising.

howabout Sun 30-Jun-19 09:25:43

Boris' take on Stormzy smile

publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FPA%2Fstatus%2F1145042039849070592&widget=Tweet

This thread is not accepting new messages.