Page 2 | Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 24-Jun-19 10:47:11

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

OP’s posts: |
1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 12:37:11

I believe there is already some expression in A50/A49 text that says that re invoking of A50 must be done for a 'valid purpose' or some other expression that is a bit open to interpretation, however it will be tightened up after this fiasco.

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 12:43:49

You are looking at these issues as an 'entitled Englander' not as an European.

I spat my tea out there. Haha.

As I am a Scot living in Belgium, you could not be further from the truth.

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 12:50:48

{As I am a Scot living in Belgium,}

It is the attitude, not where you came from or where you live now that is the issue.

Bearbehind Mon 24-Jun-19 12:51:04

As I am a Scot living in Belgium, you could not be further from the truth.

Which I think rather proves your point about people not stating as fact things which are their opinions. 😂

Bearbehind Mon 24-Jun-19 12:52:25

Apparently Johnson has refused another debate on Sky with Hunt.

Surely he can’t keep doing this and still get people’s votes?

Peregrina Mon 24-Jun-19 12:54:02

Why did Johnson get so many votes from MPs in the first place?

Bearbehind Mon 24-Jun-19 12:54:10

It is the attitude, not where you came from or where you live now that is the issue.

PMSL - I’m pretty sure I’ve never heard of a Scot who is an entitled Englander!

Bearbehind Mon 24-Jun-19 12:54:50

Why did Johnson get so many votes from MPs in the first place?

Lack of options maybe?

Zipee Mon 24-Jun-19 12:57:35

He'll still be selected by the party faithful, Hunt voted remain and that's all they care about.

Good.

The Tories will be finished for a generation afterwards.

Peregrina Mon 24-Jun-19 13:02:14

The Tories will be finished for a generation afterwards.

Please let that be so. But not if its replaced by a party led by Farage.

TheMShip Mon 24-Jun-19 13:02:20

Wow some of you have got snippy lately grin. It's been very interesting to read, clearly a lot of passion here.

Just thought I'd pop in the latest Brexit flowchart, I know it's a couple weeks old but it's easy enough to exclude the Johnson not being in top two option. jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/. He has us with GE before 31 Oct: 71%, PV: 7%, heading for no deal on 31st (but no attempt to predict if we actually will): 20%, deal: 2%.

BoreOfWhabylon Mon 24-Jun-19 13:07:26

pmk

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 13:16:53

Geez - what is my attitude exactly?

You're coming across as a wee bit silly now, Leclerc.

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 13:23:34

Moi?

NotJustACigar Mon 24-Jun-19 13:24:28

Pmk thanks Red.

RHTawneyonabus Mon 24-Jun-19 13:24:41

I hope BJ becomes PM and it becomes an extreme illustration of being careful what you wish for. Then Brexiteers can’t blame the coming clusterfuck on Hunt for not being a ‘true brexiter’

Parliament summer recess dates have been published but site is still saying that this session is expected to last until ‘the summer’ with a new PM surely September should be a new session, but no one has called this. Do they even have a legislative programme let alone one which could be voted through?

Icantreachthepretzels Mon 24-Jun-19 13:26:01

I think your plan is sensible Motheroffourdragons - it admits that we are at an impasse, it doesn't rule out leave forever - it just gives us more time, it puts the onus on leaving squarely on the people who own it and offers a democratic resolution at the end, should leavers ever get their act together.

I think it is actually a far better plan than a P.V. But there doesn't seem to be even a whisper of it in the eschelons of power, probably because they would be too afraid to do something so decisive.

I would point out that they would have to nail down the fact that the 'leave' plan couldn't be scribbled on the back of a napkin. It would have to be fully costed, it would have to be one of Barnier's staircase of options, it would have to be checked by experts (from both sides - no self selecting 'experts') and parliament would have to vote to agree that the plan was a viable one before they voted to put it to a referendum.
They should make the next referendum - should it happen - binding with all the safeguards in place that they did not bother with last time - supermajority and all 4 countries agreeing to it.

I would also argue that if there was a genuine plan to leave, which had been voted on, that the government knew exactly what it was doing when it came to leaving and had a map to follow and a new mandate, then that would satisfy the 'valid purpose' clause of reinvoking Article 50.

SistemaAddict Mon 24-Jun-19 13:27:18

PMK

Mistigri Mon 24-Jun-19 13:27:45

Just catching up ...

Although there may not be a formal time limit set on re invoking A50, you can bet that the EP is working on legislation to prevent it within a certain time frame

I believe this would require treaty change, not a "simple" change of legislation. This is not on the cards.

Four weeks is a long time in politics and a man with Johnson's lack of impulse control, lack of morals and lack of judgement could easily lose it in that time.

He's obviously still odds-on favourite but I wouldn't rule out Hunt.

Hunt looks to be playing a clever game here: promise no-deal but be open about trade offs. I presume that he is betting that when push comes to shove and people are faced with actual choices they will not choose to trigger the no-deal suicide bomber vest. Given that there are no good Brexit strategies for a Tory leadership candidate, it may be the least-worst approach.

I agree that a GE is highly probable now - actually i think there's a good chance that we will have more than one GE in the next year.

Mistigri Mon 24-Jun-19 13:31:50

Why did Johnson get so many votes from MPs in the first place?

Among remainers, and non head-banging brexiters, it comes down to pure self-interest: they think Johnson is the Tory's best chance of out-Faraging Farage, and thereby allowing them to hang onto their seats.

Mistigri Mon 24-Jun-19 13:32:13

Ugh sorry apostrophe fail there.

TokyoSushi Mon 24-Jun-19 13:41:54

PMK - what a time to be alive!

I too think that BJ is potentially fucking it up on purpose, surely he must know as PM everybody is going to look to him for the answers, and he doesn't have any! It's almost like he thought it was a good idea at the time and now it's gone a bit too far and he's trying to backtrack. This hiding from the press is ridiculous.

Hunt is clearly milking the chaos and no shows for all they're worth whilst at the same time trying to maintain that he's more interested in Johnson's policy than personal life.

With 4 weeks left to go, it seems that once again, we're in for a bumpier ride than we first thought!

PS those photos from 'yesterday' are utterly ludicrous, amateur PR at its very worst!

ContinuityError Mon 24-Jun-19 13:42:48

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

I think it’s currently down to 2, now that Brecon and Radnorshire is vacant.

grannycake Mon 24-Jun-19 13:42:56

I had a reply from my very good constituency Labour MP. I wrote to tell her that regrettably I would not be able to vote for her in any GE as the vote would appear to be counted as a vote for Brexit. This is what she said:

*Thank you for continued correspondence with me regarding Brexit. Thank you for your honesty regarding your voting intentions. I can assure you that any vote for me in a subsequent election will not be seen as a vote in favour of Brexit. Considering the voting history of Gower constituency, any vote that is not a Labour vote is effectively a Tory vote and a vote which enables Brexit.

My position remains unchanged. A version of Brexit that does not leave Gower worse off is yet to materialize and I cannot vote for a government deal that poses harm to my constituents. I will only support a Brexit deal in Parliament if it is put back to the people with an option to remain in the EU. I will continue to make the case that Britain’s best future is as a member of the European Union.

I am pleased that First Minister Mark Drakeford has confirmed that Welsh Labour’s position is now to campaign for a second referendum. Furthermore, Welsh Labour will now be campaigning to remain in the EU in every instance*

However, she then goes on to say that Parliament will stop no deal - I am not sure that this can happen so at the moment my position is unchanged but watch this space

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 13:45:08

I agree with you pretzels - any plan would have to be properly done, it would need cross party support and be actionable and costed.

These are huge problems though with the current government and opposition as we have already had 3 years during which time nothing has happened.

I don't hold out much hope for it smile

I fear both a Johnson govt and a Hunt one - neither fill me with any hope for the future, I also fear a gen election as we might just get a whole host of Brexit party numpties and lose valuable MPs who are remain but represent leave constituencies.

And with still no clear position from the labour party nor any pact between other remain parties it is all such a horrible mess.

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