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Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 24-Jun-19 10:47:11

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

DGRossetti Mon 24-Jun-19 10:51:14

First !

prettybird Mon 24-Jun-19 11:00:40

I posted this towards the end of the last thread, a FB post written 3 years ago. Nothing much has changed since then sad - although the kittens have grown wink (Contrived regal cat marking) grin

What's on my mind?

The sadness that a Right Wing coup has been enacted on the backs of a (conned) Left Wing protest vote.
Pride that Scotland was not conned.
Anger that the young will have to pay for the selfishness and short sightedness of the old.
Fear of a de-stabilised Europe, a rise of extremism and a risk to the peace not just of Europe but of the world.
A sense of "I told you so" to those who voted No in the Indyref because they believed in Europe.
Annoyance that the Remain campaign didn't challenge the immigration arguments when they were conflated with the Refugee crisis.
Annoyance that they didn't challenge the lies about the lack of democracy.
Annoyance that it wasn't explained to the electorate what a tiny proportion of overall government spending the EU "takes".
Annoyance that the journalists and Main Stream Media didn't do their jobs so that this was exposed, so it was left to the keyboard warriors on Social Media to do this - meaning a reduced reach, especially to the old.
Anger that the poor will pay for this while the rich will profit.
Fear that the EU protections (of the environment, of workers' rights, of consumers' rights, of public safety) will be diluted or removed.
Irritation that some people didn't read beyond the (misleading or downright lying) headlines and check out the facts and figures that were being quoted.

All of this tempered ever so slightly by a glimmer of hope that this might leave to Scottish Independence - but I don't think as a nation we're ready yet for yet another referendum too soon, much as I'd like one. But here's hoping.

frozendaisy Mon 24-Jun-19 11:03:49

BoJo will alter the Withdrawal Agreement by three words, the ERG will reluctantly vote it through after much backroom promises, it will be sold as a totally new philosophical deal. And no one in the country will be happy.

Slowly but surely companies based in the UK will relocate because we won't be the "gateway to Europe" anymore, any trade deals will include relaxed visa rules for those countries, which the UK will have to take it or leave it. Yeah everyone will be cross for different reasons but still cross.

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 11:04:10

Another morning departed with no progress.

bellinisurge Mon 24-Jun-19 11:07:40

Pmk with thanks to Red

borntobequiet Mon 24-Jun-19 11:16:16

PMK
www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/fking-grasses-will-get-theirs-when-im-pm-vows-johnson-20190624186900

Ellie56 Mon 24-Jun-19 11:18:45

And if Twat Boris becomes PM it definitely will be worse.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood Mon 24-Jun-19 11:28:31

I think the only way forward is a complete do-over (that’s probably not a political term).

Revoke article 50 with a view to rerunning the referendum.

Give the Brexiters 6 months to come up with a Brexit proposal (Canada, Norway whatever). It will be Rees Mogg, Gove, Farage and Johnson doing this so they may need a few extensions as I can’t see them agreeing quickly.

Re run the referendum on a Remain vs an actual articulated plan for Leave.

I think we might get Hunt as PM, Johnson is fucking this up.

StripeyChina Mon 24-Jun-19 11:29:40

PMK. Thanks, Red
Re your OP - the Tory party is morally bankrupt and it will get worse

GeistohneGrenzen Mon 24-Jun-19 11:33:59

.

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 11:44:02

PMK. Thank you again, Red.

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 11:46:11

{Revoke article 50 with a view to rerunning the referendum. }
Since the UK had buggered around for 3 years already, I feel the EU will find a way of ensuring that A50 can't be retriggered within a good 10 to 15 years or more.
Currently they are hamstrung by not wishing to look as if they are pushing the UK out. It is hurting the EU economy and it is 'very unpleasant' but I feel that unless something decisive happens by the end of October the gloves will come off.

Bearbehind Mon 24-Jun-19 11:49:29

Johnson is fucking this up.

Deliberately

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 11:53:00

How can the EU control how and when we revoke and re-invoke?

That is not possible.

We have the right to revoke at any time - if we re-invoke quickly and with no well thought out plan, well they can hammer us at that point, but there is no way they can choose what we do.

That does seem to suggest we actually don't have any sovereignty right enough.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 24-Jun-19 12:00:39

We also have the video of Bannon saying how he advised Johnson. Few seem to care about this in the media.

Zipee Mon 24-Jun-19 12:05:38

Yes the relationship with Bannon, a white supremacist whose media outlet is the source of the most virulent antisemitism, is ignored, as is the fact that he associates with groups that go to American College towns and recreate Nazi torch marches chanting "Jews will not replace us."

Rather suggesting that the constant referrals in the media anti semitism in the Labour party is for political expediency. I also note how the Jewish Chronicle don't say anything about it.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall Mon 24-Jun-19 12:07:22

thanks red

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 12:10:42

{How can the EU control how and when we revoke and re-invoke?}

The UK Prime Minister has until 31 October to revoke.
Although there may not be a formal time limit set on re invoking A50, you can bet that the EP is working on legislation to prevent it within a certain time frame, and if the UK does leave, it will not have a representative in the EU to influence new legislation. While the UK economy is suffering due to Brexit, all of the EU are suffering too and it is not their 'choice' the UK is forcing it to happen. They will not want any chance of a 'rerun'.
If it were another country leaving, how happy would you be at having to pay (through taxation probably) around £600 a year because of the changes necessary.

TheABC Mon 24-Jun-19 12:10:56

Watching with interest. I don't think one police incident is enough to cross Johnson off the list (yet), but there are four weeks to go and he now facing a dedicated opponent.

NoWordForFluffy Mon 24-Jun-19 12:18:21

@howabout, please link that poll. 48% of whom want no deal? I'm pretty sure it's not the whole electorate.

Therefore, until I know the % of the electorate it refers to, my point remains that I'm not sure there's a huge % of the whole electorate wanting no deal.

NoWordForFluffy Mon 24-Jun-19 12:19:00

Sorry, PMK. My manners escaped me!

Motheroffourdragons Mon 24-Jun-19 12:20:16

you can bet that the EP is working on legislation to prevent it within a certain time frame, and if the UK does leave, it will not have a representative in the EU to influence new legislation.

If that were true we would know about it as we are still in.

So no, I don't think so.

It might be something to consider for the future, if the EU really is intent on causing problems to its member states. But I don't think it is.

I think somebody said before on another thread, we should be very careful what we say as it can be construed as fact. This is your opinion, your thoughts.

Currently the most obvious solution to me is to revoke a50, consider all options, come up with a plan that actually works if we still believe leave is the best option, vote on that vs remain in a PV and then if we still must leave after that, as we will know what we need to do at that point, we can re-invoke a50.

I can't see a problem with this.

And yes, Steve Bannon is a horror story. Guy Verhofstadt picked it up this morning.

Guy Verhofstadt

Verified account

@guyverhofstadt
3h3 hours ago
More
Worrying that the potential PM of a powerful European nation would have anything to do with Steve Bannon; a man who supports far-right parties & wishes to destroy the European Union.

Peregrina Mon 24-Jun-19 12:33:11

It might be something to consider for the future, if the EU really is intent on causing problems to its member states. But I don't think it is.

It might be legislation they chose to bring in to stop another country messing about for 3 years and getting nowhere - wasting everyone else's time and money.

1tisILeClerc Mon 24-Jun-19 12:34:07

{If that were true we would know about it as we are still in.}

There will be a lot of things in the 'committee' stage that MEPs and others have little or no knowledge of.

{It might be something to consider for the future, if the EU really is intent on causing problems to its member states.}

The UK would not be a 'member state' when it leaves. The EU is a 'club' and both can and will change it's rules to suit the club.

{I think somebody said before on another thread, we should be very careful what we say as it can be construed as fact. This is your opinion, your thoughts. }

While this is true, I suspect the leaders of 27 countries that are having their economies trashed by the UK will be having a jolly good think about how to prevent it in the future. You are looking at these issues as an 'entitled Englander' not as an European.

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